Judd Devermont and Jon Temin132 μ£¥³¤ ¬μμ¬
regularly changed hands through coups—87 times between 1950 and
2010, according to one count.
Africa’s new set oÊ leaders includes former military dictators
turned democrats, party loyalists who steadily moved up the ranks,
and a few political outsiders, among them a disc jockey, a business
magnate, and a former soccer star. Five o them will prove espe-
cially pivotal: Abiy Ahmed o Ethio-
pia, João Lourenço o Angola, Cyril
Ramaphosa o South Africa, Félix
Tshisekedi o the Democratic Repub-
lic o the Congo, and Muhammadu
Buhari o Nigeria. These leaders pre-
side over countries that make up nearly hal the population o sub-
Saharan Africa, include four o the region’s Ãve largest economies,
and have some o the continent’s strongest militaries. And all o
them claim to reject the corruption and misrule associated with
their predecessors.
This is not the Ãrst time Africa has seen a wave o new leaders who
inspired optimism. In the 1990s, a fresh cohort o rebels turned poli-
ticians presented themselves as democratic reformers, including Isaias
Afwerki o Eritrea, Paul Kagame o Rwanda, Meles Zenawi o Ethi-
opia, and Yoweri Museveni o Uganda. But the accompanying enthu-
siasm proved misplaced: all made turns toward authoritarianism and,
with the exception o Meles, who died in oce in 2012, remain in
power to this day. Whatever their lofty promises, it turns out, those
who come to power through the gun rarely transform into demo-
crats. Today’s class o new leaders seeking a break with the past en-
tered oce peacefully, through elections—however imperfect—or
other constitutional processes. Their legitimacy comes not from their
military prowess but from their reformist agendas.
As the leaders o Ãve key African states, Abiy, Lourenço, Ramaphosa,
Tshisekedi, and Buhari could shape the region for years to come. The
choices they make when it comes to navigating domestic challenges,
pursuing reforms, and wielding their inÁuence beyond their borders
will go a long way toward determining whether the region stagnates or
thrives. And although revanchist forces always threaten tentative gains,
there is good reason for optimism: the popular pressures that led to
change in these countries, through protest and the ballot box, will press
the leaders to follow through on their promises.The leaders of £ve key
African states could shape
the region for years to come.