Judd Devermont and Jon Temin
136 μ£¥³¤ ¬μμ¬
Last year, he reversed his country’s vote in the ¤ General Assembly
in order to condemn human rights abuses in Myanmar. South Africa
is the only African member o the G-20 and the most powerful mem-
ber o the Southern African Development Community. I Ramaphosa
manages to clean up his country’s politics and reform its economy,
South Africa could act as an engine o growth for the whole region.
And iÊ he expands its global voice, too, the country could serve as a
global champion o conÁict resolution, drawing on its experience o
ending apartheid 25 years ago.
Congo’s road to reform is far rockier. Even though he is steering
his country through its Ãrst peaceful transfer o power, Tshisekedi
became president in dubious circumstances. Most observers agree
that another opposition candidate actually won the elections held in
December 2018, even though Tshisekedi was declared the victor. The
surprise result fueled speculation that Tshisekedi had struck a deal
that would allow Joseph Kabila, the country’s outgoing authoritarian
leader, to retain inÁuence out o power. Any such deal will continue
to constrain Tshisekedi. So will his party’s lack o a majority in par-
liament, which means that he has to negotiate with Kabila to appoint
his prime minister and cabinet.
Yet as Lourenço has shown in Angola, sometimes new leaders can
untether themselves from their patrons. So far, Tshisekedi has freed
about 700 political prisoners, appointed a competent national secu-
rity adviser who is not beholden to Kabila, and pledged to revive the
Congolese economy. Despite Tshisekedi’s limited room for maneu-
ver, in Congo’s ever-shifting political landscape, he may be able to
pick o defectors from Kabila’s coalition and expand his own power
base. He also has the beneÃt o strong support from the United
States and other inÁuential countries, which chose to overlook the
undemocratic nature oÊ his ascent.
The size o western Europe, Congo boasts vast stores o natural re-
sources and the potential to generate up to 100,000 megawatts oÊ hydro-
power (second only to China and Russia in this regard). IÊ Tshisekedi
earnestly tries to address Congo’s endemic insecurity, contain its devas-
tating Ebola outbreak, and responsibly manage its immense mineral
wealth, he can reap dramatic dividends that should prove popular among
Congolese. The prospect o a stable Congo—a long-standing basket case
that borders nine countries—could obviate the need for the 20,000-strong
¤ peacekeeping mission there and reduce regional tensions.