Africa’s Democratic Moment?July/August 2019 137
Nigeria, with a population o nearly 200 million people, has long
been Africa’s would-be heavyweight, full o potential but plagued by
poor leadership, corruption, and insecurity. Change was supposed to
come in 2015 with the election as president o Buhari, who, even
though he was a military head o state in the early 1980s, campaigned
on a promise to Ãght corruption. In a few ways, Buhari has made good
on his promise, Ãghting some corruption, increasing infrastructure
investment, and streamlining govern-
ment Ãnances. But he has turned out
to be less dynamic than hoped. He has
spent several months in London over
the last four years for medical treat-
ment and has failed to inspire Nigeri-
ans outside his base in the country’s
north. Only 35 percent o Nigerians
turned out for the February 2019 elec-
tions that gave him a second term, the lowest participation rate on
record since the country’s transition to civilian rule, in 1999. The pri-
vate sector is especially wary oÊ his economic instincts and failed to
respond to his win with a stock market rally—a Ãrst for Nigeria.
Crucially, however, he has opened up space for a new cadre o re-
formers, in the cabinet and at the state level, who are now waiting in
the wings. Buhari has never Ãt into Nigeria’s political class. He never
sought to build a patronage network, and he has consistently pressed
for cleaner government and a strong work ethic among civil servants.
However inconsistently, he has promoted Nigerian leaders who share
these values and sidelined politicians who do not.
Nigeria’s energetic vice president, Yemi Osinbajo, exempliÃes the
country’s potential. During Buhari’s trips to London, Osinbajo has
stepped in as acting president and showcased a pragmatic and inclu-
sive style oÊ leadership. Notably, he agreed to devalue the naira to
narrow the gap between ocial exchange rates and black-market
rates, and he traveled to the oil-rich Niger Delta to lower tensions
there. His successful stints in power have increased his proÃle as a
potential candidate in elections in 2023. Other up-and-comers in-
clude Peter Obi, a former governor and the opposition’s most recent
vice-presidential candidate, who has won plaudits for his economic
management oÊ his state, and Kashim Shettima, a former governor
who ably facilitated humanitarian assistance to war-ravaged north-
Ethiopia’s profound
improvements in
individual rights could
have a spillover eect
across East Africa.