Judd Devermont and Jon Temin
138 μ£¥³¤ ¬μμ¬
eastern Nigeria. Reform under Buhari will continue to be slow, but
he has set the stage for the next generation oÊ leaders to quicken the
pace o change.THE PATH TO PROGRESS
Two main obstacles stand in the way o these countries’ democratic
progress. The Ãrst is economic stagnation. Africa’s overall ³²¡ is fore-
cast to grow by around three percent in 2019, dragged down by even
slower growth rates in Angola, Nigeria, and South Africa, all o which
have been hit hard by the recent slump in commodity prices. I growth
rates don’t improve, it will be nearly impossible for these countries’
new leaders to sustain reforms and reduce dangerous levels o unem-
ployment. But even in a period o weak commodity prices, Lourenço,
Buhari, and Ramaphosa can undertake reforms that would boost
growth. Nigeria should shift to a single exchange rate to attract foreign
investment; it and South Africa should reform their bloated state-
owned companies; and it and Angola should reduce their reliance on
oil revenues. Abiy and Tshisekedi, by contrast, have the wind at their
backs, with Ethiopia’s economy growing at over seven percent (thanks
largely to a more attractive climate for investors) and Congo’s growing
at over Ãve percent (in part due to public investments in infrastruc-
ture). All Ãve leaders have pledged to diversify their economies, re-
duce corruption, and attract foreign investment. Their predecessors
said the same things, but unlike them, these leaders face real pressure
to deliver on these promises or face the wrath o their people.
The second obstacle is political. Each o the Ãve leaders is engaged
in a high-wire act, trying to pursue reforms without triggering a back-
lash. Abiy, Lourenço, Ramaphosa, and Tshisekedi are mindful o the
still powerful reactionary forces within their coalitions that are associ-
ated with the ancien régime. I these leaders move too fast, rivals may
clip their wings or lead a party revolt. (Buhari, by contrast, is at risk
o moving too slowly and providing an opening to his opponents.)
Abiy has already encountered Ãrsthand the consequences o charging
ahead, with several politicians tied to the previous regime loudly op-
posing his reforms. Ramaphosa, for his part, presides over an African
National Congress divided between factions loyal to him and those
loyal to Zuma and risks the ire o the senior party ocials who stand
to lose from a crackdown on large-scale corruption. Tshisekedi is in
the most precarious position o all. Kabila, his predecessor, is still