Africa’s Democratic Moment?July/August 2019 139
relatively young, and his party remains dominant. He will not go qui-
etly into retirement, especially iÊ his substantial wealth is threatened.
These leaders will need to discern when to press forward and when
to slow down, getting the buy-in o would-be opponents without
abandoning bold aspirations. Abiy, for instance, could build more
internal consensus before rushing to announce his next big idea, a
step that would preempt political pushback and pave the way for
swifter implementation. Ramaphosa will need to respond delicately
to demands for land expropriation, addressing the legitimate con-
cerns oÊ his base without scaring o investors and threatening com-
mercial agriculture.
I the Ãve leaders get the economics and politics right, then they
could set o a virtuous cycle o reform. First, economic prospects
improve, the result o a combination o economic diversiÃcation, in-
creased foreign investment, and reduced corruption. That, in turn,
strengthens their hand and helps them navigate political obstacles.
As their popularity increases, they have more incentive to double
down on existing reforms and build support for new ones. Investor
conÃdence increases, economic growth accelerates, and the old guard
becomes further marginalized.
I this cycle repeats across enough o the Ãve countries, a broader
narrative o regional reform could take hold, building pressure on
other African countries to follow the same path. Ethiopia’s profound
improvements in individual rights, for example, could have a spillover
eect across East Africa, emboldening antigovernment protesters in
Uganda and elsewhere and convincing the military dictatorship in Er-
itrea to open up. In Congo, Tshisekedi has denounced his predeces-
sor’s human rights record and promised that he “will be making a
clean break with everything.” IÊ he really does, the new standard he
will be setting for governance in central Africa could increase the
pressure on neighboring leaders, most o whom have been in power
for two or more decades, to walk back some o their most egregious
abuses o power.
Something similar could happen economically. Stagnation in An-
gola, Nigeria, and South Africa brings down Africa’s overall growth
rates, but under better economic management, the three largest econo-
mies in sub-Saharan Africa could drive up foreign investment outside
their borders as companies use these markets as gateways to the re-
gion. Corruption in all the countries also inhibits growth, and i Abiy,