NICHOLAS EBERSTADT is Henry Wendt Chair in Political Economy at the American
Enterprise Institute.146 μ£¥³¤ ¬μμ¬
With Great Demographics
Comes Great Power
Why Population Will Drive Geopolitics
Nicholas Eberstadt
D
emographics may not be destiny, but for students o geo-
politics, they come close. Although conventional measures
o economic and military power often receive more atten-
tion, few factors inÁuence the long-term competition between great
powers as much as changes in the size, capabilities, and characteristics
o national populations.
The United States is a case in point. In 1850, the United States was
home to some 23 million people, 13 million fewer than France. Today,
the U.S. population is close to 330 million, larger than the British,
Dutch, French, German, and Italian populations combined. For more
than a century, the United States has had the world’s largest skilled
work force, and by measures such as mean years o adult schooling, it
has long had among the world’s most highly educated populations. These
favorable demographic fundamentals, more than geography or natu-
ral resources, explain why the United States emerged as the world’s
preeminent economic and military power after World War II—and
why it still occupies that position today.
Yet past performance is no guarantee o future results. Thanks in
large part to demographics, rival states such as China have become gen-
uine great-power competitors over the past few decades. The United
States, meanwhile, has eroded or squandered its demographic edge in a
number o ways, even as its traditional allies in Europe and Asia have
struggled with population stagnation or decline. So far, the damage to
U.S. power has been limited by the fact that the United States’ main
geopolitical rivals face serious demographic problems o their own. Gaz-Return to Table of Contents