With Great Demographics Comes Great Power
July/August 2019 151
The end o 2,500 years o family tradition will be a departure into
the unknown for Chinese civilization—and Beijing is manifestly un-
prepared for this impending great leap.
THE RUSSIAN PARADOX
For Russia, the demographic outlook may be even worse. The Kremlin
sees itsel as helming a global power, yet its grandiose self-conception
is badly mismatched with the human resources at its disposal. From
the standpoint o population and human capital, Russia looks like a
power in the grip o all but irremediable decline.
In some respects, Russia is a typical European country: it has an
aging, shrinking population and diculties assimilating the low-
skilled immigrant work force on which its economy increasingly de-
pends. When it comes to human capital, however, Russia faces an
acute crisis. After fully hal a century o stagnation or regression,
Russia has Ãnally seen an improvement over the last decade in the
overall health o its people, as evidenced by measures such as life
expectancy at birth. But the situation is still dire. In 2016, according
to the World Health Organization, 15-year-old Russian males could
expect to live another 52.3 years: slightly less than their counterparts
in Haiti. Fifteen-year-old Russian females, although better o than
the males, had a life expectancy only slightly above the range for the
¤’s roster oÊ least developed countries.
In addition to its health problems, Russia is failing in knowledge
production. Call it “the Russian paradox”: high levels o schooling,
low levels oÊ human capital. Despite an ostensibly educated citizenry,
Russia (with a population o 145 million) earns fewer patents each year
from the U.S. Patent and Trademark Oce than the state o Alabama
(population: Ãve million). Russia earns less from service exports than
Denmark, with its population o six million, and has less privately
held wealth than Sweden, with a population o ten million. And since
Russia’s working-age population is set to age and shrink between 2015
and 2040, its relative economic potential will diminish, too.
Ambitious revisionist states such as Russia can, for a time, punch
above their weight in international aairs. Yet for all o Russian Pres-
ident Vladimir Putin’s foreign meddling and military adventurism,
his country is facing demographic constraints that will make it ex-
traordinarily dicult for him and his successors to maintain, much
less seriously improve, Russia’s geopolitical position.