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(Kiana) #1
With Great Demographics Comes Great Power

July/August 2019 151


The end o” 2,500 years o• family tradition will be a departure into
the unknown for Chinese civilization—and Beijing is manifestly un-


prepared for this impending great leap.


THE RUSSIAN PARADOX
For Russia, the demographic outlook may be even worse. The Kremlin


sees itsel” as helming a global power, yet its grandiose self-conception
is badly mismatched with the human resources at its disposal. From
the standpoint o” population and human capital, Russia looks like a
power in the grip o” all but irremediable decline.


In some respects, Russia is a typical European country: it has an
aging, shrinking population and di–culties assimilating the low-
skilled immigrant work force on which its economy increasingly de-
pends. When it comes to human capital, however, Russia faces an


acute crisis. After fully hal” a century o” stagnation or regression,
Russia has Ãnally seen an improvement over the last decade in the
overall health o” its people, as evidenced by measures such as life
expectancy at birth. But the situation is still dire. In 2016, according


to the World Health Organization, 15-year-old Russian males could
expect to live another 52.3 years: slightly less than their counterparts
in Haiti. Fifteen-year-old Russian females, although better o than
the males, had a life expectancy only slightly above the range for the


š¤’s roster oÊ least developed countries.
In addition to its health problems, Russia is failing in knowledge
production. Call it “the Russian paradox”: high levels o” schooling,
low levels oÊ human capital. Despite an ostensibly educated citizenry,


Russia (with a population o” 145 million) earns fewer patents each year
from the U.S. Patent and Trademark O–ce than the state o” Alabama
(population: Ãve million). Russia earns less from service exports than
Denmark, with its population o” six million, and has less privately


held wealth than Sweden, with a population o” ten million. And since
Russia’s working-age population is set to age and shrink between 2015
and 2040, its relative economic potential will diminish, too.
Ambitious revisionist states such as Russia can, for a time, punch


above their weight in international aairs. Yet for all o• Russian Pres-
ident Vladimir Putin’s foreign meddling and military adventurism,
his country is facing demographic constraints that will make it ex-
traordinarily di–cult for him and his successors to maintain, much


less seriously improve, Russia’s geopolitical position.

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