Nicholas Eberstadt
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per year. But immigration is an intrinsically political phenomenon. In
the past, the United States has decided to all but shut o immigration
in response to domestic turbulence, and it may do so again.
Even with these troubling signs o decline, no rival is likely to over-
take the United States in terms o raw human potential anytime soon.
China and India, for instance, may have more college-educated work-
ers than the United States does by 2040, but the superior quality o
U.S. higher education will weigh heavily in the United States’ favor,
and the United States will almost certainly still have the world’s larg-
est pool o workers with graduate degrees. I U.S. demographic and
human resource indicators continue to stagnate or regress, however,
Americans may lose their appetite for playing a leading role in inter-
national aairs. Isolationism and populism could thrive, and the U.S.
electorate could be unwilling to bear the considerable costs o main-
taining the international order. There is also a nontrivial risk that the
United States’ relatively disappointing trends in health and education
will harm its long-term economic performance.
To avoid these outcomes, the United States will need to revitalize
its human resource base and restore its dynamism in business, health,
and education. Doing so will be immensely dicult—a far-reaching
undertaking that is beyond the powers o the federal government
alone. The Ãrst step, however, is for Americans o all political persua-
sions to recognize the urgency o the task.AGING ALLIES
Even as they try to put U.S. demographic trends back on track,
American policymakers should also begin considering what U.S.
strategy should look like in a world in which demographic advantages
no longer guarantee U.S. hegemony. One appealing solution would
be to rely more on traditional U.S. partners. Japan’s ³²¡ is nearly
four times as large as Russia’s on an exchange-rate basis, and although
its total population is slightly smaller than Russia’s, it has a larger
cadre oÊ highly skilled workers. The current population o the ¥ is
around 512 million, nearly 200 million more than that o the United
States, and its economy is still substantially larger than China’s on an
exchange-rate basis.
The trouble is that many oÊ Washington’s traditional allies face even
more daunting demographic challenges than does the United States.
The ¥ member states and Japan, for instance, all have healthy, well-