Nicholas Eberstadt
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over the coming decades. The United States, in other words, will be-
come ever more valuable to its aging security partners at the same
time as they become less valuable to Washington—all while the United
States’ own demographic advantage is beginning to erode.MAKING NEW FRIENDS
Yet even as population trends sap the strength o traditional powers in
Europe and East Asia, they are propelling a whole new set o coun-
tries, many o them potential U.S. allies and partners, toward great-
power status. By courting these rising powers, U.S. policymakers can
strengthen the international order for decades to come.
Washington should begin by turning its attention to South and
Southeast Asia. As Japan and South Korea lose population, for in-
stance, emerging democracies such as Indonesia and the Philippines
will continue to grow. By 2040, Indonesia could have a population o
over 300 million, up from around 260 million today, and the Philip-
pines’ population could reach 140 million—which would be possibly
larger than Russia’s. Both countries, moreover, are young and increas-
ingly well educated. In 2015, China had almost four times as many
people aged 20 to 39 as Indonesia and the Philippines did combined;
by 2040, it is projected to have only twice as many. Both Indonesia
and the Philippines are likely to come into increasing confrontation
with an expansionist China, and as they do, they may discover an in-
terest in deeper security cooperation with the United States.
Indonesia and the Philippines, however, pale in comparison to In-
dia. India is on track to overtake China as the world’s most populous
country within the next decade, and by 2040, India’s working-age
population may exceed China’s by 200 million. India’s population will
still be growing in 2040, when China’s will be in rapid decline. By
that time, about 24 percent o China’s population will be over 65,
compared with around 12 percent o India’s. India has its own demo-
graphic and human resource problems—compared with China, it still
has poor public health indicators, low average educational attainment,
and egregiously high levels o illiteracy. Despite years o attempted
reforms, India still ranks 130th out o 186 countries on the Heritage
Foundation’s Index o Economic Freedom. Yet by 2040, India may
have a larger pool oÊ highly educated workers aged 20 to 49 than
China, and its advantage will be increasing with every year. The
United States and India have already begun defense cooperation in