Daniel Byman and Kenneth M. Pollack
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this president from some o his worst instincts—for instance, talking
him out o withdrawing troops from Syria and quitting £¬¡¢. Yet
contrary to his appointees’ advice, his party’s long-standing prefer-
ences, and even his own political interests, Trump has dramatically
altered the course o U.S. foreign policy. He has rejected the Paris
climate accord and the Trans-PaciÄc Partnership, walked away from
the Iran nuclear deal, raised taris on China, rooted for far-right
candidates in European elections, and moved the U.S. embassy in
Israel to Jerusalem. At home, Trump has revealed that many sup-
posed traditions o American politics—such as refusing to hire your
relatives, pretending to be upset by corruption, revealing your personal
Änancial activities, not threatening to arrest your political opponents,
and promptly Älling important cabinet positions—are powerless against
a wrecking ball. His tenure has been marked by thoughtlessness and
chaos; this does not appear to be a well-crafted plot.
Individuals can rise above institutions, norms, systemic forces, and
domestic politics, leaving their countries stronger or weaker than they
might otherwise have been. Leaders can create new enemies or friends,
weaken or strengthen alliances, disregard norms, or take risks when
others might have balked. They can fundamentally alter the national
aspirations and overarching strategies o a country. Otto von Bismarck
rendered Germany peaceful and a pillar o the European status quo;
his successor, Kaiser Wilhelm, made Germany the greatest threat to
European stability and the main instigator o World War I.
Once the role o individuals is taken into account, politics becomes
less certain and more contingent than simple models o international
relations might have it. In good times, this insight should make one
cautious, since one man or woman in the wrong place at the wrong
time can set a country on a dangerous course. In bad times, however,
faith in the power o individuals can serve as a source o hope. For
although leaders can make the world more dangerous, they can also
make the world safer and more prosperous. In a democracy at least,
this means that while choosing leaders is a burdensome task, it is also
one that everyone should welcome.∂