The Unwanted WarsNovember/December 2019 39the world’s most polarized region and,
paradoxically, its most integrated. That
combination—along with weak state
structures, powerful nonstate actors, and
multiple transitions occurring almost
simultaneously—also makes the Middle
East the world’s most volatile region. It
further means that as long as its regional
posture remains as it is, the United States
will be just one poorly timed or danger-
ously aimed Houthi drone strike, or one
particularly eective Israeli operation
against a Shiite militia, away from its next
costly regional entanglement. Ultimately,
the question is not chie¥y whether the
United States should disengage from the
region. It is how it should choose to
engage: diplomatically or militarily, by
exacerbating divides or mitigating them,
and by aligning itsel ́ fully with one side
or seeking to achieve a sort o° balance.ACT LOCALLY, THINK REGIONALLY
The story o¡ the contemporary Middle
East is one o¡ a succession o¡ rifts, each
new one sitting atop its precursors, some
taking momentary precedence overothers, none ever truly or fully resolved.
Today, the three most important rifts—
between Israel and its foes, between Iran
and Saudi Arabia, and between compet-
ing Sunni blocs—intersect in dangerous
and potentially explosive ways.
Israel’s current adversaries are chie¥y
represented by the so-called axis o¡
resistance: Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas, and,
although presently otherwise occupied,
Syria. The struggle is playing out in the
traditional arenas o¡ the West Bank and
Gaza but also in Syria, where Israel
routinely strikes Iranian forces and Iranian-
a¼liated groups; in cyberspace; in Leba-
non, where Israel faces the heavily armed,
Iranian-backed Hezbollah; and even in
Iraq, where Israel has reportedly begun to
target Iranian allies. The absence o¡ most
Arab states from this frontline makes it
less prominent but no less dangerous.
For those Arab states, the Israeli-
Palestinian con¥ict has been nudged to
the sidelines by the two other battles.
Saudi Arabia prioritizes its rivalry with
Iran. Both countries exploit the Shiite-
Sunni rift to mobilize their respectiveRies and rifts: Houthi rebels in Sanaa, Yemen, December 2018HANI AL½ANSI
/ PICTURE ALLIANCE
/ DPA
/ AP
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