Behind the HeadlinesThe Report
THE HOLLYWOOD REPORTER 20 OCTOBER 16, 2019
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L
ike a quarterback shrugging off a sack,
the NFL is brushing off doubts about
its ratings supremacy among U.S.
TV viewers. Linear ratings for the league hit
a multiyear bottom in 2017, prompting a rash
of speculation about whether pro football’s
stranglehold atop the Nielsen charts was com-
ing to an end. But now, as ratings for other
programming keep declining, the audience for
the NFL is rising.
Through six weeks of the season, NFL
games across all its television partners are
averaging about 16.3 million viewers, up 3 per-
cent from last season’s average of 15.8 million.
Since hitting a low for this decade of 15 mil-
lion viewers in 2017, viewership has climbed
9 percent and is on par with the 2016 season
(16.5 million).
What happened? Explanations for the
rebound range from more exciting play on the
field — scoring and other offensive metrics
have boomed in the past season-plus — to the
presence of high-profile young quarterbacks
like Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs
and Baker Mayfield of the Cleveland Browns
to the NFL no longer being the culture-war
battleground that it became in 2016 and 2017
thanks to Colin Kaepernick.
“If the conversation around football is
primarily about the game, then we’re probably
winning,” says Michael Mulvihill, executive
vp and head of strategy and analytics at Fox
Sports, which has the Super Bowl this season.
“And if the conversation is about topics away
from the game, we’re probably losing. I think
the focus for the past season and a half has
become more where we’d like it to be, which is
just on the games.”
The growth of fantasy sports and the spread
of legalized betting to a handful of statesother than Nevada also has helped fuel the TV
ratings, says Michael Nathanson, media ana-
lyst at MoffettNathanson. “One of the things
we noted early this year is gambling is picking
up a bit,” he says. “As gambling becomes legal-
ized, there’s definitely more interest in sports
and watching things live.”
Off the field, discussion about player safety
as well as former San Francisco 49ers quar-
terback Kaepernick’s protests during the
national anthem (and the resulting backlash,
including from President Trump) has receded
somewhat. Ratings have bounced back across
all demographics, says Mulvihill, with the
number of women viewers rising somewhat
more on a percentage basis than men (though
males still make up the majority of viewers).
The NFL’s improving ratings fortunes come
at a time when ad-supported TV as a whole is in
the midst of a sharp decline: “Even in the years
where ratings were down, the relative strength
of the NFL compared to the rest of television
was actually getting stronger,” says Mulvihill.
“Now that things are back on a positive trend,
I think the league is separating itself even fur-
ther from everything else in the marketplace.”NFL games (afternoon and primetime)
make up large majorities of the 50 most-
watched programs each year. During the past
three full seasons, the NFL averaged about
1.9 million more viewers than the same-day
audience for the most-watched primetime
show. This season, the gap is more than 4 mil-
lion viewers. Dramas and comedies will close
that when delayed viewing is factored in, but
for broadcast, Roger Goodell’s lea g ue rema i n s
the surest bet to gather a big audience all at
once — which means networks can charge a
premium for ads. A 30-second spot on NBC’s
Sunday Night Football costs $685,000 on aver-
age, while ads on Fox’s Thursday Night Football
go for $540,000 — well above the rates for
even the priciest primetime entertainment
show, This Is Us ($359,000).
The NFL’s TV rights come up for bid again
in 2021 (ESPN’s Monday Night Football pack-
age) and 2022 (CBS, Fox and NBC). Nathanson
projects an increase of 30 percent or more
in rights fees over the combined $5.6 billion
a year networks now pay — which, he says,
still makes sense for the broadcasters. “The
last ESPN deal was inefficient, and the ROI
doesn’t make sense for cable networks,” says
Nathanson, noting that ESPN
pays $1.9 billion per year for
Monday Night Football, while the
broadcast nets dole out slightly
more than $1 billion each.
One thing Nathanson doesn’t
see — at least for the near future
— is a streaming platform
becoming the primary outlet
for one of the TV packages. “It’s
too disruptive. But [there could
be more] around the edges like they’ve done
with Thursday night and Amazon [which
streams most of those games],” he says. “But
I think the NFL understands, as long as the
broadcast monetization system is still there
with retrans, they don’t want to blow up
the ecosystem.”
With teams like the Dallas Cowboys, New
England Patriots, Green Bay Packers and the
49ers set for some two dozen national tele-
casts during the rest of the regular season,
Nathanson and Mulvihill see the ratings
momentum continuing, a trend that bodes
well for the Feb. 2 Super Bowl (last year’s game
slipped below 100 U.S. million viewers for
the first time in 10 years). “I also think we as
Americans want an escape from all the politi-
cal back-and-forth,” says Nathanson. “You
have a bit of escapism, you have higher scor-
ing, you have some younger players, perhaps
you have some gambling influence. It’s all
kind of working together.”More gambling, less Kaepernick and concussion talk fuel two seasons of growth:
‘If the conversation is primarily about the game, then we’re probably winning’
BY RICK PORTERNFL Ratings Comeback:
What’s Stoking the Fire?
Pro Football’s Hike
*Through Oct. 14. Source: NFL and Nielsen; regular-season viewers, all games.2015 2016 2017 2018 2019*18.7M
16.5M
15M 15.8M16.3MThe NFL is on track for its biggest
regular-season audience since 2016.
Viewership has improved 9 percent in the
season-plus since hitting a low in 2017.GoodellMulvihill