The Economist

24 The EconomistJuly 21 st 2018

1

O

F ALL the bets placed on the football

World Cup the biggest gamble took

place in the Caribbean. Lacking a compet-

itive side many football-mad Haitians

have adopted Brazil as their team—some

because theyshare African roots with Pelé

Brazil’s greatest player ever others because

Brazil has given Haiti financial and mili-

tary aid. With the public glued to their

screens watching the seleção on July 6 th

the Haitian government discreetly raised

fuel prices byaround 40 %.

A Brazilian victory might have left Hai-

tians too ecstatic to protest. Instead Brazil

fell to Belgium. Soon after Port-au-Prince

burst into flames. Protesters burned cars

looted shops and closed much ofthe coun-

try with roadblocks. Jack Guy Lafontant

the prime minister quickly reversed the

policy but could not save his job; he re-

signed ahead of a no-confidence vote on

July 1 4th. Earlyestimatesputthe damage at

some 2 % of GDP. Three people have died.

Latin American nations far sturdier

than Haiti have been broughtto a standstill

byprotests over fuel prices. But in the poor-

estand mostunequal countryin the Amer-

icas the unrest isparticularlyacute. Haiti is

still rebuilding itself after an earthquake in

2010 that killed perhaps 200  000 people.

And as the flow of aid from foreign donors

has ebbed so too have funds from Venezu-

ela which sent Haiti $ 300 m a year until it

plunged into an economiccrisis.

Jovenel Moïse the president took office

tice that benefits the rich should be an easy

sell. But by its own admission the govern-

ment botched its pitch. It announced the

price increase butdid notmention its coun-

tervailing policies such as compensation

for the poor and workingclass and spend-

ingthe savings on social services.

Even a better-handled rollout might not

have prevented lawlessness given the

weakness of Haiti’s security forces. UN

peacekeepers who had patrolled the

country since 2004  withdrew last Octo-

ber. The foreign troops were not popular.

Some forced children into sex in exchange

for food and medicine; others brought

cholera causing an epidemic that killed

10  000 people. Nonetheless they kept the

peace and buoyed the economy by filling

cafés and restaurants. In their absence it

fell to the underpaid police force to impose

order (Haiti’s army was abolished in 1995 ).

Its inabilityto control the riot raises doubts

about how it will handle future unrest.

Some government officials wonder

whether anyone organised the protests—

possibly fuel smugglers political rivals or

powerful families that benefit from the

subsidies. Many of the roadblocks and

stacks of burning tyres were in place with-

in minutesofthe end ofthe football match.

Even if the uprising was spontaneous

however it makes clear that the president

will struggle to implement his agenda.

Mr Moïse’s “Shaved-Head Party”—so

called because both he and his predeces-

sor sport the party’s look—was founded

only in 2012  and has built little political in-

frastructure. Before trying to restore the

subsidy cuts savings from which are al-

readycounted in the budget MrMoïse will

need to win approval fora newprime min-

ister—Haiti’s 21 st since 1988.

And the government is too poor for the

president to buy popular support. Just

70  000 tax returns are filed each year in a

last year shortly after another disaster

Hurricane Matthew. Mr Moïse grew up in

Haiti’s poorest region and ran a banana

plantation until 2015. The presidency is his

first elected office. Upon coming to power

he combined unrealistic promises such as

providing uninterrupted electricity to ev-

ery household with “shovel-ready” initia-

tives like building roads and canals in the

countryside. But the endemic weakness of

the state may prevent him from achieving

his goals great and small.

The wealth of Haitians

One ofMr Moïse’s firstmoves was to strike

a deal with the IMF which required Haiti

to wean itself off the fuel subsidies that

consume over a tenth of public spending.

In 2011 the government stopped pegging

domestic prices to global oil markets leav-

ing it to foot the bill for any rising costs;

crude has appreciated by 50 % during the

past year. Some 8 5% of the subsidies go to

the richest 10 % of Haitians who tend to

own cars. Wilson Laleau the president’s

chief of staff says that 6  000 barrels a day

are smuggled to the neighbouring Domin-

ican Republic. Ditching subsidies would

free $ 350 m a yearbadlyneeded elsewhere:

Haiti spends just 5 % of GDPon health edu-

cation and social protection. Honduras

and Nicaragua the two poorest countries

in mainland Latin America spend 15 % and

10 % respectively.

Helping the poor by abolishing a prac-

Unrest in Haiti

A gamble gone wrong

PORT-AU-PRINCE

Apromising president runs into the obstacles thatbedevilled his predecessors

The Americas

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