The Economist

The EconomistJuly 21 st 2018 The Americas 25

1

2 country of 11 m people. Foreign donors of-

ten prefer to supply their aid through

NGOs rather than see a portion lost to cor-

ruption. This prevents the state from

strengtheningits capacities.

Withoutmoneyorpatronage MrMoïse

must rely on personal popularity. Al-

though he won the election of 2016 easily

turnout was around 20 %. He has sought to

drum up supportbyholdingrallies around

the country under the “Caravan for

Change” banner promoting the govern-

ment’s good works. Unfortunately the

fuel-price fiasco has set backthese efforts.

Near the presidential palace three men

chat on a parkbench. Patrice Ciresmond a

48 - year-old who cannot find work sat in

the same spot to watch the ill-fated World

Cup game on a government-provided

screen. “They were waiting for when we

were about to be happy because of Brazil

and then theyput the knife in ourbelly” he

says as his friends nod along. “They don’t

want us to laugh even just once.” 7

Paraguay and Taiwan

The blossom and the passion flower

N

O PLACE on Earth is farther from

Paraguaythan Taiwan its antipode.

Yet Asunción Paraguay’s steamycapital

in the heart ofSouth America is full of

symbols offriendship with an Asian

island 20 000 km ( 12  400 miles) away.

In a leafy suburb looms a weathered

statue ofChiangKai-shek who ran a

Chinese government-in-exile in Taiwan

until 1975. Not far awayis the futuristic

home ofthe Paraguayan Congress built

usingTaiwanese funds in 2003. Just

nearbyis a replica ofthe Taipei 101 sky-

scraper. Unveiled in 2017 to mark 60 years

ofdiplomaticties it is entwined with the

national flowers ofTaiwan (plum blos-

soms) and Paraguay(passion flowers).

United at first by anti-communist

fervour the two maintained a bond long

past the end ofthe cold war. Today Tai-

wan sends Paraguaymoney police vehi-

cles and soap operas dubbed into Span-

ish and trains students and armyofficers.

Paraguayreciprocates with commodities

foodstuffs and diplomaticsupport.

The Chinese government in Beijing

has longlobbied foreign counterparts to

stop recognisingTaiwan. In 1990  28

countriesconsidered Taiwan to be Chi-

na’s government compared with 139

recognisingthe People’s Republic. To-

day’s figures are 18 and 177. São Tomé and

Príncipe Panama the Dominican Repub-

lic and Burkina Faso have all switched to

mainland China since late 2016. Ofthe 18

countries still in Taiwan’s camp ten are in

Latin America. But China’s development

banks lent $ 150 bn to the region from 2005

to 2017  a sum Taiwan cannotmatch.

Taiwan has reason to fear that its lone

South American allymaybe next. Mario

Abdo Benítez Paraguay’s president-elect

hopes to sign a trade deal with China via

Mercosur a trade bloc. Accordingto an

adviser he wants to open a trade-and-

investment office in Beijingwithout

grantingrecognition. As one minister has

acknowledged Paraguayalreadyexports

goods to China indirectly—mainlysoya-

beans sold onwards from Uruguay.

But Taiwan is unflustered says Diego

Chou its ambassador to Paraguay. Non-

recognition is no barrier to trade with the

People’s Republic he notes: China is

Taiwan’s principal trade partner. Last

year Paraguay and Taiwan signed a deal

scrappingtariffs on 54 Paraguayan pro-

ducts. Taiwan’s aid has paid for 4  500

units of social housing. In April the two

countries announced the foundingof a

technological university in Paraguay.

And Mr Abdo Benítez’s pickfor foreign

minister Luis Castiglioni is a known

Taiwanophile who visitsoften.

“We’re not a superpower” Mr Chou

recognises. “But we’ve always been at

Paraguay’s side.” For now at least Para-

guay’s leaders still feel the same way.

ASUNCIÓN

As others change allegiance a long-distance relationship endures

W

HEN Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva fin-

ished his stint as Brazil’s president in

2011  his approval ratingwas 83 %. Hissocial

programmes and a commodity boom

helped lift 30 m people out of poverty. He

hopes to run for president once again in an

election this October and leads the polls

by a healthy margin. Only one obstacle

seems to separate him from a third term: he

is serving a 12 - year prison sentence for cor-

ruption. He spends his days listening to

samba and watchingtelevision in his cell.

Until this month political observers

mostly dismissed Lula’s chances of mak-

ing a comeback. Formally he has until Au-

gust 1 5th to register to stand which would

triggera reviewofhiseligibilityby the elec-

toral tribunal. However Brazil’s ficha limpa

(“clean record”) law bars candidates

whose convictions have been upheld by

an appeals court as Lula’s was in January.

His only hope is for the supreme court to

overturn the verdict. Some polling firms

have alreadydropped him from theirques-

tionnaires leaving the far-right Jair Bolso-

naro as the front-runner. On July 8 th how-

ever a judge decreed that Lula should be

freed plungingthe campaign into turmoil.

The saga started when three congress-

men from Lula’s Workers’ Party ( PT) filed a

habeas-corpus petition demanding his re-

lease. Although scores of similar requests

had already been filed the lawmakers

timed theirs to fall into the hands of Rogé-

rio Favreto an appeals judge on call over

the weekend. Mr Favreto had previously

been a member of the PT and worked for

Lula’s government. He instructed police to

let Lula go saying that another judge had

violated Lula’s rights by banninghim from

givinginterviews while behind bars.

Mr Favreto’s decision was not imple-

mented. In response to his directive two

off-duty judges issued orders negating it. A

third the president of Mr Favreto’s tribu-

nal settled the score ordering that Lula re-

main locked up. Nonetheless the contra-

dictory rulings put Lula back at the centre

of the campaign. Google searches for his

name spiked 50 - fold on July 8 th. That in-

creases the risk that Brazilians will regard

the election as illegitimate if Lula cannot

run. The chaos in the courts also reinforces

concerns that the judiciary is becoming

just another forum for partisan politics.

Many Brazilians cheered when Lula

was first convicted last year. Despite his

popularity the verdict was widely seen as

a victory over impunity after decades

when the powerful were rarely held to ac-

count. Lula is beingheld in the same police

building where Sérgio Moro one of the

magistrateswho intervened to keep him in

jail launched the Lava Jato (“CarWash”) in-

vestigation in 2014  unveiling a huge cor-

Law and politics in Brazil

Lula livre?

SÃO PAULO

Contradictorycourtrulings on freeing

the once (and perhaps future) president