The Economist

28 Asia The EconomistJuly 21 st 2018

1

2 PML-N has built too much fall flat). Since

2013 Mr Khan’s party has ruled effectively

in the northern province of Khyber Pakh-

tunkhwa. But its success there may not be

sufficient to persuade many voters to des-

ert the PML-N in the national polls.

So the PTI has focused on persuading

PML-N legislators to switch sides and bring

their voters with them. Mr Khan says that

without “electables” assuchweathervane

politiciansareknown“youcannotcontest

the election”. Around a third of the PTI’s

candidates are recent entrants from other

parties. They have been wooed with little

regard to their backgrounds. Some are pre-

cisely the kind of sleazy politician that Mr

Khanhas railed against. Opinionpolls sug-

gest the PTI is neck-and-neck with the

PML-N says Haris Gazdar an academic.

But the rush ofstrong candidates to the PTI

may suggest that the political elite is put-

tingits money on Mr Khan.

One reason for the defections may be

pressurefrom the army. Several PML-N pol-

iticians have publicly claimed in recent

weeks that they were pushed by Inter-Ser-

vices Intelligence an army-dominated

agency tochangetheir affiliation. Mr Khan

denies thatthearmyis supportinghim but

says it is the “only institution” that func-

tions in Pakistan. Some of his supporters

believe the army is influential. It is playing

“a big role” in the election says Zeeshan

Haider a PTI activist. “They will decide

whatset-uptobringinPakistan.”Thearmy

denies all such allegations.

By returning to serve a sentence that he

attributes to an army conspiracy Mr Sharif

has tried to persuade voters that the elec-

tion is a choice between democracy (sup-

posedly represented by his party) and mil-

itaryrulewith the PTIas its front. Onboard

Etihad Flight 243 to Lahore the capital of

Punjab province and his home town he

told The Economist that his battle with the

“establishment”—the army in other

words—was “heading to its peak”. The au-

thorities certainlyfear as much. As Mr Sha-

rif prepared to head home almost 300

PML-N activists were detained to prevent

them stirring up trouble. Around 10  000

policemen were deployed to block a pro-

cession led by his brother Shahbaz a for-

mer chief minister of Punjab from reach-

ing the airport. There Nawaz was

transferred to another flight that took him

to a prison near Islamabad. Shahbaz has

since tried to mollify the army. In an inter-

view with the Financial Times  he vowed

to consult the army when needed should

the PML-N win.

Fears that these elections may not be

fair are justified. The work of a 100 - strong

EU monitoring team has been mysterious-

ly obstructed. For the first time in four elec-

tions the EU observers were able to start

theirworkonlyaweekbeforethevote.Pre-

viously they had started more than a

monthinadvance. Thearmyhas also been

more visible this time. In 2013  when terro-

rism was a bigger problem it deployed

70  000 soldiers to polling stations. There

will be 370  000 of them on July 25 th. The

Election Commission of Pakistan which

oversees the vote has granted army offi-

cers the power of magistrates. This will

give them control overproceedings in poll-

ing stations. The Human Rights Commis-

sion of Pakistan a respected NGO com-

plained recently of “unabashed attempts

to manipulate the outcome” of the vote.

If there is a hung parliament which is

likely the PTImaybeabletoformagovern-

ment with the support of smaller religious

parties and independent legislators. The

party may even have to approach its old

foe the PPP which these days has little

support outside the southern province of

Sindh. That would require Mr Khan to

swallow his words about not joining

hands with the PPP’s chairman Asif Ali

Zardari. He has accused Mr Zardari who

was president between 2008 and 2013  of

corruption. But the two parties did team

up against the PML-N in senate elections in

March. Mr Khan has proved flexible in his

pursuit ofpower. 7

M

OST political leaders play up their

country’s economic performance.

Those on the Cook Islands a collection of

15 islets spread over 2 m square kilometres

in the South Pacific are doingthe opposite.

At issue is whether the country of

17  000 peoplehasbecomewealthyenough

to warrant a reassignment by the OECD a

club of mostly rich countries from upper

middle-income to high-income status. The

rub is that “graduation” would make it

more difficult for the country to claim it

qualifies for aid. This amounted to

NZ$33m ($22m) in 2016  or just under 8% of

the islands’ GDP. However New Zealand

the biggest donor country to date has said

it will continue to give an unspecified

amount of financial assistance if the Cook

Islands graduates.

HenryPuna the prime minister has ac-

knowledged that achieving high-income

status would be a source ofnational pride.

It would be a first for a Pacific-island state.

But he has warned that “premature gradu-

ation could have serious implications” for

his country. The finance ministry down-

plays the islands’ impressive average an-

nual growth of around 5 % between 2014

and 2016. It noted in a recent press release

that“economicgrowth maynot have been

as strongas we thought”.

The OECD sorts countries into groups

based on theirgross national income ( GNI)

perperson. Countries thatexceed the high-

income threshold as defined by the World

Bank for three consecutive years are pro-

moted to the list of developed countries.

(In 2016 the high-income threshold was

$ 12  236 .) The Cook Islands however does

not produce data for GNI only for GDP

which does not include net income from

abroad. So when the OECDhinted lastyear

thatthe islandsappeared readyforgradua-

tion officials resisted arguing that they

should be granted extra time to compile

their own GNI statistics. The OECD set a

deadline ofearly 2019.

The Cook Islands has good reason to

worry that the good times may not last. It

has lost 12 % of its population in the past 12

years as young people seek greener pas-

tures in New Zealand. (Cook Islanders

hold New Zealand citizenship thanks to

their country’s “free association” arrange-

ment with the former colonial master.)

Spendingbytourists accountsforover 60%

of the islands’ economy. Around 80 % of

the visitors ( 161 000 of them last year) are

from New Zealand and Australia. A reces-

sion in one of those countries or a natural

disaster at home would be an enormous

The Cook Islands

A curse in disguise

The island state couldsoon become the world’s newestdeveloped country. Forits

leaders that maynot be all good news

How not to blow your own trumpet