2019-10-12_The_Economist_

TheEconomistOctober 12th 2019 37

1

L

ast timeCanadians had a general elec-

tion, in 2015, many felt it was a struggle

for the soul of the country. It pitted Stephen

Harper, a cantankerous Conservative from

the oil-producing province of Alberta who

had governed for nearly ten years, against

Justin Trudeau, the handsome dynast in

charge of the Liberal Party. To his fans Mr

Trudeau’s victory heralded a return of Ca-

nadian values—tolerant, open, progres-

sive—that Mr Harper had abandoned.

The election to be held on October 21st is

not like that. Slip-ups and scandals have

dulled Mr Trudeau’s sheen. He urges voters

to “choose forward”, which could mean

“don’t dwell on my mistakes” as well as “let

me build on the progress I’ve made.” His

main rival, the Conservatives’ Andrew

Scheer, is affable but quickens no pulses.

His campaign combines pocketbook

promises with put-downs of Mr Trudeau

(he’s a “high-carbon hypocrite” because he

campaigns using two aeroplanes). Pundits

grumble that the campaign, like “Seinfeld”,

an American sit-com, is “about nothing”.

In some ways that is a good thing. Un-

like many other democracies, Canada is

not fighting its election on the dangerous

ground of identity and culture. Mr Scheer

has not picked a fight over immigration

and race, as some analysts feared he would.

He accepts immigration at today’s levels,

while wanting to be tougher on asylum-

seekers walking across the border from the

United States. Last year Canada admitted at

least 321,000 new permanent residents,

equivalent to nearly 1% of the population.

Mr Scheer is sceptical of gay marriage (he

once said in Parliament that it was like

counting a dog’s tail as one of its legs), but

has no plans to challenge its legality. The

election’s Seinfeldian quality may vindi-

cate Mr Trudeau’s central political thesis:

that boosting the middle class is a good way

to fend off populism. Both the main candi-

dates are now peddling tax cuts for the

middle class. If he wins, Mr Scheer would

spend less freely than Mr Trudeau but is

unlikely to depart radically from the course

Mr Trudeau has set.

Except in one crucial respect. The can-

didates’ biggest area of disagreement is

over the environment. Mr Scheer says his

first priority as prime minister will be to

scrap the national carbon-price floor

agreed on by the provincial and federal

governments. He says Canada will hit its

target for reducing emissions of green-

house gases—down by 30% from 2005 lev-

els by 2030—by other means. A “national

energy corridor” would carry oil from Al-

berta and his home province of Saskatche-

wan to the Atlantic and Pacific coasts. Mr

Trudeau, by contrast, has stepped up his

ambitions for Canada in the fight against

climate change, pledging to cut its emis-

sions to “net zero” by 2050. So the elec-

tion’s main consequence may be to deter-

mine whether Canada remains credible as

a global cheerleader in the campaign

against climate change.

Mr Trudeau has other boasts. In his four

years in office Canada became the first big

country to legalise recreational cannabis. It

passed laws to allow medically assisted

suicide. His government has skilfully han-

Canada’s election

Pocketbooks and the planet

OTTAWA

The biggest difference between Justin Trudeau and Andrew Scheer, his

Conservative rival, is over climate change

True dough

Canada, median income, C$’000 2017 prices

Sources:StatisticsCanada;CentrefortheStudyofLivingStandards

Aftertaxand

government

transfers

Prime minister

StephenHarper

Justin

Trudeau

Beforetaxand

government

transfers

1716141210082006

60

58

56

54

52

50

The Americas

38 Bello:Vizcarraopensa Pandora’s box

39 Ecuador’s state of emergency

Also in this section