2019-10-12_The_Economist_

TheEconomistOctober 12th 2019 49

1

A

fter yearsof threats, it took Turkey
mere days to strike. On October 9th the
Turkish armed forces began bombing parts
of north-east Syria. Controlled by a Kurd-
ish-led militia, the region had been an
American protectorate until just days be-
fore, when President Donald Trump
abruptly decided to abandon it. Turkish
troops are now moving into Syrian towns,
backed by local rebels under their com-
mand. The nascent offensive will have im-
plications far beyond Turkey’s intended
30-kilometre-deep “safe zone” inside Syr-
ia. It will displace hundreds of thousands
of people, complicate an already-chaotic
war and offer the jihadists of Islamic State
(is) a chance to regroup.
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Tur-
key says his aim is “to destroy the terror
corridor which is trying to be established
on our southern border”. In other words, he
wants to oust the Kurds from their Syrian
statelet. The main Kurdish force, called the
People’s Protection Units, or ypg, gained
control of the area while fighting with
America against is. That created an intoler-
able situation for Turkey, because the ypg
has close ties with the Kurdistan Workers’
Party (pkk), a separatist group that has
fought the Turkish army for 35 years.

As Turkey advances, the fighting will

probably grow bloodier. Civilians have be-

gun fleeing towns under bombardment.

The incursion could displace many of the

750,000 people living along the border. But

Kurdish fighters deprived of American

support are unlikely to want open conflict

with the larger Turkish army. The ypgis al-

ready talking of cutting a deal with Bashar

al-Assad, Syria’s dictator, that might see

them relinquish some autonomy in ex-

change for the regime’s protection.

The fighting risks benefiting is, which

has been kicked off the territory it once

held, but which is resurgent, says the Pen-

tagon. Operations against the jihadists

have reportedly stopped. The Kurds, rea-

sonably, say they have other priorities.

They are still holding tens of thousands of

isdetainees and their families in camps

like Al-Hol, home to some 70,000 people

who live in increasingly desperate and un-

safe conditions. America says the ispris-

oners will become the responsibility of

Turkey. But Mr Erdogan’s proposed safe

zone does not include Al-Hol. And Turkey

does not have a good record when it comes

to jihadists. Many first reached Syria by

taking advantage of lax Turkish border

controls. On October 10th President Donald

Trump tweeted that America had taken

custody of the most notorious prisoners

and moved them out of the country—a tacit

admission that Turkey was not up to the

job of holding them.

In general, though, Mr Trump has

cleared the way for Turkey. On October 6th

he announced that he was withdrawing the

100 or so American troops in northernmost

Syria. They had been in the awkward posi-

tion of standing between a natoally, Tur-

key, and a reliable partner, the ypg. The

open-ended deployment of American

troops in Syria (who, in total, number

about 1,000) frustrates Mr Trump. He tried

to withdraw all of them in December. That

decision (announced, naturally, on Twit-

ter) prompted his defence secretary, James

Mattis, to resign.

His equally abrupt decision this month

blindsided American officers, to say noth-

ing of the Kurds, and was followed by more

erratic behaviour. Mr Trump argued Ameri-

Turkey invades Syria

Green light, go

ABU DHABI AND ISTANBUL
A long-feared clash between Turkey and Syria’s Kurds will have consequences
across the Middle East

JORDAN

LEBANON

ISRAEL

IRAQ

Damascus

Tu r ke y ’ s

proposed

“safezone”

Mediterranean

Sea

Rasal-Ain

TelAbyad Al-Hol

SYRIA

TURKEY

Manbij

Euphrates

Tigris

Jihadists

Turkishtroops/rebels Kurds

Rebels

Government

Areas of control

October 7th 2019

Source: IHS Conflict Monitor

150 km

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