50 Middle East & Africa The EconomistOctober 12th 2019
21ca owed the Kurds no lasting loyalty since
they “didn’t help us in the second world
war”. In fact, the Kurds fought under allied
command in Albania and Greece. As for
Turkey, in the space of 48 hours he all but
endorsed the Turkish operation, threat-
ened Turkey with sanctions should it cross
his unspecified red lines and then praised
its contribution to nato.
The Pentagon worries about how the
limited withdrawal in the north will affect
the rest of its deployment in Syria. As the
Turkish army advances, backed by rebel
groups that are not terribly fond of Ameri-
ca, it will grow ever harder to protect Amer-
ican troops stationed elsewhere. What be-
gan as a limited pullout may end with
America abandoning all its positions.
In a rare split with the president, Repub-
lican lawmakers joined their Democratic
colleagues to condemn the move. Lindsey
Graham, a Republican senator close to Mr
Trump, introduced a bill to sanction Tur-
key’s leaders, armed forces and energy sec-
tor until it withdraws troops from Syria.
Turkish officials who thought they had a
deal with Mr Trump were left puzzled and
fuming. “We don’t see only a single usany
more, but many voices coming from differ-
ent interest groups,” says Mesut Hakki Ca-
sin, an adviser to Mr Erdogan.
Apart from Turkey’s own Kurds, and
some liberals, most Turks are likely to
cheer the offensive. Opposition parties
tend to defer to Mr Erdogan whenever he
invokes national security. He suffered a
setback earlier this year when his Justice
and Development party lost control of Tur-
key’s biggest cities in local elections. Suc-
cess in Syria could offset the damage.
Most Turks are also likely to back Mr Er-
dogan’s plan to flood the areas now under
Kurdish control with some of the 3.6m Syr-
ian refugees living in Turkey. Opinion polls
show mounting levels of resentment to-
wards the guests. Since the start of the year,
Turkey has sent thousands of them back to
Syria. Mr Erdogan says the 30km “peace
corridor” his army plans to create would be
a magnet for up to 2m refugees. This is ei-
ther delusional or a euphemism for forced
resettlement. Sending mostly Arab refu-
gees to a region populated mainly by Kurds
risks fanning tensions and future conflict.
On paper the Turkish offensive seems
simple enough, an attempt to deny territo-
ry to a hated foe. But capturing and holding
hundreds of kilometres of territory will be
a costly and perhaps bloody slog. The fight-
ing could force a flood of refugees into Iraq,
which has its own problems (see next
story). And by giving Syrian rebels a new
foothold in the north-east, it will compli-
cate matters elsewhere in Syria, where Rus-
sia and Iran are trying to help Mr Assad
consolidate control. Almost nine years
into a conflict that reshaped the Middle
East, there is still no end in sight. 7M
illions of shiaswill walk to the holy
city of Karbala this month, ending the
annual mourning period for Hussein,
grandson of the Prophet Muhammad, who
was killed 14 centuries ago. But Iraqi pil-
grims will also wail for the 110 people, all
Shia, whom their government has killed
during recent protests. The authorities
have imposed curfews, switched off the in-
ternet and arrested hundreds. Neverthe-
less, many Iraqis say that after Karbala they
will walk to Baghdad, 105km away, to con-
front their rulers.
In recent years the government has
been buffeted by uprisings in Sunni areas
and a separatist push by the Kurds. But un-
rest in the Shia south, the government’s
heartland, could prove its greatest chal-
lenge. What began as small rallies by un-
employed graduates and unhappy street
vendors has mushroomed. The govern-
ment’s violent response has brought thou-
sands onto the streets. They complain, as
ever, of too few jobs, poor services and ram-
pant corruption. Western diplomats won-
der whether Adel Abdul-Mahdi, the 77-
year-old prime minister, in office only for
one year, can regain control.
There have been big protests before. In
2016 thousands of Iraqis stormed the then-
fortified Green Zone, the seat of govern-
ment in Baghdad, demanding economic
and political reforms. But little progresshas been made. Despite increased oil rev-
enues and relative peace after years of civil
war, the government has been unable to
deal with high poverty rates or with youth
unemployment of around 25%. War-torn
areas remain in ruins. In recent days Mr
Abdul-Mahdi has unveiled several mea-
sures, such as land distributions and in-
creased welfare payments. He vows to
tackle corruption and punish those re-
sponsible for the violence. But few Iraqis
believe he will keep his promises.
The problem, in part, is the design of the
government. After toppling Saddam Hus-
sein, Iraq’s former dictator, in 2003, Ameri-
ca wanted to prevent another strongman
from emerging. But the new set-up has al-
lowed parties based on ethnicity and sect
to dominate. They dish out government
jobs to loyalists and treat ministries like
cash machines. The prime minister, him-
self beholden to the Shia factions that ap-
pointed him, is in no position to take on his
colleagues. Protesters accuse politicians of
plundering Iraq’s oil wealth. “It goes on
mansions for their families in London,”
says a demonstrator in Hilla, south of
Baghdad. Ironically, many are now calling
for a return to strongman rule.
Economic and political frustrations are
at the heart of the protests, but anger has
also been directed at Iran, which is seen as
having undue influence over the govern-
ment. The dismissal of Abdul-Wahab al-
Saadi, a popular army commander,
brought many of his southern tribesmen
out in protest. They believe he was ousted
for trying to root out corruption in the
army, particularly among Shia militia
groups with close ties to Iran. Some of
those same groups are now thought to be
leading the violent response to the prot-
ests. “Out, out Iran. Set our country free,”
chant the protesters, some waving placards
with Mr Saadi’s face.
America is making little effort to coun-
ter Iranian influence. The State Depart-
ment evacuated hundreds of diplomats in
May, after receiving intelligence that Iran
(or its proxies) might attack American in-
terests in the region. It accelerated the pull-
out in June, after attacks on a site used by
international oil companies and on Iraqi
bases where American troops are sta-
tioned. Once the world’s largest, America’s
embassy in Baghdad now has just over a
dozen diplomats, says a foreign observer.
They rarely leave the compound.
In the past, Shia protesters listened to
the clergy in Najaf, a holy city in the south.
But Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, the chief
cleric, is losing his authority as arbiter be-
tween the government and the masses. His
Friday sermons appealing for moderation
on all sides meet with derision. “The clergy
aren’t siding with the people,” says a prot-
ester in Basra. “They’re living on govern-
ment money.” Muqtada al-Sadr, a firebrandIraq’s government seems powerless to
halt protests in the Shia heartlandProtests in IraqStreets of fury