The EconomistOctober 12th 2019 Middle East & Africa 512
1cleric who previously spoke for the dispos-
sessed, also appears to be losing his sway.
His nationalist party, Sairoun (“Marching
to Reform”), won the most seats in parlia-
mentary elections last year. But since join-
ing the government Mr Sadr has spent
much of his time in Iran. Protesters say he
has been co-opted.
Officials admit that they are running
out of options. “There’s no magic solution,”
says Mr Abdul-Mahdi. Protesters throw
Molotov cocktails and torch the branches
of Shia political parties. Officials say they
have come under fire. Some talk ominously
of Iraq going the way of Syria, where prot-
ests descended into civil war, and where
the government is beholden to Iranian-
backed Shia militias. Iraq’s young democ-
racy, no stranger to tumult, may be facing
its most dangerous moment yet. 7O
n october 7thAnastácio Matavele left
a training session for election observ-
ers in Xai-Xai, the capital of Gaza province
in southern Mozambique. Matavele, an ex-
perienced observer, was chased in his car
by men allegedly belonging to a specialist
police unit, who then shot and killed him.
Authorities were already struggling to ex-
plain how the electoral roll in Gaza, a
stronghold of frelimo, the ruling party,
came to have 300,000 more names on it
than there are adults in the province. Now
they must explain whether the state mur-
dered a warden of Mozambican democracy.
Matavele’s death is just the latest cause
for concern ahead of elections on October
15th. These are the sixth presidential and
parliamentary votes since the end of the
civil war, which ran from 1977 to 1992. They
will be among the most violent, says Ze-
naida Machado of Human Rights Watch, an
ngo. Campaigning is taking place against
the backdrop of two conflicts: one old, the
other relatively new.
The old is between frelimo and
renamo, former guerrilla fighters who are
now the main opposition party. After 1992
the end of civil war gave way to a mostly
peaceful impasse, whereby frelimo kept
control of the state, which it has persistent-
ly looted, while leaving renamo with
enough support and fighters to retain in-
fluence. But in 2013-14, and again in 2015-16,
renamo resumed attacks so as to extract
more concessions from the ruling party.
A peace deal was signed between thetwo sides in August. In exchange for laying
down its arms renamo received pledges of
jobs and pensions for its ageing fighters, as
well as an agreement to devolve power to
provinces, whose governors will hence-
forth be indirectly elected, rather than ap-
pointed by the president. Negotiators
hoped that the deal would be the prelude to
peaceful elections.That has proved naive. Since renamo
gave it a scare in elections in 1999, frelimo
has been accused of rigging votes, includ-
ing those it might have won anyway. Al-
though President Filipe Nyusi will retain
power in the presidential race, elections to
the national assembly will be close. re-
namois hoping for victory in five of the ten
provincial votes. frelimo’s share of the
vote has slipped in the past four elections
(see chart); many expect it to use any
means necessary to slow its decline.
Evidence of chicanery is growing. Op-
position presidential candidates have been
stopped from holding rallies in some areas.
Thousands of election observers have been
prevented from registering. Victims of Cy-
clone Idai, which struck in March, have re-
portedly been told that if they vote for the
opposition they will not get food aid. Doz-
ens of journalists and pro-democracy ac-
tivists have been harassed, assaulted and
detained in recent years. Some, like Mata-
vele, have been killed.
Then there is the second, newer conflict
looming over the ballot. In Cabo Delgado, a
province in the far north-east, a poorly un-Conflicts old and new have dashed
hopes of a free, fair and peaceful voteElections in MozambiqueWar wounds
How low can it go?Sources:NationalElectoralCommission;ChathamHouseMozambique,FRELIMOelectionvoteshare, %02550752003 04 08 09 13 14 18Municipal National assemblyW
henkenyaannouncedinJunethat
it would issue new 1,000 shilling
($10) notes and destroy the old ones to
fight corruption, many predicted chaos.
India’s efforts to do the same by “demo-
netising” rupees in 2016 led to riots,
deaths and a dent in economic growth.
Few doubted the need for Kenya to do
something: corruption and tax evasion
are pervasive. Tax revenue as a share of
gdphas slipped steadily since 2014 to
less than 16%, which is less than half of
the average of countries in the oecd. The
central bank hoped that by abolishing
the old notes it would flush out criminals
and well-heeled tax dodgers when they
brought out large sums of hidden cash to
exchange for the new notes.
But critics fretted that the plan would
hurt the poor, many of whom live deep in
the countryside, and the millions of
Kenyans who do not have bank accounts.
“My aunties and grandma in the village
have had challenges trying to get the new
notes,” says Peter Ndegwa, a taxi driver in
Nairobi. “They’ve been conned by being
issued fake currency.” Traders were also
hit when businesses in Uganda and
Tanzania sniffed at Kenyan notes.
Even their design caused controversy.
Activists took the central bank to court,
arguing the notes were unconstitutionalbecausetheyfeaturedanimageofJomo
Kenyatta, Kenya’s first president and the
father of the current president, Uhuru.
This seemed to violate a constitutional
ban on banknotes showing the “portrait
of any individual”. After a review of
dictionary definitions the court ruled
that since the image showed his feet it
was clearly a sculpture and not a portrait,
which would have shown him only from
the “bust or head upwards”.
At least Kenya learned from India by
giving people four months to change
their money (in India the old bills be-
came invalid overnight and people had
just 50 days to exchange old bills for
new). Yet this may also have allowed
time for crooks to launder their money.
Many rushed to buy dollars. Others
handed over wads of cash for new cars.
By the time the deadline had passed, the
authorities were able to identify only a
few thousand suspicious transactions
for further investigation.
The central bank declared a success,
saying that 96% of the old notes had been
handed in. But teething pains continue.
“The new notes don’t fit in the parking
meters,” grumbles Anstes Agnew, a visi-
tor from Rwanda who got stuck in the
airport garage. “You have to go on a hunt
and hoard the old notes.”Moneytoburn
Demonetising old notesNAIROBI
Kenya’s effort to snuff out swag was unexpectedly orderly, if somewhat ineffectual