54 Europe The EconomistOctober 12th 2019
2 terview with a conservative television
channel owned by a Roman Catholic priest,
on October 2nd. Portraying refugees from
the Middle East as a danger to national se-
curity helped piswin the election in 2015.
This time, Mr Kaczynski has identified a
new threat: an “attack on the family” by gay
people. Backed by the Roman Catholic
church, its traditional ally, pishas tapped
into conservative attitudes, especially op-
position to adoption by same-sex couples.
Homophobic rhetoric has surged. A pride
march in the eastern city of Bialystok on
July 20th was attacked by thugs who threw
stones, firecrackers and bottles.
The opposition has struggled to re-
spond. Three-quarters of Poles oppose gay
adoption, polls suggest, and Civic Platform
does not even dare to back gay marriage.
After failing to agree on a broad coalition,
the anti-pisparties will contest the elec-
tion as three blocs: centrists led by Civic
Platform, agrarians, and the left, made up
of the old social democrats plus Wiosna
(Spring), a progressive party founded earli-
er this year by a gay-rights campaigner.
Lacking a charismatic leader, Civic Plat-
form supporters look to Donald Tusk, who
served as prime minister from 2007 to- Some hope that he will challenge
Andrzej Duda, the pis-backed incumbent,
for the presidency next year after his term
as president of the European Council ends
next month. He has not revealed his plans,
which will depend on the results.
The economy has counted in pis’s fa-
vour. It grew by 5.1% last year, thanks to an
increase in domestic consumption and in-
vestment, though it is forecast to slow to
4.4% this year and 3.6% in 2020. Wages
have risen and unemployment is 3.3%, one
of the lowest rates in the eu. Companies
have tried to plug the labour shortage with
foreign workers, mostly from Ukraine. The
government says it can cover the cost ofits
new welfare policies by improving tax col-
lection and cutting administrative costs.It
has proposed a balanced budget for 2020,
the country’s first in three decades.
Despite facing surgery on his knee after
the elections, Mr Kaczynski, who turned 70
in June, has campaigned around Poland,
handing out promises. The technical side
of governing is managed by Mateusz Mora-
wiecki, a former bank boss, whom Mr Kac-
zynski promoted to prime minister in De-
cember 2017. Polls put pisfar in the lead;
one this week gives it 43% of the vote, com-
pared with the centrists’ 28%. With the
left’s 14% and the agrarians’ almost 8%, the
fragmented opposition would have
roughly 50% of the vote, but PiSwould still
have a majority in the Sejm, the lower
chamber of parliament. Voters face “a fun-
damental choice between two worlds”,Mr
Kaczynski told an interviewer (a priest
wearing a cassock) on October 2nd. His
world seems to be winning. 7
L
ast yearPoland made an audacious bid
to coax Donald Trump into permanently
placing an American armoured division on
its soil, offering $2bn and naming rights.
“Fort Trump”, as it became known—jocu-
larly at first, then more formally—is now
firming up. In June America said it would
send 1,000 troops to join the 4,500 already
in Poland. On September 23rd Mr Trump
agreed with Andrzej Duda, Poland’s presi-
dent, where these would go.
It is not quite the mammoth tank force
that Poland wanted, but it is a win nonethe-
less. Five years ago the American troops in
Poland could all fit on a bus. Now thou-
sands will be spread across six sites. “Po-
land has joined today the small group of
countries where us troops are perma-
nently stationed,” boasted the country’s
defence ministry. There will be a division
headquarters in Poznan, a squadron of
Reaper drones in Lask, a helicopter brigade
and special forces in Powidz and more spe-
cial forces in Lubliniec.
The troops in Poland serve as a tripwire.
If Russia were to invade, it would have to
kill Americans first, quickly pulling in the
superpower. But the new forces will also be
useful in circumstances short of all-out
war. Lieutenant-General Rajmund Andr-
zejczak, Poland’s army chief, says that the
drones and “low profile” special forces areespecially helpful for spotting and coun-
tering murkier “hybrid scenarios”—a refer-
ence to techniques Russia has honed in
next-door Ukraine, such as the use of
cyber-attacks, disinformation and soldiers
who don’t wear identifiable uniforms.
Mr Duda hopes this is just the start.
America and Poland are now haggling over
a seventh site for another American ar-
moured brigade combat team, a unit that
can include over 100 tanks and armoured
vehicles. America would like it to sit west
of the Vistula river. Poland would prefer it
in the south-east of the country, pointedly
closer to Russia. The “real deal” would be a
full-blown defence co-operation agree-
ment, says Michal Baranowski, head of the
Warsaw office of the German Marshall
Fund, an American think-tank.
Mr Duda has honed the art of speaking
to Mr Trump in the languages he under-
stands best: flattery, money and loyalty. Po-
land has gone on a spending spree for
American arms, signing over $11bn-worth
of deals for rocket launchers, Patriot air de-
fence systems and f-35 warplanes. On Sep-
tember 3rd it asked to buy 185 Javelin anti-
tank missiles and five Hercules transport
aircraft. Poland is not only one of the hand-
ful of allies that hits the nato target of
spending 2% of gdpon defence, but also
plans to raise that to 2.5% by 2030.
For Poland, the purpose of this build-up
is clear. Russia is “definitely very, very ag-
gressive”, says General Andrzejczak. He
points to its military exercises and chal-
lenges to Polish airspace using drones. For
Mr Trump, it is more personal. Why, he was
asked, had he sent troops? Was it because of
the Russian threat? “No, I don’t think so at
all. I think it’s just because we have a presi-
dent of Poland who I like, who I respect.” 7WARSAW
America pours a thousand more troops
into PolandPolish defenceA firmer fort
Over there