12 Time October 21–28, 2019
I
T’s sTanding room only in eddy’s KiTchen,
a tiny deli with mismatched floor tiles and lami-
nated menus in North Plainfield, N.J., when Demo-
cratic Congressman Tom Malinowski begins ex-
plaining why he supports the impeachment inquiry into
President Donald Trump. “What is the difference be-
tween the United States of America and Russia? What is
the difference between the United States of America and
Venezuela?” he asks. American politicians, he says, “put
their duty to their country, to their people first—ahead of
their duty to themselves.” Trump, Malinowski charges,
broke that pact when he asked the Ukrainian President in
a July 25 phone call to do him a “favor” by investi-
gating one of his political rivals: “Not ‘us, Amer-
ica’ a favor,” he says, “but ‘me’ a political favor.”
As Washington gears up to judge whether
Trump abused the power of the presidency, Con-
gress and the White House are preparing for
months of procedural and legal battles over sub-
poenas, testimony and the balance of power be-
tween the coequal branches of government. But in
Malinow ski’s district and across the country, the
impact is more immediate. Control of the House,
the Senate and the presidency may hinge on how
voters in a handful of state and local races react to
the constitutional crisis unfolding in Washing-
ton when they go to the polls in November 2020.
For Democrats and Republicans, the fight to win
the politics of impeachment has already begun.
In Malinowski’s narrowly Republican district,
for example, three GOP challengers have already
announced a run for his seat. Elsewhere, Demo-
crats are particularly vulnerable in the 31 dis-
tricts where voters went for Trump in 2016 but
elected Democratic House members in 2018.
Democrats can afford to lose just 17 of those races
next year and retain a majority in the House.
Political operatives in both parties are doing
similar math to identify the handful of Sen-
ate races most at play in the impeachment
battle. The Democratic presidential can-
didates, and the Trump campaign itself,
are already adjusting their 2020 strategies to ac-
count for the coming impeachment battle. On
Oct. 9, Joe Biden became the latest Democratic
contender to call for Trump’s impeachment.
So far, Democrats are presenting the issue as
a narrow, moral one. Impeachment is not about
disliking the President, they say; it’s about pre-
serving the rule of law. Republicans are fram-
ing the issue as an unconstitutional attempt
to pre-empt the will of the voters and overturn the 2016
election results. Which argument wins may determine
the U.S. political map for years to come.At first blush, the polls look good for Democrats.
After the White House released a transcript on Sept. 24
that showed Trump pushing the Ukrainians to inves-
tigate Democratic front runner Biden, public opinion
swung against the President. Roughly two-thirds of vot-
ers found Trump’s request inappropriate, and 61% agreed
with the Democrats’ subsequent announcement of an im-
peachment inquiry, according to an early- October Wash-
ington Post survey. Since May, support for impeachment
has risen eight points among Republicans and 11 points
among independents, according to a CNN survey. Public
support for impeachment is now higher than it was when
the House launched proceedings against Presidents Rich-
ard Nixon and Bill Clinton, and the trend has cheered
Democrats. “The movement among independent voters
is significant and profound,” says Jesse Ferguson, a
2016 aide to Hillary Clinton.
But national polling tells only part of the story.
The Republican National Committee announced
it planned to spend $2 million on broadcast ads
blasting impeachment, and the President’s re-
election campaign has spent nearly $1.2 million on
impeachment- themed Facebook ads. The House
Republicans’ campaign arm has spent more than
$50,000 on Facebook ads targeting Democrats, and
its Senate counterpart has spent roughly half that,
according to data compiled by Democratic firm
Bully Pulpit Interactive. In early October, Vice Pres-
ident Mike Pence visited Iowa and Minnesota to
criticize Democrats on the issue.
Democrats’ responses have been less robust.
The Democratic National Committee has spent just
$12,000—less than 3% of its digital spending—on
impeachment-related Facebook ads. For them, the
battles are fought locally. Max Rose, whose New
York City district went for Trump in 2016, has
been careful in his framing of the issue. “We have
to make sure the American people understand this
is a sad day,” he tells TIME. “But the President
brought us to this moment.” In the Senate, the
battle is shaping up in Alabama, Arizona, North
Carolina, Colorado and Maine —the five races
that the Cook Political Report labels as toss-ups
or leaning.
For Malinowski, re-election may depend on
how much punch he can pack at events like the
one at Eddy’s. “I don’t know where this ends,” he
tells the crowd, adding, “I want to end up demon-
strating that our democracy is still alive. That we
still have checks and balances in this country,
that we still have the rule of law in the United
States of America.” —With reporting by
abby Vesoulis/norTh Plainfield, n.J.
and alana abramson/ WashingTon TheBrief Opener
The
impeachment
inquiry is
a ‘blatant
attempt to
overturn the
will of the
American
people in the
last election.’
VP MIKE PENCE,
on Oct. NATION
Impeachment politics
and the fight for 2020
By Philip Elliott