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be “Talk loudly but avoid brandishing your stick.”
The President talks tough on international chal-
lenges, saying things like he would destroy Iran or
rain “fire and fury” on North Korea, but he gener-
ally seeks to minimize actually using the military,
believing that the American public wants an end
to the conflicts of the past two decades. In terms
of China, the Administration continues to launch
provocative “freedom of navigation” patrols in the
South China Sea but has not taken more aggres-
sive military action. Against Russia, the Trump
approach seems to be supporting NATO by put-
ting more troops in Europe (at least on a rotational
basis and in nations toward which he feels per-
sonally well disposed, like Poland). He also tends
to move impulsively with little military consulta-
tion or interagency advice, as he did in apparently
pulling troops back in Syria after a phone call with
the Turkish President—to the shock of the Penta-
gon and our allies in the region.
Related to this, he seems to seek grand bar-
gains that he can categorize as resulting from
his personal engagement in the diplomatic pro-
cess. This has certainly been the approach with
North Korea and his “beautiful letter”–writ-
ing to close friend Kim Jong Un. Trump has also
mused about meeting with President Rouhani
of Iran, an approach that was abruptly rebuffed
by the Iranians. The President appears to want a
trade deal before the 2020 elections in the U.S.
and seems willing to put security concerns on a
back burner while seeking such an accord. Trump
will certainly continue to try to reduce U.S. troop
levels in Afghanistan. His strategy ignores the
national- security implications of climate change.
In terms of military technology, the President
is personally disengaged, appearing content to
allow his Defense Department to take the lead
on procurement. Trump has touted arms sales to
various nations (Saudi Arabia, Japan and others)
as good business for the U.S., and he seems willing
to provide technology transfers to sell such deals.
While trump’s use of the military is largely con-
ventional, much of what passes for strategy from
the White House is oriented toward what will ben-
efit his re-election campaign. As 2020 approaches,
Trump will likely seek to avoid a shooting war, con-
summate one or two diplomatic successes that can
be categorized as avoiding conflict (especially with
North Korea and possibly Venezuela) and push for
continued military spending. He will undoubtedly
continue to wrap himself in the military—and he
won’t be the first President to do so.
But the worry going forward is that the bitter,
partisan tone of Washington will begin to bleed
into our military. The debates that are likely to
unfold over the use of military aid to Ukraine as
a domestic political tool will seep into day-to-day
conversations on warships, in hangar bays and on
training ranges. Young military officers shouldn’t
have to wrestle with the ethics of a paid event
at a Trump property, and admirals and generals
shouldn’t have to constantly assess how they can
avoid the maelstrom of politics. Over time, even
given the best efforts of the professional military,
there will be corrosion in the chain of command
and wasted energy dealing with these issues.
I gave a speech in New York City about a year
ago, and an elderly member of the audience asked
me an unsettling question: “Admiral, things seem
to be going to hell in a handbasket these days.
When is the military going to do something about
it?” I was shocked into silence for a few seconds
before I said that America’s military has no role
in domestic politics nor any inclination ever to
have one. That foundational element in our re-
public can be counted upon, no matter the politi-
cal pressure—an important certainty in the age of
Trump. But we need to be mindful of the difficult
environment in which our military operates as the
fierce winds of politics blow in this angry season.
Admiral Stavridis (ret.) was the 16th Supreme
Allied Commander for NATO and is an operating
executive at the Carlyle Group
^
Armored vehicles in
Ghazni, Afghanistan,
in August 2018 bear
stencils of Donald
Trump and Mel Gibson
OPENING PAGES: AP; THESE PAGES: EMANUELE SATOLLI FOR TIME
