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A14 | NEWS O THEGLOBEANDMAIL| SATURDAY,OCTOBER19,

Britain is bracing for a historic
showdown in Parliament on Sat-
urday as Prime Minister Boris
Johnson scrambles to win back-
ing by MPs for his Brexit deal with
the European Union.
Mr. Johnson and EU leaders an-
nounced the agreement on
Thursday, hailing it as a major
breakthrough that finally re-
solves the thorny issue of how to
keep the Irish border open after
Brexit. The deal will essentially
keep Northern Ireland aligned
with EU regulations, but it will al-
so allow Mr. Johnson to argue that
the entire United Kingdom is
leaving the bloc on Oct. 31.
The Prime Minister now has to
win parliamentary backing for
the deal during a special session
on Saturday, and that won’t be
easy. The House of Commons has
already rejected three previous
Brexit deals struck by his prede-
cessor, Theresa May. Mr. John-
son’s Conservatives also don’t
have a majority in the Commons,
and their ally, Northern Ireland’s
Democratic Unionist Party, has
come out against the agreement.
Mr. Johnson spent Friday cajol-
ing and arm-twisting MPs in a
frantic effort to get the deal ap-
proved. He has made progress,
and experts give him a decent
chance of succeeding where Ms.
May failed. That’s partly because
his Brexit deal addresses many of
the concerns shared by a group of
fellow Conservative MPs who
thwarted Ms. May’s agreement.
There’s also far more fatigue
among MPs, and the public,
about Brexit, and a growing num-
ber of MPs have said they would
vote for the deal to end the saga.
“I think [Mr. Johnson] has a
better chance than people think,”

said Tim Bale, a professor of poli-

tics at Queen Mary, University of

London. “He has a bit of momen-

tum behind him.”

Tony Travers, a professor in the

department ofgovernment at the

London School of Economics,

said many MPs “would desperate-

ly like to get this stage of Brexit

out of the way. I think they feel

emotionally drained.” He added

that “on balance, I think it’s a bit

more likely to go through than

not.”

The parliamentary arithmetic

remains tricky for the Prime Min-

ister. There are 650 MPs in the

House of Commons, although 11

don’t vote: the Speaker, three

deputies and seven members of

Parliament from Northern Ire-

land’s Sinn Fein party who never

take their seats. That leaves 639

MPs, which means Mr. Johnson

needs 320 votes to win, barring

absences or abstentions. His Con-

servatives have 287 MPs, and they

don’t always toe the line. Even if

they all vote for the agreement,

Mr. Johnson still needs to find

support among the 21 Tory MPs

he expelled from the party last

month after they sided with the

opposition over Brexit. He’ll also

have to convince some Tory MPs

who resigned from the party’s

caucus because of his Brexit strat-

egy. That includes former cabinet

ministers Amber Rudd and Mr.

Johnson’s brother Jo Johnson.

And that’s still not enough to win.

The key to Mr. Johnson’s suc-

cess will be persuading a handful

of Labour MPs to defy their par-

ty’s leadership and vote for the

deal. Labour Leader Jeremy Cor-

byn has urged his MPs to stand

firm and oppose the agreement,

and there have been dire warn-

ings from some party executives

that rebels could lose their nomi-

nation to stand in the next elec-

tion. That may not be enough to

dissuade several Labour MPs who

represent ridings in northern En-

gland, where Brexit is popular.

Around 17 have indicated in re-

cent weeks that they would sup-

port a deal under some circum-

stances. It’s not clear how many

of them will be prepared to side

with Mr. Johnson on Saturday,

but one Labour MP, John Mann,

said on Friday that the figure was

close to a dozen.

“It could well be that tomor-

row’s result will hinge on how the

relevant Labour MPs who are in-

clined to vote for a deal interpret

the signals from their leader-

ship,” said Rob Ford, a professor

of politics at the University of

Manchester.

Dr. Ford added that Mr. John-

son could still gain politically

even if he loses the vote. Under a

law passed by MPs last month,

the Prime Minister would have to

ask the EU for an extension to the

Oct. 31 deadline.

If Mr. Johnson is forced to ask

for an extension and then calls a

snap election, Dr. Ford said he’ll

be able to blame Parliament for

delaying Brexit and prolonging

the debate. “The politics of the

extension become less bad for

him because he has a really clear

and easy to understand argument

for why it isn’t his fault,” he said.

“If he’s waving a great big thick

sheaf of paper and saying ‘This is

the agreement they won’t vote

for,’ people can understand that.

That’s why getting this deal

agreed with the EU was such a big,

big win for him because political-

ly he’s got the upper hand in

terms of spinning the outcome

[on Saturday].”

JohnsonseeksMPsupportaheadof Brexitvote

LabourLeaderCorbyn

hasurgedhisMPs

tostandfirmand

opposethePM’sdeal

PAULWALDIE
EUROPECORRESPONDENT
LONDON

BritishPrimeMinisterBorisJohnsonleavesaEuropeanUnionSummitattheEUheadquartersinBrusselsonFriday.Mr.Johnson’sBrexitplans

dependonwhetherhecanpersuadeahandfulofLabourPartyMPstovoteforhisdeal.KENZOTRIBOUILLARD/AFP/GETTYIMAGES