The Globe and Mail - 19.10.2019

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T

here’s no getting around it: Year one of legalized
cannabis in Canada was a dud.
It was an unmitigated disaster for many inves-
tors. The bubble burst, and the shares of most large
Canadian marijuana producers dropped by at least 50 per
cent. The public markets are largely closed to the industry;
at the moment, there’s simply no appetite for more pot
stocks.
The Trudeaugovernment’s goal wasn’t to make share-
holders or investment banks rich, though. It was to whittle
down the black-market marijuana business. Giving canna-
bis users a place to buy regulated marijuana would generate
new tax revenue, open up new business opportunities and
reduce the burden on police and the courts.
By that measure, the first year was underwhelming, to

say the least. The best estimates are that the legal market

represents somewhere between 12 per cent and 30 per cent

of cannabis consumption. The bulk of sales are still under-

ground. That’s partly because the rollout of stores has been

so slow in Ontario, where a newprovincialgovernment did

a U-turn on retailing policy just weeks before legalization

day on Oct. 17, 2018.

Some of this will get ironed out in Year 2. But entrepre-

neurs across the country say new products and more stores

will not be enough to turn the Canadian cannabis industry

into a world leader. They point their fingers squarely at

governments for their approach – which, they say, has been

to legalize but then overregulate, rather than get behind the

sector.

CANNABIS, B2

LegalcannabiswassupposedtocurbtheblackmarketandmakeCanadaaglobal

leaderinanemergingindustry.Sofar,it’sahotmess.JamesonBerkowtrave lledacross

Canadatohearfromthoseonthefrontlinesaboutwhatwentwrong,andhowtofixit

CANNABIS

ELECTION2019

Theproblemwith

promisingaluxurytax

Politiciansjustwanttoimpress

middle-classvoters,notmakea

difference,writesIanMcGugan B4

ERICREGULY

SuncorEnergy’snextbigbet

(hint:it’snotintheoilsands) B4

GLOBEINVESTOR

Couplewondershowbesttoinvestif

workinguntil70 B10

In a federal election with a lot up for grabs,

British Columbia is the golden ring. With

four parties expecting to capture seats and

as many as a dozen ridings too close to

call, the province is very much in play in

what is shaping up as one of the closest

federal votes in history.

And because B.C.’s polls are the last in

the country to close, the way its voters

lean might tip the national scales on elec-

tion night Monday – a rare role for a prov-

ince that is more accustomed to the out-

come having already been declared before

its votes are counted.

It’s fitting that this election should

come down to B.C. So many of the coun-

try’s most pressing economic policy issues

at play in this election land right on the

province’s doorstep.

Energy infrastructure versus climate

change? The controversial Trans Moun-

tain pipeline extension will run right

through the middle of the province. Trade

conflicts with China? The ports along its

coast are on the front lines of those ship-

ments; its huge forest-products sector and

its nascent liquefied natural gas industry

rely heavily on the Chinese market. Hous-

ing? Vancouver is the epicentre of the

country’s fading housing boom and the

least affordable market in the country.

“B.C. is really at the heart of a lot of

these issues,” says Allan Tupper, political

science professor at the University of Brit-

ish Columbia. “They’re all here, in spades.”

During the past four years, while Alber-

ta’s economic struggles have captured the

headlines, B.C. has quietly taken over the

mantle as the country’s fastest-growing

provincial economy. It is the gateway to

Asian markets, which grew at triple the

pace of NAFTA exports. It has expanded as

a hub of technology innovation. It is a

huge centre for immigration, a critical

component of the country’s population

growth that has expanded the skilled la-

bour force.

But as the election nears, B.C. finds it-

self at an economic crossroads. The prov-

ince is in the midst of its slowest year of

growth since the Great Recession.

B.C.,B5

Atacrossroads:

HowB.C’s

changing

economycould

swaythevote

DAVIDPARKINSON
ECONOMICSREPORTER

In a few days’ time, the real work begins.

After a bruising 40-day election campaign,

where all parties dangled promises big and small

to woo key voting blocs, Canada’snext govern-

ment will take the keys of a $2-trillion economy

that faces a litany of headwinds.

Global growth is expected to slow, and that’s

liable to wash up on Canadian shores. Interna-

tional trade tensions aren’t helping, nor is that

fact that North America’s new trade deal has yet

to be ratified. Some issues have stymied policy

makers across the industrialized world: weak

productivity growth, subpar wage gains. Others

seem more particular to Canada.

ECONOMY, B6

ELECTION2019

5bigeconomic

challengesfacing

Canada’snext

government

Fromrealestatetotradeto

taxes,takingstockofthe

promisesmadethiscampaign

MATTLUNDYECONOMICSREPORTER

2.30%

SavingsAccount

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