28 United States The EconomistOctober 26th 2019
I
f you wereamong the 8m people who watched this month’s
Democratic primary debate in Ohio, you might think Democrats
are chiefly concerned about health care or foreign policy. To hear
Joe Biden, you might even suppose taxes on people “clipping cou-
pons in the stockmarket” is something their voters care about. But
you would be wrong. Poll after poll suggests most are overridingly
concerned to defeat Donald Trump. And they are willing to select
whichever primary candidate they think likeliest to do that. While
this has given rise to an arcane debate on the left about whether
“electability” is even a thing (left-wingers, who win few elections,
say it is not), Democratic voters might consider that one of their
primary candidates already has a history of pegging back Mr
Trump’s electoral gains. That is Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minne-
sota—whom Lexington recently joined aboard her shiny new “Amy
for America” bus in eastern Iowa.
Brisk, diminutive, with a line in self-deprecating humour—and
another in comfortable cardigans and shoes—the 59-year-old poli-
tician offered herself to the small crowds of Midwesterners await-
ing her as one of their own. The title of her autobiography—“The
Senator Next Door”—“might have been written for Iowa!” she josh-
es in Cedar Rapids. She can see Iowa from her front porch in Min-
neapolis, she says in Sigourney, a flyspeck of coffee and antique
shops amid vast acres of corn country.
She can see Canada from it, too, she adds, in a quick pop at Sa-
rah Palin, between listing her centre-left policies. Ms Klobuchar is
for making Medicare more available but not free for all. She is for
expanding access to public college, but not free four-year degrees.
She is for banning assault weapons but not forcibly buying back
the millions in private hands. Midwesterners like their politics
unthreatening, realistic and with a touch of humour to smooth
over areas of disagreement, she believes. The facts back her up.
Some of the Democrats’ biggest gains in last year’s mid-terms were
made in the Midwest by pragmatic candidates who argued, as she
does, that “to be progressive you have to make progress”. She also
has a record of outperforming her party in Minnesota by wooing
independents and moderate Republicans. Last year she won re-
election by 24 points in a state Hillary Clinton won by two.
That was one of the most stunning results of the 2016 election.Minnesotalastwentfora Republican presidential candidate in- That Mr Trump came so close to breaching such a strong sec-
tion of the erstwhile Democratic “blue wall” encapsulated his
strategy of sweeping up ageing white Midwesterners. It gave him
narrow wins in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania (which is
Midwestern in part), and will again be his likeliest route to victory
next year. If he can hang on to even one of those states, or crack
Minnesota, he will probably win re-election. If he loses them, he
probably won’t. Trump-averse Democrats should therefore ask
themselves this question: Who can win the Midwest? And if they
do they will find Ms Klobuchar—who would beat Mr Trump in
Minnesota by 17 points, according to the latest polling—ready with
a half-decent joke. “We’re going to build a blue wall around those
states and make Donald Trump pay for it!”
Then why is she not doing better in the polls? The Economist’s
aggregate puts her on only 2%. She points to the early stage of the
race, the congested field and greater name-recognition for the
front-runners. A pithier response would be: Mr Biden. The former
vice-president has dominated the primary’s moderate lane despite
his familiar shortcomings as a campaigner and more recent
doubts about his mental acuity. Having decided he would be likeli-
est to beat Trump, his supporters have been forgiving. Yet Mr Bi-
den’s seat-blocking candidacy has made it hard for lesser-known
though perhaps more compelling moderates to get attention. It
persuaded Senator Sherrod Brown of Ohio not to enter the race, has
put paid to Governor Steve Bullock of Montana and pushed Sena-
tor Kamala Harris further to the left than she otherwise might have
gone. Given Mr Biden’s weakness, true left-wingers such as Eliza-
beth Warren have meanwhile had a free run at framing the debate.
Yet Mr Biden may now be in trouble. Ms Warren has overhauled
him, his fundraising is in crisis and the likeliest-looking moderate
alternatives—Ms Klobuchar and another Midwesterner, Mayor
Pete Buttigieg of Indiana—have some momentum. After both piled
into Ms Warren in Ohio, they were rewarded with a gusher of dona-
tions that might previously have gone to Mr Biden.
Minnesota nice enough
Mr Buttigieg appears better placed to take advantage; he is bril-
liant, a fresh face and has a big lead on Ms Klobuchar in fundrais-
ing and a smaller one in the polls. Yet for risk-averse Democrats he
has two potential handicaps. He has never won an election outside
South Bend. He also has hardly any support from African-Ameri-
cans—and as an openly gay man dogged by poor race relations in
his home city, he may struggle to woo them.
Ms Klobuchar is also imperfect. Her charisma is more apparent
in Sigourney than on the national stage. And she has a reputation
for being not terribly “Minnesota nice” to her staffers. Yet that
should not matter against Mr Trump—a one-man Democratic
turnout machine with the highest staff turnover of any modern
president. And Ms Klobuchar has three strengths. She has an elec-
toral record to scare Mr Trump. She appears relatively inoffensive
to left-wingers, while hewing as close to the centre as her party’s
leftward drift allows. (Her platform, which includes a promise of a
$15 minimum wage, is notably to the left of Mrs Clinton’s.)
In straightforward Midwestern style, she also seems to know
who she is—unlike Mr Buttigieg, Ms Harris and even Ms Warren,
all of whom can seem torn between leftist idealism and reality.
“I’m a dose of sanity,” she says. “If you’re tired of the noise and the
nonsense, tired of the extremes, you’ve got a home with me.” Anx-
ious Democrats might yet consider that to be good enough. 7Lexington Amy Klobuchar for sanity
If Democrats want to win, and most do, they should give the senator from Minnesota a look