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TheEconomistOctober 26th 2019 3

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o roarsofapprovalfromthepumped-upcrowdpackinga sta-
diuminHouston,Texas,India’sprimeministergavehisan-
swertothelocalgreeting.“Youask,‘Howdy,Modi?’,soI say,‘Every-
thingisfineinIndia!’”Theprimeministerrepeatedthephrasein
halfa dozenIndianlanguages,drawingmoreroarsfromdifferent
partsofthecrowd.NarendraModiisa masteratturningsuch
showstohisadvantage.Formorethan4mIndian-Americans,he
hadsubtlyequatedhisownpersonwiththeOldCountry.And,by
persuadingPresidentDonaldTrumptoappearonstagewithhim,
hewasshowinga resurgentIndia,respectedbyworldleadersand
walkingtallontheworldstage.
Thesonofa Gujaratigroceranda devoutHindunationalist,the
mostpowerfulprimeministerina generationprojectsa comfort-
ingsmall-townconservatism.Yethisnattydress,upliftingtalkof
progressandcuttingwitspeakofupwardmobility.MrModi’sstilt-
edEnglishmaybeawkward,buthisauraofconfidencedeclares
thearrivalofa bolder,strongercountry.
Asontheworldstage,soathome.WhentheresultsofIndia’s
electionwereannouncedinMay,MrModi’sBharatiyaJanataParty
(bjp) surprisedevenitsownsupporterswiththescaleofitsre-
electionsuccess.Thepartyhadmoremoney,moreenergyanda
sharpermessagethanitsfeeble,dividedopponents.Butmainly
theoutcomewasa personaltriumphforMrModi.Punditsnowas-
sertthatafterdecadesofwobblycoalitiongovernments,Indiahas
entereda phaseofhegemonicpoliticsreminiscentofthe1950sand
1960s,whentheCongresspartyheldunchallengedpower.The
bjp’s currentmajoritymeansit couldpushthroughalmostanyleg-
islationMrModiwants.Butforallhismassivemandate,canhe
holdIndiatogetherinallitscontradictionsandmoveit forward?

Judgingbyhisfirstterm,andhisgovernment’strajectoryinthe

earlymonthsofhissecond,theanswerisnotatallclear.Agreat

dealofhypeaccompaniedMrModi’sarrivalonthenationalscene

in2014.Hewaspraisedasa can-do,pro-businesspragmatistwho

wouldwipecleanandshapeupa governmentwidelyseenasvenal

androtten.YetMrModi’sfirstfiveyearsprovedinmanywaysa

wastedopportunity.Withsomenotableexceptions,suchasthein-

troductionofa nationwidegoodsandservicestax(gst) anda huge

efforttostop“opendefecation”bybuildingmoretoilets,boldre-

formswerelargelypostponedinfavourofpolicytinkering,sopsto

noisyconstituenciesandpackingthebureaucracywithloyalists.

Inhislatestterm,MrModihasseemedmoreintentonfollowing

anothersideofhischaracter,consolidatingpersonalcontrol,pun-

ishingpoliticalfoesandpursuingHindu-nationalistideological

goals—suchasplacing7.5munhappyMuslimsinKashmirunder

extendedlockdownanddirectrulefromDelhi—thandealingwith

morepressingeconomicissues.

A reckoning

MrModi’sgovernmenthasfailedtoacknowledgeloomingdangers

toIndia’seconomyandisnowstrugglingtocopewithanalarm-

inglysharpslowdown.Inthefirsthalfof 2019 newbankingcredit

tobusinessescrashedbya shocking88%,andgrowthfellfrom8%

in 2018 tojust5%thisyear.Fora largeanddiverseeconomy,thisre-

mainsa respectablefigure.Butdemographicpressuresmeanthat

Indiamustsustaingrowthof7.5%justtokeepunemploymentin

check—andneedstodoevenbetterif it hopesevertocatchupwith

China.“Anythinglessthan6%feelslikea recessioninIndia,”says

PranjulBhandari,chiefIndiaeconomistathsbcinMumbai.And

The twoModis

Special report

India is stumbling because its prime minister has not pursued his reformist instincts, says Max Rodenbeck

India

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