The EconomistOctober 26th 2019 Special reportIndia 52
1tion,nationalbankruptcyanda fiercecivilwarrespectively.Strik-
ingly,too,fora societysodefinedbycaste,languageandcreed,In-
diascoredlowonmeasuresofsocialsupport.Manyrespondents
saidtheyhadnoonetocountonintimesoftrouble.
Inspiteofthe“Modieffect”,andincontrasttotheebullienceof
a decadeago,whenIndiawasatthetailofaneconomicboom,the
moodtodayisanxiousandunsettled.Thisspecialreportwillar-
guethatforthecountrynotonlytoprosperbuttobestrongasa na-
tion,itneedstochangecourse.Withoutsweepingadministrative
reforms,thegovernmentitselfwillremainhamstrungbyinade-
quatecapacity.Withouta clearervisionandbolderapproachto
economicpolicy,Indiawillcontinuetounderperform.Withouta
firmercommitmenttoitsownconstitutionalprinciples,thedrift
towardsauthoritarianismwillaccelerate.AndunlessIndiansre-
sistMrModi’spushtowardsheavyHindumajoritarianismandin-
steadembracetheirdiversity,whatwillsoonbetheworld’smost
populouscountrymayremaina largelyunhappyone. 7Two-horseraceSource:IMF *ForecastGDP,%changeona yearearlier- 4
04812161990 95 2000 05 10 15 19*ChinaIndiaUnitedStatesWorldI
ndia’s prime ministerhas a knack for puns. “Hard work is
stronger than Harvard,” he quipped when Amartya Sen, a Nobel
prizewinning economist, criticised his policies. During last
spring’s re-election campaign Mr Modi relentlessly needled his
chief opponent, Rahul Gandhi, the Congress party leader and fifth-
generation scion of India’s most illustrious political family. The
choice, growled the prime minister at rallies across the country,
was between naamdarand kaamdar—those who rely on a fancy
name, and those who achieve through hard work.
The cheers brought by such snappy juxtapositions, as well as
cascades of votes, tell of more than Mr Modi’s skill with words.
They show the depth of resentment he has been able to tap into,
simply by parading his own modest caste origins and posing as a
proud working man. In the decades when the Congress party
dominated politics, paunchy politicians moved into colonial-era
bungalows and travelled first class. Sweeping reforms in the 1990s
lifted living standards for everyone, but also widened gaps be-tween rich and poor, and between fast-rising aspirations and more
slowly evolving opportunities. The same anger that has swept the
developed world against self-appointed elites emerged especially
strongly in India. Polls showed that Indians, more than citizens of
any other democracy, craved a strong leader or even army rule.
In 2014 Mr Modi seemed just the man. He presented himself
first and foremost as an honest, powerful, capable administrator
who could fix problems and work for ordinary people. Those or-
dinary people liked what they heard, and so did businessmen.
Tired of bureaucratic sludge, they cheered Mr Modi’s promise of
“minimum government, maximum governance”. Addressing con-
cerns raised by his failure as chief minister of Gujarat to prevent a
pogrom in 2002 that left some 2,000 people, mostly Muslims,
dead, Mr Modi declared that sabka saath—all together—would
mean sabka vikas—development for all.
He also presented a second image of himself: as a devout Hindu
combining personal piety, celibacy, closeness to grassroots right-
wing Hindu groups and toughness on Muslim issues. The combi-
nation of the two made him a powerful campaigner. In office, how-
ever, it is not clear which face dominates, the ideologue or the
can-do reformer.
Mr Modi’s government has rolled out, or appropriated and re-
energised, dozens of central-government programmes: Smart Cit-
ies to eradicate urban squalor, Make in India to boost manufactur-
ing, Digital India to overhaul the supply of government services,
along with Clean India, Stand Up India, Start Up India and so on.
Many of these programmes have been successful: a campaign
to replace wood and dung stoves with gas cookers has prevented
tens of thousands of lives from being shortened by indoor air pol-
lution. But it is not clear if other initiatives have been as successful
as Mr Modi’s administration claims. Polls show that a large major-
ity of voters believe he has boosted India’s prestige in the world,
though the main evidence of this seems to be television footage of
his foreign visits. Mr Modi’s first term in office could hardly be
called transformative. Expected reforms of antiquated adminis-
trative structures and of restrictive laws governing labour and land
did not materialise. Except for a hardening of rhetoric towards
Pakistan, there were no big shifts in foreign policy.
The biggest transformation came in the prime minister’s office
itself. Shunning press conferences, and instead connecting di-
rectly with voters via radio talks, tweets and a dedicated “NaMo”
app, Mr Modi has made his role far more presidential. Appointing
relatively weak ministers, he has pulled more powers into his own
office. And he has skilfully and ruthlessly used state institutions to
influence the media, punish perceived enemies and undermine
the opposition.
It would seem that Mr Modi’s main focus during his first term
was to establish control. Entering his second term with an in-
creased majority of the Lok Sabha’s 545 seats, he faces few checks.
True, the bjpwon only 38% of the vote, against a respectable 19%
for its only real rival, Congress. But the older party’s successive
losses have left it demoralised and fragmented. In the few states
that it still runs, it is fighting for survival. The power that Mr Modi
wields now places him closer to Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan or
Vladimir Putin than to more constitutionally constrained popu-
lists such as Donald Trump or Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro. Now that he
has consolidated his power, what will India’s strongest leader in a
generation do with it?
Mr Modi has few academic credentials. His real education came
in the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (rss), the “volunteer organi-
sation” that is the quiet, steady flagship of an armada of Hindu-
nationalist (or “Hindutva”) groups. In his 20s Mr Modi served as an
unpaid pracharakor devotee of the rss, soaking up ideas of India’s
past glories and of its subsequent humiliation under 1,000 years of
Muslim and Christian rule. His political career began when in 1985Manwitha mission
What does Narendra Modi want?The prime minister