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44 Middle East & Africa The EconomistOctober 26th 2019

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tanks. A few leaders took selfies next to the

caches. Only Ivory Coast’s hot-chocolate

stand attracted as much attention.

Russia does not just supply arms, how-

ever. In several countries it has become

deeply involved in internal affairs. These

engagements reflect the defining theme of

Russia’s Africa policy: opportunism. One of

Mr Putin’s skills is an ability to spot open-

ings presented by a mix of fragile states and

a distracted West. Once it has identified an

opportunity, the Kremlin looks to increase

its influence and to make money for cro-

nies who operate on its license. Ideally

these moves can be done at low cost, with

high returns.

caris the emblematic example of this

approach. For an estimated cost of just €5m

($5.6m), Mr Putin’s cronies gained access

to minerals, provided jobs for mercenaries,

also allegedly controlled by Mr Prigozhin,

and tested out their tactics for interfering

in the politics of other countries—a speci-

ality of Mr Prigozhin, who was placed un-

der sanctions by America for allegedly

meddling in its election in 2016.

But car is far from the only case. In

Madagascar Russian operatives allegedly

helped at least six of the 36 candidates in

the presidential election in 2018. In Zimba-

bwe Russians advised the ruling Zanu-pf

party before elections last year, and Krem-

lin-linked firms have signed mining and

fertiliser deals. Western diplomats believe

Russia tried to sway elections in the Demo-

cratic Republic of Congo in favour of a can-

didate chosen by the former president, Jo-

seph Kabila. And in Guinea, which supplies

Rusal, a Russian aluminium firm, with

27% of its bauxite, Russia is supporting ef-

forts by President Alpha Condé to defy the

constitution and run for a third term.

Another surge of support is beginning

in Mozambique. Following a visit by Filipe

Nyusi, the country’s president, to Russia in

August, Russian hardware and advisers

have been spotted by intelligence analysts

in Cabo Delgado province, near to where

Rosneft, a Russian energy company, has

gas contracts. The advisers are believed to

have been asked to subdue an insurgency

that threatens both Rosneft’s interests and

those of the corrupt ruling party, frelimo.

All of this activity is worrying some in

the West. In a speech last year outlining

America’s Africa strategy John Bolton, the

former national-security adviser to Presi-

dent Donald Trump, called Russia and Chi-

na “great power competitors” on the conti-

nent which are keen “to gain a competitive

advantage over the United States.”

But there is a danger of conflating the

brazenness of Russia with its actual influ-

ence. In nearly every area it lags behind

America, the euand China. “China got the

juiciest bits. Russia was left to mop up the

leftovers,” says Alexander Gabuev, Russia’s

leading expert on China.

A closer look reveals Russia’s limits. Its

favoured candidates did not win in Mada-

gascar or Congo. Its attempts to prop up

Omar al-Bashir, Sudan’s former dictator,

failed earlier this year. And it could not get

a nuclear-energy deal with South Africa,

despite wooing the allegedly corrupt for-

mer president, Jacob Zuma.

There is also less to Russia’s military ef-

forts than meets the eye. Ahead of the Sochi

summit Mr Putin claimed more than 30

military co-operation deals with African

states. But many amount to little more than

the odd training exercise. African states of-

ten keep their options open, striking deals

with America and China as well. Both have

a base in Djibouti, a small east African

country. Russia, though, does not, despite

years of lobbying. American pressure on

the local government has kept it out.

There is a similar gap between rhetoric

and reality when it comes to economic

deals. In 2018 the total value of Russia’s

trade with sub-Saharan Africa was $5bn,

less than Turkey, Singapore or Thailand.

(American and Chinese trade was worth

$120bn and $35bn, respectively.) Many

deals that are announced at lavish signing

ceremonies by Rosneft or Rosatom, Rus-

sia’s state nuclear company, never end up

happening. “It offers remarkably little that

African states actually need,” explains Paul

Stronski of the Carnegie Endowment for

International Peace, a think-tank.

For all the pageantry on show in Sochi,

Russia remains a bit player in Africa. It is

influential among beleaguered leaders

with few options. But as more and more

countries scramble to engage with the con-

tinent, its leaders see Russia as one of

many suitors. Mr Putin may want Africans

to think of Russia as a great power. But a

summit does not make it so. 7

Sources:CarnegieEndowment

for International Peace; SIPRI *Trend indicator value

HeadofStateofficialvisitstoRussia,2015-19

250

100

Russia,armsexports

Approximatemilitary

value, TIV*, m

2014-18

CAR

Guinea DR C

Angola Mozambique

South

Africa

Zimbabwe

Sudan

Sales force

Russian arms exports to sub-Saharan Africa

F

our yearsafter they were welcomed as

protectors, American troops leaving

north-east Syria received a less friendly

send-off. As they drove out of the region, a

surprise withdrawal ordered by President

Donald Trump earlier this month, angry lo-

cals pelted their armoured cars with rocks

and tomatoes. “Like rats,” one man yelled.

America’s retreat cleared the way for

Turkey to invade and dislodge a Kurdish

militia, the People’s Protection Units (ypg),

that controlled the region. Backed by a rag-

gedy crew of Syrian Arab mercenaries, the

Turkish invasion was a fatal blow to Kurd-

ish autonomy. The ypghad no choice but to

seek protection from Bashar al-Assad, Syr-

ia’s dictator, and surrender most of its self-

rule in return.

At first Mr Trump acquiesced to the

Turkish offensive. Then he dispatched his

vice-president, Mike Pence, to Ankara,

where he secured a five-day ceasefire laden

with concessions to Turkey. But that agree-

ment was merely a sideshow. The real di-

plomacy took place on October 22nd in So-

chi, where President Vladimir Putin of

Russia hosted his Turkish counterpart, Re-

cep Tayyip Erdogan. They struck a deal that

leaves Turkish troops in a zone between

the Syrian towns of Tel Abyad and Ras al-

Ain, much of which they already control.

Russian military police and Syrian bor-

der guards will enter areas to the east and

west to ensure that the ypgvacates them as

well. The Kurds will have until October

CAIRO AND ISTANBUL

Russia and Turkey agree to carve up

northern Syria

The war in Syria

Vlad the dealmaker

A match made in Sochi