2019-10-14 Bloomberg Businessweek-Europe Edition

◼ POLITICS Bloomberg Businessweek October 14, 2019

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IVAN STEPHENS/GDA/AP PHOTO. DATA: INSTITUTE FOR THE STUDY OF WAR

● Mexico’sgroundbreakingrulingpartyis suffering

throughanidentitycrisis

Formostof its fiveshortyears inexistence,

Mexico’sMorenaparty,shortfortheMovimiento

RegeneraciónNacional,hasrevolvedaroundone

politician:AndrésManuelLópezObrador.AMLO,

ashe’sknown,treatedthepartyashispersonal

platform,mademostdecisionsunchallenged,and

neglectedtobuildanyinstitutionalframeworkto

sustainit.InJuly 2018 hewaselectedpresidentina

landslide,receiving53%ofthepopularvote,more

thantwicehisnearestrivalandthemostsincean

oppositioncandidatefirstwonMexico’spresidency

in2000.Evenmoreremarkable,Morenaandits

allieswonmajoritiesinbothhousesofCongress,

surprisingevensomeoftheparty’sownleaders.

Now,almosta yearintoitsdominanceofthe

government,Morenais sufferingthrougha period

offierceinfightingaheadofitsfirstscheduled

Stay Radical or

Get Boring?

THEBOTTOMLINE A TurkishinvasionofnorthernSyriaisn’t

idealforPutinasheseekstoendtheconflictontermsfavorableto

Russia,butit’sbetterthanhavingU.S.forcesthereinstead.

● Dispositionofforces

in Syria

◼Proposed“safezone”

◼Kurdishforces

◼Syriangovernment

◼Syrianrebels

◼Al-Qaeda-dominated

◼Turkish-dominated

Idlib

TURKEY

IRAQ

Damascus

withdrawalofU.S.forcesfromSyria,onlyto

changecoursemonthslaterandagreetokeep

sometroopsintheregionafterencounteringoppo-

sitionfromthesecurityestablishmentandfellow

Republicans,especiallySenatorLindseyGraham.

WhiletheU.S.hadabandonedselectcommand

postsbythetimeTurkeybeganitsoffensiveinSyria

onOct.9,it wasstillunclearwhetherit wouldfol-

lowthroughwitha completedrawdown.

A completeU.S.pulloutwouldremoveRussia’s

onlymilitaryequalfromthecontesttoshape

Syria’sfuture,McGurksays.Moscowwouldthen

havetodealonlywithTurkey,a weakerandmore

compliantregionalplayer,asit workstoachieveits

primarygoal:a politicalsettlementthatreturnsthe

entirecountrytothecontrolofitsally,President

Basharal-Assad.

Erdogan’splanshavebeenlong-gestating.On

Sept. 24 attheUnitedNationsGeneralAssembly

inNewYork,hedescribeda plantomoveasmany

as 2 millionSyrianrefugees—thereare3.7million

registeredinTurkey—intoa 30-kilometer-deep,

480-kilometer-long“safezone”hewantstocreate

intheswathofthecountryclaimedbyKurds.The

vastmajorityofSyrianswho’vefledsincethecivil

warbeganin 2011 areethnicArabs,meaningthepro-

posedpopulationredistributionwouldtransform

theterritory’sethniccomposition.

TheareaofSyriacontrolledbytheU.S.and

itsKurdishalliesstretchesabout 320 kilometers

(200  miles) south from the proposed Turkish

safe zone and includes Raqqa, the former Islamic

State headquarters, and most of Syria’s oil and gas

resources. Turkish control of the northeast would

represent a setback for Russia’s goal of reunifying

Syria under Assad’s control, says Vladimir Frolov,

a former Russian diplomat and foreign policy ana-

lyst in Moscow. “But on the whole, the Turks are

better for us than the Americans.”

Frolov says it’s likely that in exchange for green-

lighting a new Turkish incursion, Moscow has

extracted a commitment from Erdogan to allow

Russia-backed Syrian government forces to begin

a final assault on Idlib, the last major area of Syria

still controlled by rebel forces, some of which are

affiliated with al-Qaeda. Since September 2018, Idlib

has been subject to what amounts to a cease-fire

agreement brokered between Russia and Turkey.

Addressing the annual Valdai conference in

Sochi in late September, Russian Foreign Minister

Sergei Lavrov gave a by-now familiar indictment

of alleged U.S. irresponsibility and inconsis-

tency across the Middle East. He also appeared to

approve Turkish military action while suggesting a

more limited scope for it. In a question-and-answer

session,LavrovsaidTurkeyhadtheright,under

a 1998agreementwithSyria,topursueterrorists

upto 5 kilometers across the border. Asked by

Bloomberg News if that might be accompanied by a

Syrian government assault on Idlib, Lavrov replied

that“Idlibshouldbeconsideredseparately.”

KremlinspokesmanDmitryPeskovsaidonan

Oct.7 conference call that Russia understands

Turkey’s need to ensure its security but hopes Syrian

territorial integrity will be the priority. “All foreign

forces that are in Syria on an illegitimate basis should

leave,” he said.

So long as the U.S. gets its troops out of the way,

“Erdogan’s operation against the Kurds could have

a positive effect for Russia,” says Ruslan Mamedov,

a Middle East analyst at the Russian International

Affairs Council, a Moscow-based research group

founded by the Kremlin. It “will make Kurds real-

ize that they need to make a deal with Damascus.”

�Marc Champion and Henry Meyer