Barron\'s - 30.09.2019

M38 BARRON’S September 30, 2019

FEDERALRESERVEDATABANK

Prev. Year

MemberBank Latest Week Ago

ReserveChgs.(Mil.$) Week Change Change

OneweekendedSep25:

U.S.Gov'tsecurities:

Bought outright 3,587,990 -5,139 -416,310

Federalagencysecur:

Bought outright 2,347 .... -62

Reservebankcredit:

Primary Credit 4 -51 -52

Secondary Credit .... .... ....

Seasonal Credit 90 + 13 -202

Float -129 -1 + 41

OtherF.R.Assets 23,427 + 346 -1,809

TotalFedCredit# 3,808,515 + 58,554 -352,860

Goldstock 11,041 .... ....

SDRCertif.Accounts 5,200 .... ....

Treas.Curr.Outst. 50,067 + 14 + 382

Total 3,895,440 + 58,525 -352,948

Currencyincirc 1,761,741 -427 + 77,250

Treas.CashHldgs 170 + 5 -42

Treas.FedDeposits 314,189 + 63,963 -55,842

ForeignFedDeposits 5,185 -40 -71

OtherFedDeposits 74,677 -6,298 -840

OtherFRliab/cap 45,216 + 284 + 79

Totalfactors 2,495,269 + 52,476 + 79,381

ReservesF.R.banks 1,400,171 + 6,049 -432,329

FgnholdU.S.debt 3,458,563 -8,323 + 20,014

ReserveAggr(Mil.$sa) Latest Prev. Wk.% Year

TwoWksEnded Sep25: Wk. Week Chg. Ago

TotalReserves: 1,462,392 1,535,578 -4.77 1,921,197

Nonborrowed Res # 1,462,278 1,535,485 -4.77 1,920,872

Required Res ## 200,449 197,108 1.70 196,094

ExcessReserves: 1,261,943 1,338,470 -5.72 1,725,103

Borrowed Reserves 114 93 22.58 326

Free Reserves ### 1,261,829 1,338,377 -5.72 1,724,777

MonetaryBase 3,159,101 3,235,681 -2.37 3,541,058

#Fedsupplyofpermanentreservesprovided.

##Demandforreservestobackdeposits.

### Free reserves equal excess reserves minus discount window bor-

rowingsotherthanextendedcredit.Freereservesareshorthandmethod

ofdeterminingthedegreeofeaseofFedpolicy,orwhentheyarenegative

netborrowedreserves,tightness.

GOLD&SILVERPRICES

Year

Handy&Harman 9/27 9/20 Ago

Gold,troyounce 1489.90 1501.90 1187.25

Silver,troyounce 17.47 17.80 14.69

Baseforpricinggoldandsilvercontentsofshipmentsandfor

makingrefiningsettlement.

Price Premium Premium

Coins $ %

Krugerrand 1559.64 59.99 4.00

MapleLeaf 1574.63 74.98 5.00

MexicanPeso 1816.13 8.00 0.44

AustriaCrown 1472.96 3.00 0.20

AustriaPhil 1574.63 74.98 5.00

U.S.Eagles 1574.63 74.98 5.00

Premiumistheamountoverthevalueofthegoldcontentinthe

coin.SourceManfra,Tordella&Brookes,Inc.

Bullionspotgoldprice 1499.65

BARRON'SGOLDMININGINDEX

12-Month Year Week%

High Low 9/26 9/19 Ago Chg.

550.64382.52 Gold mining 529.08 530.91398.31 –0.34

INVESTORSENTIMENTREADINGS

High bullish readings in the Consensus stock index or in the

Market Vane stock index usually are signs of Market tops; low

ones, market bottoms.

Last 2Weeks 3Weeks

Week Ago Ago

ConsensusIndex

Consensus Bullish Sentiment 58% 59% 58%

Source:ConsensusInc.,P.O.Box520526,Independence,Mo.

Historicaldataavailableat(816)[email protected]

AAIIIndex

Bullish 29.4% 35.3% 33.1%

Bearish 33.3 27.8 31.3

Neutral 37.4 36.8 35.6

Source:AmericanAssociationofIndividualInvestors,

625N.MichiganAve.,Chicago,Ill.60611(312)280-0170.

MarketVane

Bullish Consensus 46% 49% 48%

Source:MarketVane,P.O.Box90490,

Pasadena,CA91109(626)395-7436.

TIMGroupMarketSentiment

Indicator 45.6% 46.8% 45.1%

Source:TIMGroup,3ColumbusCircle,Suite1592

NewYork,NY10019(844)[email protected]

WEEKLYBONDSTATISTICS

Last Prev. YrAgo

Week Week Week

NewOfferings,(mil$)(v)

Corporate (z) 23,502 r19,913 12,842

Municipal (z) 7,683 r9,573 4,664

BestGradeBonds-y(Barron's index of 10 high-grade

corporate bonds.)

2.75 2.80 3.99

Interm-GradeBonds-y(Barron's index of 10

medium-grade corporate bonds.)

3.55 3.60 4.87

ConfidenceIndex(High-grade index divided by inter-

mediate-grade index; decline in latter vs. former generally

indicates rising confidence, pointing to higher stocks.)

77.6 77.9 81.9

OtherConfidenceIndicators:

BloombergBarclaysUSLongTreasury*(This

index measures the performance of fixed-rate, nominal US

Treasuries with at least 10 years to maturity. Jan. 1, 1973=100.)

4172.38 4116.20 3326.03

BloombergBarclaysUSCredit(This index

includes all publicly issued, fixed-rate, non-convertible, invest-

ment-grade, dollar-denominated, SEC-registered corporate

debt. All issues have at least one year to maturity and outstand-

ing par value of at least $250 million. Jan. 1, 1973=0.) (v)

3052.31 3034.86 2701.49

RyanLabsTreasuryIndex(Index of total return from

active Treasury notes and bonds. Dec. 31, 1996=100.)

303.00 300.55 266.55

Last Prev. YrAgo

Week Week Week

BondBuyer20BondIndex(Index of yields of 20

general obligation municipal bonds.)

2.66 2.76 4.18

BondBuyerMunicipalBondIndex(Index of 40

actively-traded tax-exempt bonds; component issues are

changed regularly to keep the index a current picture of the

market. Source: The Bond Buyer

3.58 3.62 4.14

Stock/BondYieldGap-s(Difference between yield on

highest-grade corporate bonds and yield on stocks on the DJIA.)

–.46 –.52 –1.90

YieldonDJEqualWeightUSCorpBondIdx:

Corp Bonds, (y) 2.94 3.02 4.14

v-WeekendedThursday.y-Yieldtomaturity,weekendedThursday.

z-Source:Refinitiv.*BarclaysT-BondIndexdiscontinuedbyfirm.

MONEYSUPPLY

MoneySupply(Bil.$) Latest Prev. Yr.AgoYOY%Chg

WeekendedSeptember16

M1(seas.adjusted) 3,875.5r3,890.13,707.3 4.54

M1(notadjusted) 3,745.7r3,762.43,593.6 4.23

M2(seas.adjusted) 15,021.2r15,010.814,248.3 5.42

M2(notadjusted) 15,050.5r15,041.614,267.3 5.49

TwoWeeksendedSeptember11

M1Multiplier(St.LouisFed) 1.181 1.168 1.039 13.67

MonthlyMoneySupply

MonthendedAugust

M1(seas.adjusted) r3,839.7r3,852.23,703.3 3.68

M2(seas.adjusted) r14,953.414,871.214,217.2 5.18

GOLD PERFORMANCE

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

O N D J F M A M J J AS

Barron's Gold Mining Index (529.08)

s

Handy & Harman Gold Price

s

It’s the Economy: As economic mea-

sures cooled a bit, gold’s price eased

0.8% last week, to $1,490 an ounce.

ARMSINDEX

TheArmsindex,alsoknownastheshorttermtradingindex,isanumber

derivedbydividingonequotientintoanotherquotient.Thenumeratorin

the index is the number of advancing stocks divided by the number of

declining stocks. As of 3/14/11, the denominator in the index is now the

compositevolumeofadvancingstocksdividedbythecompositevolumeof

decliningstocks.

Daily 9/23 9/24 9/25 9/26 9/27

NYSE 1.14 1.85 1.11 1.41 1.23

NYSEAmerican .28 .74 1.88 2.86 1.60

Nasdaq .87 1.08 .78 1.00 1.41

SouthKorea (Won) .0008313 .0008374 1202.99 1194.13

SriLanka (Rupee) .0055 .0055 181.9000 181.1900

Sweden (Krona) .1021 .1030 9.7941 9.7081

Switzerland (Franc) 1.0092 1.0092 .9909 .9909

Taiwan (Dollar) .03221 .03226 31.047 31.000

Thailand (Baht) .03266 .03282 30.620 30.470

Turkey (New Lira)-d .1763 .1741 5.6708 5.7439

Ukraine (Hryvnia) .0415 .0410 24.0960 24.4170

U.K. (Pound) 1.2290 1.2475 .8137 .8016

Uruguay (Peso) ...... .. ...... .. ...... .. ...... ..

Financial .02711 .02721 36.890 36.750

----

Euro 1.0941 1.1018 .9140 .9076

SpecialDrawingRights(SDR)arebasedonexchangeratesfortheU.S.,

British,andJapanesecurrencies.Source:InternationalMonetaryFund.

a-RussianCentralBankrate.b-governmentrate.d-rebasedasofJan.1,

2005.y-floatingrate.

Market Laboratory

MONEYRATES

Latest Prev. YrAgo

Week Week

DiscountRate(NY) 21 / 2 21 / 2 23 / 4

PrimeRate(base) 5 551 / 4

FedFundsRate

Avg effective offer 121 / 25 167 / 77 215 / 79

Avg weekly auction-c 2.12 2.13 1.92

T-BillsRate

13 weeks, Coupon Yield 1.946 1.987 2.223

13 weeks, Auction Rate 1.905 1.945 2.180

26 weeks, Coupon Yield 1.909 1.919 2.380

26 weeks, Auction Rate 1.860 1.870 2.320
Avg weekly auction-c 1.91 1.92 2.13

BrokerCallRate 3 3/4 3 3/4 4

BankersAcceptances

1 month 2.05 2.05 2.20

2 months 2.05 2.05 2.20

3 months 2.10 2.10 2.35

6 months 2.10 2.10 2.58

EuroLiborRate

1 month -0.508 -0.501 -0.402

3 months -0.437 -0.423 -0.353

6 months -0.416 -0.408 -0.314

12 months -0.357 -0.333 -0.213

LiborInterbankRate

1 month 2.03 2.04 2.26

3 months 2.10 2.13 2.40

6 months 2.06 2.07 2.60

12 months 2.04 2.07 2.92

ForeignPrimeRates

Canada 3.95 3.95 3.70

Germany 0.00 0.00 0.00

Japan 1.475 1.475 1.475

Switzerland 0.50 0.50 0.50

Britain 0.75 0.75 0.75

OtherMoneyRates

Fannie Mae Home Loan:

30-Year Fixed Conv 3.27 3.32 4.33

Bank money market-z 0.23 0.23 0.20

Interest Checking-z 0.08 0.08 0.08

6-Month Certif-z 0.58 0.59 0.38

12-Month Certif-z 0.83 0.85 0.76
30 Month Accounts-z 0.87 0.91 0.98

5-Year Certificates-z 1.17 1.20 1.32

U.S. Savings EE Bonds:

Long-Term (5yrs+) 0.10 0.10 0.10

c-Annualizedyields,adjustedforconstantmaturity,reportedby

theFederalReserveonaweeklyaveragebasis.
Sources:TullettPreboninformation,Ltd.
Factset.z-Bankrate.com.

1.00

0.90

0.80

0.70

0.60

0.50

3.80

3.15

2.50

1.85

1.20

0.55

S&P 100 CBOE

O N D J F M A M J J A S

CBOE PUT/CALL RATIO vs S&P 100

Source: CBOE

Readings in the CBOE equity put-call ratio of 60:100

and in the S&P 100 of 125:100 are considered bullish,

for instance. Bearish signals flash when the equity

put-call level reaches the vicinity of 30:100 and the

index ratio hits 75:100.

S&P 100

s

CBOE s

FOREIGNEXCHANGE

Friday,September27,2019

TheNewYorkforeignexchangemid-rangeratesarequotedat5

p.m. Eastern time by Tullett Prebon. Retail transactions pro-

vide fewer units of foreign currency per dollar.

Foreign Foreign U.S.$in U.S.$in

Currency Currency Foreign Foreign

inU.S.$ inU.S.$ Currency Currency

Country Fri. LastFri. Fri. LastFri.

Argentina (Peso)-y .0174 .0176 57.3228 56.6741

Australia (Dollar) .6766 .6765 1.4780 1.4782

Bahrain (Dinar) 2.6529 2.6525 .3769 .3770

Brazil (Real) .2404 .2411 4.1591 4.1472

Bulgaria (Lev) .5594 .5633 1.7875 1.7751

Canada (Dollar) .7551 .7539 1.3243 1.3263

Chile (Peso) .001377 .001393 726.30 717.70

China (Renminbi) .1404 .1410 7.1228 7.0916

Colombia (Peso) .0002888 .0002936 3462.85 3405.75

Croatia (Kuna) .1476603 .1488871 6.77 6.72

Czech.Rep. (Koruna) ...... .. ...... .. ...... .. ...... ..

Commercial rate .04234 .04260 23.618 23.473

Denmark (Krone) .1465 .1475 6.8245 6.7778

Ecuador US Dollar 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000

Egypt (Pound)-y .0613 .0613 16.3120 16.3080

HongKong (Dollar) .1275 .1276 7.8404 7.8382

Hungary (Forint) .003262 .003302 306.57 302.87

Iceland (Krona) .008123 .008031 123.11 124.51

India (Rupee) .01418 .01406 70.509 71.141

Indonesia (Rupiah) .0000706 .0000711 14165 14055

Israel (Shekel) .2872 .2839 3.4822 3.5219

Japan (Yen) .009266 .009297 107.93 107.56

Kazakhstan (Tenge) .002577 .002580 388.01 387.66

Kuwait (Dinar) 3.2857 3.2927 .3043 .3037

Macau (Pataca) .1238 .1239 8.0758 8.0699

Malaysia (Ringgit)-b .2385 .2395 4.1930 4.1755

Mexico (Peso) ...... .. ...... .. ...... .. ...... ..

Floating rate .0508 .0514 19.6928 19.4508

NewZealand (Dollar) .6295 .6258 1.5886 1.5980

Norway (Krone) .1102 .1104 9.0752 9.0611

Oman (Rial) 2.5970 2.5973 .3851 .3850

Pakistan (Rupee) .00638 .00638 156.850 156.830

Philippines (Peso) .01925 .01923 51.941 52.003

Poland (Zloty) .2496 .2519 4.0058 3.9699

Qatar (Rial) .2744 .2750 3.6443 3.6364

Russia (Ruble)-a .01547 .01562 64.661 64.014

SaudiArabia (Riyal) .2666 .2666 3.7510 3.7513

Singapore (Dollar) .7240 .7264 1.3813 1.3767

SouthAfrica (Rand) .0660 .0670 15.1526 14.9280

Foreign Foreign U.S.$in U.S.$in

Currency Currency Foreign Foreign

inU.S.$ inU.S.$ Currency Currency

Country Fri. LastFri. Fri. LastFri.