Barron\'s - 30.09.2019

September 30, 2019 BARRON’S 9

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The BLS releases the jobs report for September. Economists

forecast a 150,000 rise in nonfarm payrolls, and that the

unemployment rate to will remain steady at 3.7%.

Friday

Monday 9/

The Institute for Supply Manage-

ment releases the MNI Chicago Pur-

chasing Managers Index for Septem-

ber. Economists forecast a 50 reading,

roughly even with August’s data. In

June and July, the Chicago PMI was

below 50, indicating that the manufac-

turing and service sectors were

contracting.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

releases its Texas Manufacturing Out-

look Survey for September. Consensus

estimates are for a 2.1 reading, down

from August’s 2.7.

Tuesday 10/

Spice maker McCormick reports

third-quarter earnings.

The Reserve Bank of Australia

announces its monetary-policy deci-

sion. The futures market predicts a

better than 50% chance that the

central bank will cut its cash rate

from 1% to 0.75%.

The Census Bureau reports con-

struction spending data for August.

Expectations are for a 0.4% bump

to a seasonally adjusted annual rate

of $1.29 trillion.

Wednesday 10/

Lamb Weston Holdings, Lennar ,

and Paychex release quarterly

results.

Ford Motor reports U.S. sales data

for the third quarter.

Eli Lilly hosts a webcast to update

investors on some of its cancer drugs.

Clorox hosts a webcast of its 2019

analyst day. The company’s manage-

ment will discuss its new corporate

strategy.

ADP releases its National Employ-

ment Report for September. Expecta-

tions are for a gain of 150,000 private-

sector jobs, down from August’s

195,000 rise.

Thursday 10/

Constellation Brands, Costco

Wholesale , and PepsiCo hold

conference calls to discuss earnings.

HP Inc. holds a securities analyst

meeting in Palo Alto.

Intuit hosts its annual investor day

in Mountain View, Calif.

The ISM releases its Non-Manufac-

turing Index for September. Consen-

sus estimates are for a 55.3 reading,

below August’s 56.4 figure. Unlike

ISM’s Manufacturing Index, which

dipped below 50 in August, the Non-

Manufacturing Index has been com-

fortably above the expansionary level

of 50 this year.

Friday 10/

The Federal Reserve Board holds a

Fed Listens event in Washington, D.C.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell will give the

opening remarks at the symposium,

where the subject will be “Perspec-

tives on Maximum Employment and

Price Stability.”

Buckle Up,

Tesla Holders

Tesla ’s stock is of sufficient interest to investors–both

bullish and bearish–that just about any day could bring a

sharp move for just about any imaginable reason. An-

other big one could occur this week.

The electric auto maker typically reports the previous

three months’ deliveries and production numbers shortly

after each quarter ends. Tesla doesn’t announce the date

in advance, but Monday is the last day of September.

Tesla usually discloses deliveries by model, illuminat-

ing likely margins. Wall Street expects 98,000 third-

quarter deliveries, a bit above the second quarter’s 95,386.

(On Thursday, the Electrek website reported that an in-

ternal email from CEO Elon Musk said that Tesla has “a

shot” at 100,000 deliveries. The company did not re-

spond to Barron’s request for comment.) The range of

guesses tracked by FactSet—89,000to 108,000—is nar-

row, compared to that for the bottom line.

Wall Street’s consensus estimate is for a loss of 42

cents a share. Some analysts, however, foresee a deficit of

more than a dollar per share; others expect a profit. Musk

has said that Tesla might break even in the third quarter,

then post a fourth-quarter profit. The shares have never-

theless fallen 8.7% since before Tesla’s last earnings re-

port on July 24.

Some probably have already moved past the third-

quarter outlook. “Gross margins, and whether Tesla has

a viable economic model, remain the paramount ques-

tions,” wrote Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi on

Tuesday. “It is unclear investors will get clear answers in

the foreseeable future.”—DAVIDMARINO-NACHISON

Rolling Downhill

Tesla stock has dropped 27% in 2019.

Stand and Deliver

Tesla is expected to have delivered

98,000carsinthethirdquarter.

Jan. ’

Q

’

Q

’

Q

’

Q

’

April July

$

350

50,

75,

100,

25,

125,

250

200

150

0

300

Source: FactSet

Source: FactSet

Model 3 Model S/X

Day Consensus Estimate Year Ago

M

Thor Industries (4Q) $1.46 $1.

Cal-Maine Foods (1Q) 0.85 0.

T

United Natural Foods (4Q) 0.52 0.

McCormick (3Q) 1.29 1.

More Earnings on Page M

Coming Earnings

Day Consensus Est Last Period

T August Construction Spending 0.4% 0.1%

TH August Factory Orders -0.5% 1.4%

F September Nonfarm Payrolls 140,000 130,

September Unemployment Rate 3.7% 3.7%

August International Trade $-54.5 bil $-54.0 bil

Unless otherwise indicated. a-Advanced; f-Final; p-Preliminary;

r-Revised

Source: FactSet

Consensus Estimate

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