8 The Nation. October 7, 2019
To begin with the obvious, Trump seeks a world in which
the Trump Organization and what’s now being called the
Trump dynasty can flourish. This may seem trivial compared
with the grand themes of the past—“making the world safe
for democracy” it’s not—but it’s likely foremost in his mind.
He clearly wants to be remembered as one of America’s
greatest presidents, with giant statues and other monuments
to his glory. He also seeks a global environment in which his
progeny can build Trump Towers virtually anywhere on the
planet. This is not a world riven by perpetual military con-
flict or made uninhabitable by thermonuclear devastation.
Although Trump is unlikely ever to articulate a pacifist mes-
sage, his intense desire to promote the Trump brand abroad
and ensure a legacy of personal greatness mitigates, to some
degree, any inclination he may possess to engage in reckless
military action against putative enemies.
In line with this outlook, Trump is open to grand bargains
with erstwhile adversaries, as long as such agreements can be
portrayed as burnishing his legacy of greatness. Yes, he char-
acterized the Iran agreement as a “bad deal” and pulled out of
the INF because it purportedly advantaged Russia. But he is
not opposed to accords with those countries per se. If he can
oversee an agreement that is viewed as producing significant
advantages for the United States, he’ll jump right on board.
There is, of course, another side to this coin: Trump prefers
dealing with fellow autocrats who can join him in a private
room with no one else but interpreters and hammer out a deal.
Trump’s affinity for foreign dictators has long been noted, butit will require further scrutiny in Bolton’s absence. Hard-line
Republicans, with their abiding loyalty to Cold War precepts,
continue to profess adherence to anti- communist shibboleths
like freedom, liberty, and democracy. This naturally aligns
them with the NATO countries against Russia and with Ja-
pan and South Korea against China and North Korea. But
Trump, for all his bluster, shares none of these premises. His
core values are accumulating private wealth, promoting the
Trump brand, ensuring the continued supremacy of white
people, silencing detractors and journalists, and perpetuating
the dominance of fossil fuels. Any foreign leaders who profess
similar values are likely to be welcomed at the White House;
those who don’t can expect a cold shoulder from Washington,
whatever their historical ties to this country.
With Bolton gone, Trump is likely to reorganize the NSC
staff in ways more to his liking. (Most of the figures now
being considered as Bolton’s replacement are administration
loyalists with no ax to grind.) How this will play out in terms
of specific issues cannot be foreseen, but it could ease the way
for fresh talks with the Iranians and a new summit with Kim
Jong-un of North Korea. Also possible is the convening of
new arms control talks with the Russians, possibly increasing
the odds for survival of the New Strategic Arms Reduction
Treaty, due to expire in February 2021.
This is not to say that Trump is wholly allergic to the
use of military force. Indeed, some US military response to
the recent drone attacks on Saudi oil facilities—claimed by
the Houthi rebels in Yemen but which Pompeo said were
directed by the Iranians—is likely. Armed confrontations
between US and Chinese naval vessels in
the South China Sea are also conceivable.
But extended US intervention and nation
building, as undertaken in Iraq and Af-
ghanistan, is not a likely option.
At the same time, we should expect
increased US backing for right-wing
strongmen like President Andrzej Duda
of Poland and Prime Minister Viktor
Orbán of Hungary. Accompanying
this trend will be growing support for
anti-immigrant measures worldwide, a
retreat from advocating LGBTQ rights
abroad, intensified attacks on interna-
tional efforts to curb the use of fossil fuels,
and the accelerated use of trade sanctions
to punish insufficiently servile enemies
and allies. Whether these developments
will, in the end, outweigh any benefits
that might arise from Bolton’s departure
remains to be seen, but it should be clear
that it will be Trump’s agenda that domi-
nates US foreign policy from now on, not
that of his subordinate. MICHAEL T. KLAREAs The Nation went to press, Trump named
Robert C. O’Brien, the special presidential
envoy for hostage affairs at the State De-
partment, to replace Bolton. O’Brien, whom
Trump interviewed for his previous job, de-
scribed the president as “the greatest hostage
negotiator in history.”(continued from page 4)COMIX NATION
MATT BORS