Science_Illustrated_Australia_-_Issue70_2019

scienceillustrated.com.au | 29

It is 2099. The Arctic sea ice is

long gone, and the world's

major glaciers in Greenland

and Antarctica are bleeding

billions of cubic metres of

meltwater. Huge regions in Africa, Asia and

South America are scorching lifeless deserts,

while rises in ocean levels force the 11 billion

people of the world to live in densely popu-

lated areas in the temperate zones. Every

year extreme rainfall, tornadoes, hurricanes

and flooding destroy ever more of the

quickly disappearing agricultural regions,

and food is scarce.

That is what the future for you and the

planet might be like if atmospheric carbon

dioxide levels keep rising the way they are

now. At worst, global temperatures could

increase by more than five degrees before

the end of this century, resulting in major

food challenges, massive refugee flows, and

a constant struggle to protect ourselves

against disasters caused by the weather.

Emissions are still increasing

1 or 10 degrees warmer? Scientists’ climate

models have been greatly improved over

recent decades, but they are still having

It is 2099, and temperatures

have fallen slightly again

this year. In South America,

the rainforest is gaining

ground again, farmers are

reclaiming farmland back from deserts

throughout the world, and in the Arctic a

small area with sea ice survives the

summers. In a joint effort, the nations of

the world have forced temperatures down

to a level that is only 1.5 degrees above the

level before global industrialisation.

That is what our future could be like, if

we act now. In 2015, the nations of the world

agreed to keep temperature rises to a

maximum of 1.5 degrees. The world has

already become one degree warmer since

industrialisation, leaving a margin of only

0.5 degree. To fulfil our ambition, we must

curb our carbon-dioxide emissions – but

other initiatives are also required, since even

if we stopped our emissions today, the carbon

dioxide already in the atmosphere would

keep on heating the world.

More warming

The cause of the global warming that we

experience right now is the emission of

The world becomes

5 degrees warmer

Temperatures have risen by 1°C
over the past 100 years, but they
will probably rise much faster over
approaching decades if we do not
curb greenhouse gas emissions.

The world becomes

0.5 degree warmer

Earth’s present temperature is
rising rapidly, but if we go all-in on
green technologies, we could curb
the development and even reverse
it by the end of the century.

Degrees

Year

8

6

4

2

0

1950 2000 2050 2100

Degrees

Year

8

6

4

2

0

1950 2000 2050 2100

The chart is based on the UN Climate Change
2013 – The Physical Science Basis report

The chart is based on the UN Special Report:
Global Warming of 1.5°C.