113arose during the Great Garuda, but by then there would be
very few other options left on the table.
With the timescales for the project so long, there is still
a chance that politics could once again get in the way, and
Coenen is not entirely certain that everything will be resolved
before Jakarta reaches the point of no return.
“I think you can compare it to the problem of climate change- where governments do see the problem, but they postpone
very expensive and difficult measures towards the longer
term, and only focus on the quick wins... That is the nature
of this kind of problem and the way politicians solve it,” he
says. “Indonesia is a country where things can stall, or happen
very fast. It doesn’t seem like this country has something in
between. In an optimistic view, this is a just-in-time society.
But in a more realistic view, we’re always a little bit too late.” �
Peter Guest wrote about BioCarbon’s use of flying, seed-firing
drones to reforest Myanmar’s mangrove wetlands in 05.19periods where the market goes up into the sky. What you don’t
want is that your flood defence depends on that dynamic.”
He is also aware, he says, that more work is needed to
make sure that the project’s architects understand the
complex social issues that it brings up. Discussions have
often been led by foreign experts and by engineers who
are unaware of or unwilling to confront the messy reality
on the ground. “You have to commit yourself to the social
issues that you are creating,” he says. “And don’t just scratch
the surface – but go very deep.”
Coenen estimates that the total cost of the dyke will be
around $4 billion (£3.2 billion), with another $4 billion
for pumping stations and on-land reservoirs – although
that could change. “We are heavily dependent on the sand
price. If it goes up one dollar per tonne, we will have to pay
€1 billion extra, because the volumes are so big. A very smalluptick of the price has enormous consequences,” he says.
The dyke will act as a huge breakwater to reduce the height
of waves entering the bay, and to take the momentum out
of storm surges so that they do not wash over the inner sea
walls. Crucially, it leaves room for failure. The base level
plan assumes that land subsidence will be addressed, but
it includes contingencies in case it continues, or if sea level
rise occurs faster than anticipated.
“Two scenarios are still on the table: close the bay, or
keep it open,” Coenen says. “That really depends on what
will happen with the land subsidence. If the land subsidence
remains as it is or even accelerates, then you have to go to
this mega closed system. If the land subsidence is managed
then we can still keep the bay of Jakarta open.”
That call will be made around 2030 when, at current
rates of subsidence, the existing walls will be obsolete.
Closing the dyke would be a massive project in its own
right, and raise all of the same issues of water pollution thatLEFT: BRIDGES LEADING TO
ONE OF THE FOUR RECL AIMED
“GREAT GARUDA” ISLANDS
RIGHT: THE REMAINS OF THE
TA X OFFICE IN BUKIT DURI.
THE BUILDING WAS
FLOODED IN THE 1970S, AND
THEN ABANDONED11-19-FTJakarta.indd 105 13/08/2019 15:13