4 ★ FINANCIAL TIMES Thursday10 October 2019
attack directions for ground formations
will remain Tel Abyad and Ras al-Ayn,”
said Can Kasapoglu, director of security
and defence research at Edam, an Istan-
bul-based think-tank. Such a contained
operation might not break Mr Trump’s
unspecified “limits”, but it could pose
other challenges.
The Turkish military is the second
largest in Nato and has experience of
two previous Syrian operations, as well
as urban warfare against Kurdish mili-
tants on Turkish soil. But the group in
the crosshairs, the Kurdish-dominated
Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), has
vowed to defend itself “at all costs”.
Some experts believe it has anti-tank
and anti-aircraft weapons that could
pose a threat to Turkish troops.
It was not clear whether the US had
given permission for Turkish jets to use
the north-east Syria airspace, controlled
by the US. On Monday, the state-run
Anadolu news agency said the Pentagon
had blocked Turkey’s access to joint sur-
veillance and intelligence data.
Any effort to bar Turkey from using
the airspace could cause setbacks for
ground operations, experts say. Some
military analysts warn “mission creep”
dangers, given Mr Erdogan’s grand plan
to create a Syrian “safe zone” roughly
370km long and 32km deep.
Other potential risks include retalia-
tory bombings by Kurdish militia in
Turkish cities or the SDF striking a deal
with President Bashar al-Assad —
floated by the group again in recent days
— which would force Ankara to decide
whether it wanted to fight the Syrian
army, say analysts.
Mr Erdogan may enjoy a bump in
public support after launching the oper-
ation. But any short-term political gain
could be outweighed if an offensive puts
sustained pressure on an economy still
recovering from last year’s currency cri-
sis, which triggered a recession and ris-
ing unemployment.LAURA PITEL— ANKARA
Turkey has launched its long-awaited
offensive in north-east Syria, efying and
international outcry over the threat
posed to US-backed Kurdish forces and
the campaign against Isis jihadis.
Turkey president Recep Tayyip
Erdogan said yesterday the operation,
codenamed Peace Spring, would “elimi-
nate the terror threat towards our coun-
try” from Kurdish militants and Isis.
Writing on Twitter, he said Turkey
would destroy the “terror corridor” that
some actors were seeking to form on
Turkey’s southern border, and establish
a “safe zone” that would allow Syrian
refugees to return home. Turkey’s aim,
he said, was to “bring peace to the
region”, adding: “We will preserve
Syria’s territorial integrity and liberate
local communities from terrorists.”
As the Turkishoffensive egan, Mrb
Erdogan was facing an array of compet-
ing interests and demands. He hopes to
satisfy the millions of Turks who have
been restlessly awaiting an operation
against Syrian Kurdish militants.
But he must also navigate mixed mes-
sages from US president Donald Trump
who, having ordered US troops to get out
of the way of a Turkish operation, later
tweeted that he would “obliterate” Tur-
key economically if it went “off limits”.
Soli Ozel, an expert on international
relations at Istanbul’s Kadir Has Univer-
sity, said the Turkish president had to
show he could stand up to Mr Trump’s
threats, without going too far.
“To keep it at the rhetorical level is
fine, but to get into a brawl with the US
president is something I don’t think he
desires,” he said. “He does not want to
have a serious confrontation whereby
Trump will take measures. We have bit-
ter memories of last summer when
Trump did a tweet and pushed the lira
to 7.2 [against the dollar].”
Mr Erdogan has warned for years he
wants to attack the Syrian Kurdish mili-
tias — backed by the US but viewed by
Turkey as terrorists — who control a
swath of territory on his nation’s south-
ern flank. He wants to disrupt their
efforts to establish a semi-autonomous
region on his doorstep, and has also
pledged to turn the region into a “safe
zone” where some of the 3.6m Syrian
refugees living in Turkey could return
or be resettled.
Despite the conflicting signals from
Mr Trump — who on Tuesday repeated
his warnings while also confirming a
visit by Mr Erdogan to Washington next
month — many analysts believe the
Turkish president had no choice but to
order in his armed forces.
Fighter jets signalled the start of the
operation yesterday afternoon with
bombing raids near the mixed Arab-
Kurdish town of Ras al-Ayn, which lies
just across the Turkish border. Later,
Turkish forces reportedly pummeled
the town of Tal Abyad, 100km to the
west, with artillery fire. US troops had
already left the region.
Though the Turkish army will lead
the assault, much of the manpower will
be provided by the new Turkish-backed
Syrian National Army alliance of rebel
fighters.
Although Turkish and Syrian media
reported air raids as far east as towns
near the Iraqi border, military experts
said they expected Ankara’s initial focus
would be limited to a relatively small
area. “My educated guess is, the initial
I N T E R N AT I O N A L
MICHAEL PEEL— BRUSSELS
EU states have warned of the political
risks around suppliers to new 5G
mobile networks, in a sign of a tough-
ening European stance on perceived
security threats fromHuawei nda
otherChinesecompanies.
A report unveiledyesterday said that
non-EU businesses bidding to build the
new generation systems could be “sub-
ject to interference” when they have
strong links to their country’s govern-
ment, are vulnerable to official pres-
sure, or work under laws that lack
“democratic checks and balances”.
The document — produced by a secu-
rity group comprising the 28 member
states and supported by the European
Commission — is thelatest move
towards tighter European scrutiny of 5G
and other critical infrastructure in
response to concerns over both Chinese
influence and US pressure.
It also opens a door for member states
to invoke its findings when considering
their future business dealings with com-
panies such as Huawei.
Julian King, the EU’s security union
commissioner, said the potentially far-
reaching uses of5G networks reated anc
obvious risk of exploitation by “bad
actors, state or non-state... including
through the supply-chain relationship”.
“If existing telecoms networks are an
attractive target, this logically is an evenmore attractive target,” said Sir Julian.
“That means we need to look even
more carefully... at the suppliers, both
from a technical point of view and non-
technical vulnerabilities.”
The report — which draws on 5G risk
assessments drawn up by all EU coun-
tries — stresses the need for states to
build long-term relationships of trust
with suppliers and curb vulnerabilities
from a “lack of diversity in equipment
and solutions”. While the documentdoes not name any companies or coun-
tries, a further paper due by the end of
the year will propose specific measures
to deal with risks, which could include
branding certain products insecure.
Asked if the subjective nature of the
tests for political risk still left a “fig leaf”
for countries to use Huawei products,
Sir Julian said: “It doesn’t look like a fig
leaf to me”.
Critics including the USsay EU coun-
tries have been slow to deal with the
potential problems posed by Huawei,
given the speed at which 5G is being
tested, auctioned and rolled out by the
largest telecoms companies across the
continent. European countries includ-
ing Poland have signed or discussed
bilateralagreements ith Washington,w
which has warned it could curb security
and intelligence co-operation with
countries using Huawei products.
Concerns raised by Huawei sceptics
include that its founder,Ren Zhengfei, is
a former Chinese People’s Liberation
Army member. They also point to the
access Chinese security agenciescould
gain to businesses under domestic law.Cyber security
EU warns of political threat from 5G suppliers
BETHAN STATON— LONDONThe number of EU citizens and their
families applying for UK residency
after Brexit has hit 2m, following a
record number of submissions last
monththatcreatedalargebacklog.In September 520,600 applied to the
settled status scheme, comparedwith a
previous high of 389,000 in April. There
are an estimated 3.6m European citi-
zens and family members living in the
UK.
Priti Patel, UK home secretary, said
she was “thrilled” with the surge in
applications; the total includes 1.8m
applications by the end of September
and 200,000 so far this month.
But only 373,000 applications were
concluded in September, creating a
backlog of more than 147,000. Maike
Bohn, a spokesperson for EU citizens
rights group the3million, described the
situation as “worrying”.
“This indicates cases are becoming
more complex and people might have
more and more difficulties evidencing
their residence in the UK,” she said,adding that the3million regularly
spoke to people waiting weeks or even
months for confirmation of their status
while they submitted furtherpapers.
The Home Office states the average
processing time for an application is five
days, but has said this could be longer if
people need to send further paperwork.Available support for applicants
includes a helpline, toolkit and funding
for community organisations, and an
average of 20,000 applications are proc-
essed each day. “There is plenty of sup-
port and information on offer to help
people apply and get the status they
need,” said Brandon Lewis, minister for
EU exit and no-deal preparation.
Anxiety among EU citizens remains
high, however. Ms Bohn said the jump in
September applications was because EUcitizens were “terrified of the conse-
quences of [a] no-deal” departure on
October 31. EU citizens and their fami-
lies have until at least December 2020 to
apply for settled status. Until then the
Home Office has guaranteed that they
will be able to continue to live and work
in the UK, under interim measures in
place even if the UK leaves the EU with-
out a deal on October 31.
Ms Patel cast doubt on these assur-
ances in August when she announced
that freedom of movement would end
abruptly on October 31. Although she
backtracked on the plan, Ms Bohn said
trust in the government remains low
and EU citizens fear being exposed to
immigration controls.
She also voiced concern at the large
number of people granted pre-settled
status, a less secure status which means
the holder has residence for five years,
but must update it at a later date. Some
43 per cent of concluded applications
were granted pre-settled status last
month, the same as in August.
Notebook age 8p
Markets age 19pImmigration
Europeans seeking UK settled status hit 2m
1920
The Kurds are promised their own land
underone of the treaties that end the
first world war and dismantles the
Ottoman Empire. But the pledgegoes
unfulfilled.
1923
The Turkish republic is foundedafter a
war of independence, andfaces
uprisings from Kurdish tribes. These are
quashed with military force.Policies
repressing Kurds’ rightsare imposed.
1946
The Soviet Union, which occupies Iran
with the Allies,encourages Kurdish
nationalism and the establishment of a
mini-state,the Republic of Mahabad. The
republic is destroyed when the Soviets
pull out.
1958
Mustafa Barzanireturns to his homeland
in northern Iraq to lead an uprising for
an autonomous Kurdish nation. This
starts a war against the Iraqi state that
lasts until 1970.
1962
A fifth of Syrian Kurds in the largely
Kurdish north-east region are stripped of
Syrian nationality.
1972
Iran’s Shah asks the USto help him
support Barzani’s uprising against the
Iraqi state. Iraq is Soviet-aligned, and the
US agrees to begin supplying the Kurds
with arms.In 1975,the Shah makes a deal
with Iraq, cutting out the Kurds.1978
The Kurdistan Workers’ party (PKK), a
radical militant group, is foundedwith
the aim of creating an independent
Kurdish state through violent means.
1984
The PKK uses Kurdish northern Iraq as a
base for a guerrilla war against Turkey,
which continuesfor four decades.
1987-
In thethe Iran-Iraq war, Saddam Hussein,
the Ba’athist dictator, launches a
genocidal campaign against Iraqi Kurds.
1991
A Kurdish uprising in northern Iraq is
encouraged by the administration of
George HW Bush, US president, after
Saddam was pushed out of Kuwait in the
first Gulf war. It is crushed bySaddam.
2003
The US works with Iraqi Kurdsduring the
invasion of Iraq. After the fall of Saddam,
the Kurdistan Region of Iraq gains
autonomous status.
2011
The US chooses experienced Kurdish
fighters of the PKK-aligned People’s
Protection Units (YPG) to spearhead the
fight in north-east Syria against Isis. 2015
The collapse of a faltering peace process
between the PKK and the Turkish state
leads to a surge in violence.
2019
The Syrian Democratic Forces, made up
of Kurdish fighters as well as Arab
groups,finally win territorial victory over
Isis in north-east Syria.
Oct 7
President Donald Trump says US troops
are leaving the Turkish-Syrian border
area, where they have been conducting
joint patrols with Turkey as part of a
mechanism to reassure Ankara that
separatist Kurdish fighters will not use
the area to attack Turkey. Mr Trump is
widely seen as giving a green light to a
Turkish military advance into the
territory.Chloe Cornishand Laura PitelFeeling of
betrayal
drives
Kurds’ long
battle for
homelandTimelineMember states need to
curb vulnerabilities from
a ‘lack of diversity inequipment and solutions’
DEMETRI SEVASTOPULO AND AIME
WILLIAMS— WASHINGTON
ANDREW ENGLAND— LONDONThe US has accused Iran of delivering
oiltoSyriadespitedenialsfromTehran
that atanker seized y British troopsb
and released weeks later had been sail-
ingtoSyrianportstosellcrudeinviola-
tionofUSandEUsanctions.Mike Pompeo, US secretary of state, said
the Adrian Darya 1 tanker, which had
remained off the coast of Syria for sev-
eral weeks, had offloaded its oil via
another ship called the Jasmine.
“Oil from the #AdrianDarya1 has
been offloaded in Syria, proving that
Iran lied to the UK and Gibraltar,” Mr
Pompeo said on Twitter.
“This terrorist oil will fund Assad’s
war and Iran’s sectarian violence. EU
members should condemn this action,
uphold the rule of law and hold Iran
accountable.”
Mr Pompeo’s tweet included satellite
images that appeared to show the
Adrian Darya 1 transferring oil to the
Jasmine a week ago before heading toBaniyas port in Syria. A US official said
the Jasmine made physical delivery of
the oil on Monday.
The UKaccused Iran ast month ofl
selling the tanker’s oil to Syria, saying
the Islamic republic had violated “inter-
national norms”. The sale, and now
delivery, of the crude to Syria has
angered and embarrassed the UK.
British commandos had seized the
ship off Gibraltar in July because it was
suspected of violating EU sanctions by
suppling oil to the regime of President
Bashar al-Assad.
Gibraltar, a British overseas terri-
tory,rejected a legal bid y the US tob
detain the Adrian Darya 1. It released
the vessel in August after saying it had
received assurances from Tehran that
the crude would not be delivered to
Syria.
The vessel then headed to the eastern
Mediterranean and was seen via satel-
lite sailing off the coast of the Arab state.
Iran has been one of Mr Assad’s main
foreign backers in Syria’s eight-year civil
war, and it has supplied the regime with
oil throughout the conflict.
The US last monthtried to secure con-
trol f the vessel by encouraging its cap-o
tain to sail the tanker to a country that
had agreed in advance to seize it on
behalf of the US, and even offered the
captain several million dollars as an
inducement.
The seizure of the Adrian Darya 1,
which was previously called the Grace 1,
heightened concerns about maritime
security in the oil-rich Gulf.
After it was detained in Gibraltar,
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard seized a
British-flagged vessel, the Stena
Impero, in the Strait of Hormuz, a key
Gulf waterway, in apparent retaliation.
Iran released that vessel last month.
The capture of the ship came amid
growing international concern over
maritime security n the Strait of Hor-i
muz, one of the world’s most important
oil trading shipping routes.Erdogan risks US economic backlash
as Turkey offensive in Syria begins
President moves against ‘terror threat’ but has to beware Trump warning of going too far
Middle East
Iran supplied
oil to Assad
from seized
tanker, claims
Pompeo
Turkey-backed
members of the
Syrian National
Army prepare
for the offensive
on Tuesday
near the
Turkey-Syria
border
STR/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock‘Worrying’ issue:
a badge from EU
citizens’ rights
group the3million,
which is anxious
about a no-dealMustafa
Barzani, left,
meets Saddam
Hussein in
1970 — Central
Press/Getty Images‘This terrorist oil will fund
Assad’s war and Iran’s
sectarian violence’Mike Pompeo