Thursday10 October 2019 ★ FINANCIAL TIMES 7

F T B I G R E A D. POLAND

Over the past three decades, Poland has seen its economy triple in size. But the Law and Justice party, the

frontrunner in Sunday’s elections, has mobilised voters who feel left behind while taking on the EU.

ByJamesShotterandAgataMajos

government and its relentless attacks on

the opposition, as well as support from

the Church for Law and Justice. But

Civic Coalition’s problems also lie closer

to home. It lacks a charismatic leader. It

has struggled to renew itself after defeat

in 2015. And, faced with the emergence

of a new leftwing coalition, it seems

unsure whether to tryto defeat Law and

Justice by winning back moderate

conservatives, or instead by trying to

consolidate Poland’s liberal forces.

“People were really tired with Civic

Platform,” says Ms Szczesniak. “After

eight years people wanted change. And

this party wasn’t changing. Its most

popular politician,Donald Tusk, left

and went abroad [to the European

Council]. And people perceive its politi-

cians as old, tired and cynical.”

Too often, Law and Justice’s critics

haveshowed contempt and incompre-

hension for those who supported the

party. “Sometimes a beautiful woman

forgets herself and gives herself to some

bastard,” Adam Michnik, a former dissi-

dent and editor-in-chief of the liberal

newspaper, Gazeta Wyborcza, said in

2016 when asked why Poles had voted in

Law and Justice. “ButI believe that

Poland will sober up.”

Three years onLaw and Justice seems

certain to emerge as the biggest party

from Sunday’s poll. However, Poland’s

electoral system means that, depending

on how manyparties make it into

parliament, it could still end up short of

a majority. This leaves a faint possibility

that a broad oalition of opposition par-c

ties couldform a government. Mobilisa-

tion will be key for all parties, and Mr

Kaczynski has been imploring his sup-

porters at rallies not just to vote, but to

persuade their friends to do so too.

“It’s not a done deal,” says Aleks Szc-

zerbiak, professor of politics at the Uni-

versity of Sussex. “It really does matter

whether Law and Justice gets an overall

majority. Because if it doesn’t there is a

serious chance that there could be an

alternative government formed.”

The most likely outcome, however,

remains that the 70-year-old Mr Kac-

zynski will be given the chance to con-

tinue his crusade to reshape Poland.

“Maybe it’s a bit exaggerated but when

we look at Orban’s Hungary we are going

more or less in the same direction,” says

Anna Materska-Sosnowska, a political

scientist at the University of Warsaw.

“A central state providing care from

birth... to retirement... But also a

state that controls how you are

supposed to live, with whom you are

supposed to live, and what should be the

model of your family.”

The unfinished counter-revolution

In the 2015 election, Poland’s left was

split between two camps —neither

made it into parliament. Leftwingers

were left unrepresented in the Sejm

(lower house) for the first time since

the country’s return to democracy.

Four years on, Poland’s three main

leftwing groups have joined forces,

and are set to return to the

parliamentary fray. Polls suggest the

newLewica oalition could win aroundc

13 per cent of the vote, which would

make it the third-largest group in

parliament.

The left’s failure in 2015 had far-

reaching consequences, allowing Law

and Justice to gain a parliamentary

majority, despite only winning 38 per cent

of the vote. Its return is likely to have a

significant impact on Poland’s political

discourse, according to Ryszard Luczyn

of analysts Polityka Insight.

“I think they will have a major impact

on the narrative. For the last four years,

we have had a parliament without the

left. Now we will have a political force that

will not be afraid about speaking about

abortion [rights], about separating

church and state,” he says.

The leftwing coalition has put social

and ecological issues at the heart of its

agenda. As well as loosening Poland’s

strict abortion laws, it is pushing for equal

pay for women, an increase in the

minimum wage, and civic partnerships. It

wants the majority ofPolish energy ot

come from renewable sources by 2035.

But the big question is howstable the

coalition will prove o be. Lewica bringst

Parliament

New coalition heralds

return of the left

F

or 15 years, Antoni Peruta

worked in Manchester, one of

more than 2mPoles who left

their country in the early

2000s in search of a better life

abroad.But in 2017, convinced thatthe

central European nation’s economy was

improvingunder the ruling Law and

Justice party, he decided it wastime to

return home.

“Once there was a normal govern-

ment, I came back,” he says, watching

sceptically as a politician from Law and

Justice’s predecessor andmain rival,

Civic Coalition, canvasses voters in the

market square of Wlodawa, atown in

Poland’s poorer eastern region. “I was

force d to leave b e cause it was

impossible to live. But now it’s

completely different. Things have

stabilised. [Life] is very good. And it

keepsgetting better.”

“Talk to the families,” he adds, gestur-

ing to two young couples pushing prams

down an adjoining street. “[Ask them]:

would they like Civic Coalition to come

back? We would chase them away with

axes! That’s what the opinion is.”

On Sunday, Poles will head for the

voting booths in what politicians on

both sides of a bitter partisan divide

have branded the most important elec-

tion since theircountry threw off com-

munism n 1989 — and the economici

progress that has won over Mr Peruta

may well turn out to be Law and Justice’s

trump card.

Over the pastthree decades, Poland

has been through a dizzying social,

political and economic transition.

Within a generation, the country has

transformed itself from a Soviet vassal

state with a failing, centrally-planned

economy into an independent democ-

racy with surging growth. In 1999, it

joined Nato. In 2004, it joined the EU,

and in the years that followed, many

assumed thatPoland as on a one-wayw

track to deeper political and economic

convergence with itsallies in the west.

The past four years have challenged

that assumption. Since coming to power

in 2015, the conservative-nationalist

Law and Justice has pushed back against

EU integration, andthe bloc’s liberal

social values. To theconsternation of

many in Brussels, and more at home, it

has ridden roughshod through checks

and balances, subordinating judges to

politicians and reducing state media to a

claque. Many liberals fear that the vote

is the last chance to stop the country

sliding into the kind of semi-authoritar-

ian netherworld thatViktor Orban ash

created in Hungary.

Conservative values

For Law and Justice voters, something

completely different is at stake. During

the past four years, many have seen

their everyday lives improved by the

batch ofgenerous welfare policies hatt

Law and Justice has introduced. Others

have been cheered by its promotion of

Catholic-infused conservative values.

When they vote in Sunday’s parliamen-

tary election, it will be to keep those

policies. And with opinion polls suggest-

ing a lead of more than 15 points, the

partyis likely to emerge victorious.

At first glance, the timing of Law and

Justice’s success might seem surprising.

Whereas populist movements in the

west, from the US to the UK, have often

gained ground in times of economic

stagnation, Law and Justice, founded

and led byrightwing firebrand Jaroslaw

Kaczynski, has come to the fore while

Poland is enjoying one of the longest

booms in its history.

Since Leszek Balcerowicz introduced

the epoch-making package of reforms —

dubbed “shock therapy” — which began

Poland’s journey to capitalism in 1989,

the country’s economy has almost

trebled in size. It has not had a recession

since 1992, a streak bettered only by

Australia. Based onpurchasing power

parity, Polesare now richer than Greeks

and closing in on the Portuguese.

Growth in gross domestic product —

which topped 5 per cent in 2018 —has

been among the highest in the devel-

oped world in recent years.

“Poland is the poster child for a suc-

cessful transition,” says Beata Javorcik,

chief economist at the European Bank

for Reconstruction and Development.

“Within 30 years the country moved

from a situation with shortages of essen-

tially everything — empty shelves in

shops, where... many products from

meat, butter and cigarettes to chocolate

and vodka were rationed — to joining

the club of rich countries.”

But the rough and tumble of Poland’s

transition also created losers. Millions

poorer east, feltthe benefits of Poland’s

boom had passed them by.When Law

and Justice ran against Civic Platform in

2015, it made promises of a big jump in

welfare spendingone of the central

planks of itscampaign.

The flagship policy was a child benefit

scheme, dubbed 500+, that pledged a

monthly payment of 500 zlotys for

every second and subsequent child, a

sum that could provide larger families

with the equivalent of another salary.

Economists were sceptical about its

affordability, but so far the government

has been able to fund the scheme,

thanks to a booming economy nd aa

clampdown on VAT fraud.

This year, it was expanded tocover all

children. “It’s completely changed the

situation formany families,” says

Elzbieta Kotermanowicz, a retiree

attending a Law and Justice rally in the

central city of Plock last month. “I travel

a lot in Poland, and when you go to

resorts, especially during the holidays,

you see families who would never have

allowed themselves such a trip if it

wasn’t for this programme.”

The significance of the policy as thatw

it was not just about redistributing cash.

It was also about “redistributing pres-

tige” to those who felt overlooked, as

Ludwik Dorn — once one of Mr Kaczyn-

ski’s closest allies — once put it.

“The first 500+ programme obvi-

ously had an element of [providing]

financial means, of material goods. But

it also had an extremely important

element related to dignity.. .to the

redistribution of social respect by the

state,” he says. “[The message was:

Donald Tusk’s Civic Platform] didn’t

listen to you because they did not

acknowledge and respect you. We do.”

Law and Justice appeals not only to

Poles who feel they lost out, says Agata

Szczesniak, a commentator from

OKO.press, an online news portal, but

also to those who feelthe country’spur-

suit of European integration as left itsh

own traditions and identity in danger of

being erasedby imported values.

“For many years, people in Poland

were trying to be like people from the

west,” she says. “But now I think more

and more feel that it’s OK to say: we are

Poles... we identify with our commu-

nity, with our region... This is some-

thingthe oppositiondoesn’t get.”

Divided opposition

Law and Justice has buttressed its wel-

fare policies with relentless attacks on

LGBT rights, which it portrays as a for-

eign threat to traditional Polish family

values, in much the same way as it iden-

tifiedMuslim refugees as a threatin

2015. “This is an attack on the family,
      and the family is the... foundation of
      Polish civilisation,” Mr Kaczynski told a
      convention in Krosno lastweekend.
      “The journey from civic partnerships
      via gay marriage to the adoption of chil-
      dren, is one [the opposition] will cer-
      tainly take. They will take it, to destroy
      our culture. To destroy what is the basis
      of our life, our existence and our sur-
      vival. Because the family is also the
      basis of our survival, not just in a
      biological sense... but also in a
      cultural sense,” he added.
      The ruling party’sposition has
      been strengthened by theweak-
      ness of the opposition. Law and
      Justicehas recently been hit by a
      string of scandals, ranging from
      the use of government jets
      by a top official’s family
      members, to allegations
      that a deputy justice minis-
      ter was involved in a smear
      campaign against judges
      who criticisedreforms.
      Yet the opposition has
      been unable to capitalise.
      Part of the reason is state
      media’s tireless support for the

together three parties with very

different backgrounds: the SLD, which

dominated Poland in the late 1990s

and early 2000s before being felled

by scandals; Razem, a group set up

in 2015 as a rival to the SLD;

and Wiosna, a party set up

in February by Robert

Biedron, former mayor,a

which quickly imploded

after a disappointing

result in European

elections.

“I think Wiosna

will probably merge

with the SLD. The

question is then

Razem, but at the

moment the co-

operation seems

OK,” says Mr

Luczyn.

Can Law and Justice

retain power?

Voting intention by party ()

Source: Ewbory













    

Law and Justice

Left coalition

Polish People’s party

Confederation

Civic Coalition

Annual change in gross domestic

product ()

-

-

-

-











    

Forecast

Source: IMF

Poland’s long run of growth

lost their jobs as state-owned farms

closed, and state-owned companies

folded in the face of western competi-

tion. Although Poles grew richer,

inequality began to rise.

“A lot of discontent in transition coun-

tries comes from changes in relative

position,” says Ms Javorcik. “And these

changes are often exacerbated by

changes in global trends, globalisation

and technological progress.”

Welfare windfall

Former prime minister Donald Tusk’s

centre-rightCivic Platform —which

ruled Poland from 2007 to 2015 and

forms the backbone of today’s Civic Coa-

lition — saw the country successfully

through the financial crisis and

embarked on a big programme to

improve infrastructure. Yet many Poles,

particularly in rural areas nd in thea

Flying the flag:the national rosary

march in Warsaw last Saturday

included a protest againstrecent

lesbian and gay pride parades in the

country that were condemned by the

ruling Law and Justice party. Below:

Jaroslaw Kaczynski, the party’s

leader and former prime minister

WojtekRadwanski/AFP via Getty

‘Within 30 years the

country moved from

having shortages of

everything to joining the

club of rich countries’

‘Now more and more

people feel that it’s OK to

say: we are Poles...

This is somethingthe

oppositiondoesn’t get’

OCTOBER 10 2019 Section:Features Time: 10/20199/ - 18:20 User:alistair.hayes Page Name:BIG PAGE, Part,Page,Edition:USA , 7, 1