14
We don’t agree on their agenda,” he says. “But we see them
being very influential in this region, through Serbia. We see an
attempt by them to enter into our lives, our domestic issues.”
Albanian activist and party leader Albin Kurti is even more
blunt. “Putin’s idol is Stalin,” he says in his offices on the out-
skirts of Pristina. “He wants to think he has the cunning of
Stalin, and financing new fascist parties across Europe makes
him the biggest danger today.” An official close to President
Thaci describes Russia as “dangerous” in that it prefers the
status quo—that is, preventing Kosovo and Serbia from draw-
ing closer to Europe.
In Belgrade, political observers say Vucic has both
pro-Kremlin and pro-Western officials in his administration
but that he is genuine in wanting closer ties to Europe. They
say the narrative in Kosovo is misplaced: It underplays Vucic’s
desire to engage with the West and overplays Putin’s influence.
Yes, the Serb president has learned to speak Russian and meets
Putin several times a year (Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev
is set to visit Belgrade in October). But the officials say Vucic
must be careful not to pull away too far or too fast from Russia.
Russia offers natural gas at better prices than the U.S. does.
It’s also Serbia’s third-largest trading partner, after Germany
and Italy. The country has supported the Serbs for centuries,
including when the region was united as socialist Yugoslavia.
Both countries are Eastern Orthodox, which deepens the ties.
Boris Yeltsin, who led Russia after the fall of the Soviet Union,
backed Milosevic and condemned the NATO-led bombings.
Belgrade still relies on Russian MiG-29 fighter jets for its air
defense (six stripped-down, used aircraft). Serbia’s army
needs Russian technology for tanks and antiaircraft systems.
Diplomatically, Moscow has Belgrade’s back, saying
Pristina’s actions since its 2008 declaration of independence
have violated Serb sovereignty. This kind of support is part of
the reason opinion polls show Serbs have a generally favor-
able opinion of Russia. Alexander Dynkin, president of the
Institute of World Economy and International Relations, a
state-run think tank in Moscow that advises the Kremlin on
foreign policy, says Serbian voters strongly support Russia,
so Vucic can’t ignore that. Nikita Bondarev, a Balkans expert
at the Russian State University for the Humanities, notes that
Serbia is set to join the Eurasian Economic Union.
Even so, Dynkin, like other analysts in Moscow, insists
“Russian economic involvement in Serbia is not signifi-
cant.” Bondarev warns against conflating Serbia’s traditional
Russophilia “and our real influence.” Indeed, Putin’s failure
to get his way with countries such as North Macedonia shows
the Serbs the limits of his power. Brussels may authorize the
start of formal negotiations—perhaps this month—with North
Macedonia as well as Albania for EU membership.
Some Russians argue that China has greater momentum
in the influence game. The country has become a significant
investor in Serbia, including in infrastructure, mining, and
steel production. Chinese companies construct highways,
bridges, and railways, usually backed by loans from the
Export-Import Bank of China. Belgrade puts the figure at$8.2 billion, including some projects still in the pipeline.
China tends not to insert itself into conflicts. It does busi-
ness with democracies and dictatorships alike. But its invest-
ments often carry a broader goal: to further Beijing’s political
interests by cultivating influence with states that will then advo-
cate for it. That includes international forums such as the EU,
World Trade Organization, and United Nations. Beijing says
it supports Serbia’s territorial integrity and hopes Belgrade
and Pristina can come to a solution through dialogue. At the
same time, China would be uneasy about the prospect of an
expanded NATO in the area. “China’s position on Kosovo is
clear,” says Gao Zhikai, a former diplomat and interpreter for
ex-Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping. “For the foreseeable future,
China will keep the status quo. It has seen many overtures from
Kosovo but will not recognize it.”
The U.S. role in the region is increasingly uncertain, even
after the recent appointment of Matthew Palmer as spe-
cial U.S. envoy for the Western Balkans. For now officials in
Pristina say U.S. diplomats on the ground invariably express
support. But they say the combination of a Department of
State that’s cycled through a number of chiefs and the presi-
dent’s distracting interventions creates the risk of inconsistent
policy out of Washington. A State Department spokesperson
says the U.S. expects Kosovo’s new leadership to suspend the
tariffs on Serbia (calling them an obstacle to talks) and be pre-
pared to engage with Belgrade.
In the Kosovo episode of the Balkan wars, more than 1 mil-
lion people were displaced and up to 13,000 killed. The coun-
try’s ethnic divisions remain. Just a 15-minute drive out of
Pristina is a small Serbian enclave built around an ortho-
dox church. An official proudly emphasizes the area’s role
in Serbian history, saying that services have run consistently
for 700 years despite the myriad conflicts. Locals gather for
a service as evening falls. They’re mostly elderly, and they
speak sadly of the young people who’ve left.
Clutching at a shawl covering her hair and walking toward
the church, one woman repeatedly beseeches the visitors to
say hello to a granddaughter called Sanja, who works on a
ship somewhere in Australia. A local official says Serbs feel
increasingly squeezed and unwelcome. He says Pristina—a
city of about 200,000—has fewer than 20 Serbs left. They
cluster ever more tightly together. Eventually, given the
departure of younger Serbs, there will be none, he says.
At the cafe in Pristina, one of the young women—well-
traveled and from a well-connected family—remembers, in
the years before Kosovo broke away, having to be schooled
at home when the local government, under instructions
from Belgrade, banned anything but the Serbian curriculum.
Nowadays, she says, she chats often with her Serb neighbors.
She insists that the conversations are perfectly civil and com-
monplace. When pressed, she concedes that there’s an under-
current to even the most mundane exchanges. Although the
war was 20 years ago, she says, “there is always something awk-
ward in the air.” <BW> �With Misha Savic, Ilya Arkhipov, Stepan
Kravchenko, Peter Martin, and Nick Wadhams◼ REMARKS Bloomberg Businessweek October 7, 2019