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offense, he’s also taken a few careful steps to insu-
late his caucus against a possible reversal. “If this
is the ‘launching point’ for House Democrats’
impeachment process,” he said in a statement to
Politico, “they’ve already overplayed their hand.”
But he also told CNBC he’d have “no choice” under
Senate rules but to take up impeachment articles
and stopped short of blessing Trump’s conduct. In
recent weeks he’s ordered a bipartisan Senate intel-
ligence investigation, backed a resolution written by
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer demanding
that the administration turn over the then-secret
whistleblower report, and announced he’d been
privately pushing the administration to release aid
to Ukraine that had been held up before Trump’s
phone call with that country’s president.
While no Senate Republican has yet said Trump
should be impeached over Ukraine, what they
have said suggests he might not have a solid wall
behind him if damaging information continues to
come out. Trump’s sometime rival Mitt Romney
of Utah has called the president’s actions “trou-
bling in the extreme.” Nebraska’s Ben Sasse, who
criticized Trump as a candidate but has fallen in
line since, said his colleagues shouldn’t rush to
“circle the wagons” around the president. And
Senate Intelligence Chairman Richard Burr of
North Carolina has vowed to “get to the bottom”
of what happened.
It would likely take a collapse in support for
Trump among Republican voters to change GOP
senators’ calculus. While polls show increasing
approval among the public for impeachment, it’s
come mostly from Democrats. The president’s
approval rating among GOP voters remains above
80% in public polls, making any Republican sena-
tor’s defection a potentially career-ending decision.
The administration is counting on Republicansto toe the party line. Before it released a rough tran-
script of Trump’s call with the president of Ukraine,
the White House summoned a group of Republican
lawmakers for a strategy briefing. Anyone who
might have been considering breaking ranks
wouldn’t have had to look further than former
Senators Jeff Flake of Arizona and Bob Corker of
Tennessee to see the consequences: Both decided
to retire last year rather than run for reelection
after their dust-ups with Trump sent their poll
numbers plummeting.
Having to cast a vote in an impeachment trial
would put some swing-state Republicans, such
as Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania and Rob Portman
of Ohio, on the spot. Toomey and Portman have
sought to split the difference, criticizing the pres-
ident but suggesting his actions don’t warrant
removal from office. GOP Senators Cory Gardner
(Colorado), Martha McSally (Arizona), Joni Ernst
(Iowa), and Thom Tillis (North Carolina), all up for
reelection in battleground states, have accused the
House of overreaching.
Others, including Susan Collins of Maine, have
started telling reporters they don’t want to com-
ment on the impeachment question because they
might end up serving as de facto jurors, a line that
conveniently keeps them out of the daily political
fray. Collins has yet to say whether she’s running
next year, but she could face the toughest fight of
her career if she did, having to court voters in a
state that went for Hillary Clinton in 2016. Many
Democrats who have voted for Collins in the past
are angry over her support for Trump’s agenda and
her vote to confirm Supreme Court Justice Brett
Kavanaugh, causing her approval ratings to tumble.
By contrast, an impeachment fight could ben-
efit McConnell—who is himself running for reelec-
tion next year—given that Trump won his state, POLITICS Bloomberg Businessweek October 7, 2019○ MITCH McCONNELL
Kentucky
The Senate majority
leader is up for
reelection in a state that
loves Trump.○ MITT ROMNEY
Utah
One of Trump’s frequent
critics within the party,
Romney also has a
major national platform.○ MARTHA McSALLY
Arizona
Appointed to fill John
McCain’s seat, McSally
faces voters next year in
a state she lost in 2018.○ BEN SASSE
Nebraska
Sasse, who has tried
to position himself as
Congress’s moral voice,
said the party shouldn’t
rush to defend Trump.○ CORY GARDNER
Colorado
He’s one of the most
vulnerable Republicans
running for reelection
in 2020, in a state Hillary
Clinton won easily.○ SUSAN COLLINS
Maine
Seen as a crucial swing
vote, Collins is vulnerable
on both the left and the
right in her state.Six Republicans Trump Should Keep Close
His fate could hinge on these senators○ Republican senators
who voted against
Trump’s emergency
border directive12