A8 EZ SU T H E W A S H I N G T O N P O S T.S A T U R D A Y, O C T O B E R 5 , 2 0 1 9
tics-weary Virginians, he said.
Legislative races are particu-
larly hard to predict because fac-
tors are so different in various
regions of the state. Democrats
lead by a wide margin of 42 points
in the inner D.C. suburbs, but in
the more competitive Northern
Virginia exurbs, Republicans are
up by 12 percentage points. Dem-
ocrats fare well in the Tidewater
region, while Republicans have
small edges in central/western
Virginia and the Richmond/east-
ern parts of the state.
The issue of abortion, which
Republicans had hoped would
work in their favor this year after
an uproar over a late-term abor-
tion bill brought by Democrats in
the last General Assembly ses-
sion, appears to have gained little
traction. Fewer than half of Vir-
ginia voters — 46 percent — say
the issue is very important in
casting their vote, and that group
splits almost evenly between fa-
voring Democrats and Republi-
cans.
Education comes in just after
guns as a top concern for voters,
with 70 percent saying it is very
important, followed by health
care at 66 percent and the econo-
my at 63 percent.
Democrats lead by more than
20 percentage points among vot-
ers focused on education and
health care. Voters focused on
other issues split roughly even in
their partisan support for Vir-
ginia’s legislature.
The poll suggests gun policy is
a more prominent issue for Vir-
ginia voters this year than it was
in last year’s U.S. Senate race. In
2018, according to a survey of
Virginia voters by the Associated
Press and Fox News, 9 percent of
Virginia voters said “gun policy”
was the most important issue fac-
ing the country. That ranked be-
low health care (27 percent), im-
migration (22 percent), and the
economy and jobs (19 percent). It
also ranked about even with the
environment (8 percent) and for-
eign policy (6 percent). Among
the 9 percent who said gun policy
was the most important issue,
almost 9 in 10 voted to reelect Sen.
Tim Kaine (D-Va.).
The Post-Schar School poll
shows gun ownership is a persis-
tently sharp dividing line. Nearly
half of Virginians live in house-
holds with a gun, and this group
favors Republicans by 16 points
over Democrats in elections this
fall. Democrats lead by 43 points
among voters that have no guns in
their household.
“I have a couple of guns myself,
but I don’t think that anybody
needs an assault weapon,” said
Linda Leidy, 62, a retired social
worker who lives near Williams-
burg and plans to vote for Demo-
crats in November. She supports
universal background checks,
limits on magazine size and a ban
on assault weapons.
Leidy noted the two-year anni-
versary of a shooting that left 58
people dead after a music festival
on the Las Vegas Strip, in which
the shooter had 23 assault-style
weapons. “Those people didn’t
have a chance,” she said.
Overall, 58 percent of Virginia
adults favor stricter gun laws in
the state. That is roughly similar
to the share of Virginians who
favored stricter gun control laws
in Post polls from 2007-2016.
There is broad support among
Virginians for expanded back-
ground checks (88 percent) and
“red flag” laws (82 percent) that
allow authorities to temporarily
seize weapons from someone who
has been deemed a threat.
That support cuts across party
lines — 95 percent of Democrats,
89 percent of independents and
81 percent of Republicans sup-
port expanded background
checks; 94 percent of Democrats,
81 percent of independents and
72 percent of Republicans sup-
port red flag laws.
Scott Smith, an insurance
agent and gun owner who lives in
a rural area on the outskirts of
Spotsylvania, has mixed feelings
about gun policy. He opposes a
ban on assault weapons, but he
supports expanded background
checks, a red flag law and a rein-
statement of a one-per-month cap
on handgun purchases.
“I would like to see somebody
do something, but then again, I
don’t want to see them over-
reach,” said Smith, 65, a political
independent who said he hasn’t
decided how he’ll vote.
The Washington Post-Schar
School poll was conducted Sept.
25-30 among a random sample of
876 Virginia adults, including 55
percent reached on cellphones
and 45 percent on landlines. The
margin of sampling error is plus
or minus five percentage points
for the overall sample as well as
for the sample of 814 registered
voters.
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]Emily Guskin contributed to this
report.finds that nearly 6 in 10 registered
voters say they are certain to vote,
which is on par with interest in
Virginia’s 2017 gubernatorial elec-
tion two years ago, when turnout
was 48 percent.
History suggests turnout is un-
likely to reach that level, but the
poll hints that it could be signifi-
cantly higher than in the last
off-off year election in 2015, when
29 percent of registered voters
went to the polls, according to the
Virginia Department of Elections.
“Turnout is the key factor,” said
Mark Rozell, dean of the Schar
School of Policy and Government
at George Mason University. “So
many things seem to be pointing
in a Democratic direction, but...
Republicans have always done a
little bit better in these off-off year
elections in getting their voters to
show up.”
The distraction of the national
presidential campaigns and on-
going drama in Washington
threatens to divert energy and
attention from local races for poli-say their view of Northam is “very
important” to their vote, and Re-
publicans lead by 14 percentage
points among those voters.
President Trump is an even
bigger factor, however, cited as
“very important” to their vote by
51 percent. That is up from 38 per-
cent who said he was an impor-
tant motivator in 2017, when anti-
Trump Democrats and indepen-
dents turned out in massive num-
bers and flipped a record number
of Republican seats in the House
of Delegates.
Trump’s approval rating
among Virginia residents is at
39 percent, with 58 percent disap-
proving of his job performance.
But voters who say Trump is high-
ly important in their vote split
nearly evenly between supporting
Democratic and Republican can-
didates for the state legislature,
48 percent to 45 percent.
In an “off-off ” year election
with no statewide or federal races
atop the ticket, turnout is tradi-
tionally very low. But the polltaking guns away from people
deemed a danger is a good idea.
He not only supports background
checks for all gun purchases but
would like to see checks expanded
to include social media posts that
might offer insight into the per-
son’s state of mind.
But the retired Philip Morris
employee who lives in rural
Prince George County intends to
vote for Republicans, even though
GOP leaders have quashed such
bills. He fears Democrats would
move on to measures he considers
extreme.
“What makes a lot of gun own-
ers leery is that, okay, you’re going
to do that and... it just goes on
and on and never quits,” Hunter,
70, said. “You open Pandora’s box.”
In the aftermath of the Virginia
Beach shooting, Gov. Ralph
Northam (D) convened a special
legislative session to take up gun
control, but Republicans shut it
down without considering a sin-
gle bill. They referred the legisla-
tion to a commission for study.
That elevated guns even higher as
a campaign issue, with Demo-
crats pledging action if they win
the majority and Republicans
warning gun supporters about
the same.
National gun-control groups
have given millions to Democrats
— one group alone, Everytown for
Gun Safety Action Fund, pledged
$2.5 million — while the National
Rifle Association gave $200,
to Republicans, the largest single
donation it has ever made in Vir-
ginia.
The Post-Schar School poll
finds that less than half of Vir-
ginia voters are paying close at-
tention to the campaigns. Overall,
Virginia registered voters nar-
rowly prefer Democrats over Re-
publicans, 49 percent to 42 per-
cent. That edge widens slightly
among those who say they are
certain to vote, who prefer Demo-
crats 52 percent to 41 percent.
Democrats’ overall advantage
suggests the statewide mood con-
tinues to favor them, but control
of those chambers will ultimately
be decided in a handful of com-
petitive state House and Senate
races.
Many Virginians seem to have
shrugged off the scandals that
engulfed the state’s top Demo-
crats earlier this year, when
Northam and Attorney General
Mark R. Herring admitted to
blackface incidents in the 1980s
and Lt. Gov. Justin Fairfax denied
claims by two women that he
sexually assaulted them in the
early 2000s. Northam’s approval
rating stands at 47 percent, with
29 percent disapproving. Almost
a quarter of Virginians have no
opinion on his job performance.
That’s a marked improvement
from Northam’s numbers in Feb-
ruary shortly after the scandals
broke, when another Washington
Post-Schar School poll found vot-
ers split about evenly, with
43 percent approving and 44 per-
cent disapproving.
While not devastating to his
party, Northam is clearly some-
what of a drag on the Democrats.
A 55 percent majority of Vir-
ginians say they are bothered by
his handling of the scandal or the
blackface incident itself, in which
he first took responsibility for a
racist photo on his 1984 medical
school yearbook page, then de-
nied being involved but admitted
to darkening his face for a dance
contest later that year.
Nearly 3 in 10 Virginia votersPOLL FROM AIn Va. poll, positive signs for Democrats
BY LAURA VOZZELLA,
GREGORY S. SCHNEIDER
AND EMILY GUSKINrichmond — Gov. Ralph
Northam’s approval rating has
inched up and disapproval has
dipped sharply since February,
when fellow Democrats in Vir-
ginia and across the country
demanded his ouster over a
blackface scandal, according to a
new Washington Post-Schar
School poll.
But less than half of Virginia
voters say Northam (D) and two
scandal-marred Democrats hop-
ing to succeed him — Lt. Gov.
Justin Fairfax and Attorney Gen-
eral Mark R. Herring — should
seek office again in Virginia.
Only Herring has more support-
ers than opponents.
Just under half of Virginians
like the job Northam is doing as
governor, with 47 percent ap-
proving and 29 percent disap-
proving. Those are better marks
than the 43 percent-44 percent
approval-disapproval split he re-
ceived in February, after a racist
photo from his 1984 medical
school yearbook surfaced.
“Northam seems to have solid-
ified his support since the scan-
dal broke in February. He has not
seen a decline — he’s actually
seen a little bit of movement up,”
said Mark J. Rozell, dean of the
Schar School of Policy and Gov-
ernment at George Mason Uni-
versity, which conducted the sur-
vey in partnership with The Post.
“It seems like people are looking
well past those scandals with
regard to the governor, though I
think he is still bruised from it.”
Fairfax and Herring also re-
ceive positive approval marks,
albeit far from majorities, for
how they’ve handled their jobs.
Asked about Fairfax, 39 percent
approve while 25 percent disap-
prove; the rest have no opinion.
Herring stands at 42 percent job
approval, while 19 percent disap-
prove and about 2 in 10 have no
opinion.
Northam’s scandal was the
first to rip through Virginia’s
executive branch within the span
of a week early this year. Herring,
who initially called on Northam
to step down, admitted a few
days later to his own youthful
blackface incident as a college
freshman in 1980. And two wom-
en accused Fairfax of sexually
assaulting them in separate inci-
dents in the early 2000s, allega-
tions he has denied.
Northam initially apologized
for the yearbook picture but
disavowed it the next day, al-
though he admitted that he’d put
shoe polish on his cheeks to
imitate Michael Jackson in a
dance contest that same year.
The about-face only intensi-
fied calls for his resignation, but
Northam vowed to stay put and
devote the rest of his term to
rectifying racial inequities. Eight
months later, 55 percent of Vir-
ginians remain bothered by the
photo or Northam’s response to
it, with 33 percent saying they
are “very bothered.”
The Post-Schar School poll
finds the same share of whites
and African Americans (55 per-
cent) say they are bothered. But
65 percent of college-educated
whites say they’re bothered,
compared with 49 percent of
whites without college degrees.
Strikingly, there is little parti-
san divide on this question, with
59 percent of Democrats saying
they are bothered, along with
51 percent of Republicans and
57 percent of independents.
Women are more likely than men
to say they are bothered, 60 per-
cent to 50 percent, but they are
about equally likely to say they’re
“very bothered.”
Age is a bigger factor in re-
sponse to Northam’s scandal.
Virginians under 40 are the most
likely to be bothered, followed by
those between 40 and 64 years
old while those 65 and older are
the least likely to be disturbed.
Despite those lingering con-
cerns, 7 in 10 Democrats approve
of the job Northam is doing,
suggesting the scandal might not
depress Democratic turnout in
critical November elections. All
140 seats in the state House and
Senate are on the ballot, with
Republicans defending razor-
thin majorities in both cham-
bers.
Northam’s image is far weaker
outside his own party. About 4 in
10 independents and 3 in 10
Republicans approve of the gov-
ernor. A slim majority (55 per-
cent) of African Americans ap-
prove, compared with 44 percent
of white Virginians.
For a sizable chunk of the
electorate, the governor who
drew international headlines
last winter has reverted by fall to
the low-key Eastern Shore physi-
cian who attracted scant atten-
tion when he was a state senator
and lieutenant governor. Almost
a quarter have no opinion at all
on Northam’s performance.
Fewer than 3 in 10 registered
voters say their view of Northam
is “very important” in deciding
their vote for the legislature. Of
those voters, 52 percent current-
ly support Republicans and
38 percent back Democrats.
Kim VanHuss of Richmond
said she was bothered by the
picture on Northam’s medical
school yearbook page, which
showed one person in blackface
and another in a Ku Klux Klan
robe and hood, apparently taken
at a costume party. As a white
child growing up in Georgia,
VanHuss said the Klan burned a
cross on her front yard because
her father had befriended a fel-
low pharmacist who was black.
She was especially put off by a
picture that made light of the
Klan, as well as by Northam’s
unsteady response to the scan-
dal.
“I remain bothered about the
fact that he can’t remember
exactly what happened,” said
VanHuss, an accountant and po-
litical independent who is not
sure how she will vote in Novem-
ber. Even so, VanHuss said her
feelings about the episode will
not affect her choice for delegate
and state senator.
Al Enoch, on the other hand,
will head to the polls with Demo-
cratic scandals in mind. The
building maintenance worker
from Norfolk fumes that Demo-
crats “crucified” U.S. Supreme
Court Justice Brett M. Ka-
vanaugh over a decades-old sex-
ual assault allegation but are
letting Northam, Fairfax and
Herring off the hook.
When Democrats “get caught
with their pants down, it’s ‘Oh,
well, he didn’t mean it,’ ” said
Enoch, 67. He said he is “abso-
lutely voting Republican in the
fall because of that.”
Northam cannot seek reelec-
tion in 2021 because the stateconstitution prohibits governors
from serving back-to-back terms,
but he could run again after a
break. Fairfax and Herring both
intended to run for governor
before the scandals erupted, and
they haven’t ruled out doing so in
the aftermath.
None of the three muster ma-
jority support from voters, who
were asked if any of them should
seek elected office again. For
Northam, 39 percent say he
should run again and 43 percent
say he should not, while the rest
have no opinion. For Fairfax,
36 percent favored another run
while 33 percent opposed one.
And for Herring, 40 percent said
he should run again and 26 per-
cent said he should not, while
one-third offered no opinion on
his future candidacy.
“Those numbers are not terri-
bly encouraging,” said Rozell,
who noted the somewhat stron-
ger support for the attorney
general.
All three have more support
than Robert F. McDonnell, the
last statewide officeholder en-
gulfed in scandal. McDonnell, a
Republican who served as gover-
nor from 2010 to 2014, was
convicted of corruption related
to luxury gifts and loans he
accepted from a Richmond busi-
nessman. The U.S. Supreme
Court threw out his conviction in
2016, but a Post poll after the
ruling found two-thirds opposed
his running for public office
again.
The Washington Post-Schar
School poll was conducted
Sept. 25-30 among a random
sample of 876 Virginia adults,
55 percent reached on cellphones
and 45 percent on landlines. The
margin of sampling error is plus
or minus five percentage points
for the overall sample as well as
for the sample of 814 registered
voters.
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]Scott Clement contributed to this
report.Poll: Northam’s image
recovers post-scandal
P O LL Washington Post-Schar School poll
Source: Sept. 25-30, Washington Post-Schar School poll among 876 adults
in the Commonwealth of Virginia with an error margin of +/- 5 percentage points.
ADRIAN BLANCO/THE WASHINGTON POSTNote: Full question wording at wapo.st/pollarchiveVirginians across party lines support expanded
background checks and ‘red flag’ lawsPercent of Virginia adults who support each policyUniversal gun background checksAllowing police to remove guns from people a judge finds dangerousState limit of one handgun purchase per monthStatewide ban on the sale of assault weaponsStatewide ban on high-capacity ammunition clipsVirginia adults Democrats Independents Republicans
88%8258575695%9479807789%8155565781%72393730Republicans42%44%34314747484552 ree-quarters of Virginia voters say gun policy is very
important in 2019 voteQ: For each item I name, please tell me how important it will be in your
vote for the Virginia legislature this year... (Among registered voters)Percent saying
issue is
"very important"
DemocratsGun policyEducationHealth care e economyImmigrationAbortionTrumpNorthamAmong those who say each is very
important, percent who support...47%5660434547483875%70666352465128All registered voters49%Source: Sept. 25-30, Washington Post-Schar School poll among 814 registered Virginia
voters with an error margin of +/- 5 percentage points.But Virginia’s governor
has little support for
seeking another officeJAHI CHIKWENDIU/THE WASHINGTON POST
Del. Hala S. Ayala (D-Prince William), who is running for reelection, addresses gun-control advocates
protesting in September at the National Rifle Association’s headquarters in Northern Virginia.“It seems like people are
looking well past those
scandals with regard to
the governor, though I
think he is still bruised
from it.”
Mark J. Rozell, dean of George
Mason University’s Schar School of
Policy and Government“What makes a lot of gun owners leery is that, okay, you’re going to do that
and... it just goes on and on and never quits. You open Pandora’s box.”
Steve Hunter, a Virginia resident who supports gun-control measures but plans to vote
Republican because he says Democrats would take such ideas to the extreme