WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 18 , 2019. THE WASHINGTON POST EZ RE A21
President Trump
is counting on a
strong e conomy t o
propel him t o
reelection i n 2020,
but h is signature
issue now l ooks dicey. The
economy i s slowing d own.
Manufacturing is in a recession,
bankruptcies a re rising in f arm
country, a nd t he trade war is
starting t o bite businesses and
consumers.
Democratic presidential
hopefuls are openly attacking
Trump on t he economy,
something t hat seemed almost
inconceivable a few m onths ago.
But t hey have yet to find a zinger
as effective as what t hey used
during last year’s m idterm
elections, w hen Democrats
characterized the GOP t ax cut as
tilted heavily toward the rich.
It’s c lear Trump w ill have
problems if the economy dives
into a recession before Election
Day. A ny p resident would
struggle in t hose circumstances
— j ust ask George H.W. B ush, w ho
faced an ill-timed recession in the
middle o f his term a nd f ailed to
win r eelection. But a recession is
not t he most likely outcome in
2020, according to most
economists.
Most f orecasters predict a
trickier situation: The U.S.
economy i s likely t o slow f rom
nearly 3 percent growth l ast year
to about 1 .5 to 2 percent growth i n
2020, which i s about t he s ame
pace as at t he e nd o f the Obama
administration. It w ill be even
harder f or Trump to k eep
claiming the economy is the
“greatest in history” w hen it’s
growing at a pace he u sed to slam
as weak and “broken.”
“The White House is t hinking a
lot about June of 2020. If growth
deteriorates below 1.8 or 1.9
percent, Trump is v ulnerable
because it looks worse than
Obama,” s aid Doug Holtz-Eakin,
president of t he American Action
Forum a nd a former top
economic a dviser to Republican
Sen. John McCain’s p residential
team in 2 008. “That is the
concern, b ut we aren’t t here right
now.”
If the e lection w ere h eld today,
Trump would be a ble to campaign
on stocks n ear record highs,
unemployment a t a near-50-year
low, abundant job openings a nd
rising wages. While the n ation
has p ockets of p ain, especially i n
some blue-collar s teel and
manufacturing communities that
Trump promised to revive,
experts say the e conomy remains
pretty healthy a nd c onsumer
confidence is high.
The problem for Trump is that
the e conomic outlook i s cloudier.
U.S. b usinesses have pulled b ack
on spending as they worry about
no end in sight to Trump’s t rade
war. Business leaders s ay Trump’s
unpredictable behavior — s uch as
threatening to close the U.S.
border w ith Mexico — l eaves
them on edge and makes it nearly
impossible to plan for the f uture.
The big fear is that c ompanies
have already a xed s pending a nd
their next m ove c ould be axing
employees. L ayoffs and stock
market drops have historically
triggered consumers to close t heir
wallets. O nce t hat happens, t he
economy c an head south quickly,
because 70 percent of t he
economy c omes from consumer
spending.
“Trump s hould do well o n the
economy, but he i s his own worst
enemy in t erms of g enerating
uncertainty,” s aid Greg Valliere,chief U.S. strategist at A GF
Investments and author o f a
morning newsletter on p olitics
and t he e conomy.
Democrats hear g rowing
frustration w ith Trump’s t rade
policies. While Americans largely
agree with Trump t hat the United
States n eeds t o push C hina to be a
better trading p artner, o nly 35
percent of adults a pprove of
Trump’s h andling of trade
negotiations with China,
according to a Washington Post-
ABC News poll taken this month.
Fifty-six p ercent of A merican
adults disapprove.
“The president c learly has n o
strategy,” s aid Pete Buttigieg, the
mayor of South Bend, Ind., i n the
most recent Democratic
presidential d ebate. “I’d l ike to
see h im m aking a deal with
[Chinese President] Xi Jinping. Is
it just me, o r was that supposed to
happen i n, like, April?”Strategists s ay t he more t hat
Democrats can hold up trade as
another example o f Trump’s
unpredictable — a nd
economically harmful —
behavior, t he m ore t heir a ttacks
will likely r esonate.
“This election w ill b e about o ne
of two things: Issues like the
economy w here Trump w ill likely
do well, or Trump himself, where
he p robably won’t do well,”
Valliere said.
But m any experts also p ointed
out t hat while B uttigieg landed a
catchy line on trade, few if a ny o f
the D emocratic candidates
articulated a clear strategy on
how to deal with China. Some
even said t hey would keep
Trump’s t ariffs in p lace i f they
won t he election.
“Some of t hese answers a re a
little word-saladish on china andtrade, like just throw a bunch o f
words out t here t hat are generally
in the issue area,” tweeted Jen
Psaki, f ormer White House
communications director for
President Barack O bama.
For his part, Trump h as been
sharpening his counterpunches
on the economy. In a ddition to his
oft-used lines about how great the
economy i s, he is i ncreasingly
telling voters that economic
doomsday will come if a
Democrat w ins.
“The Trump E conomy i s
setting records, and has a long
way up to go....However, if a nyone
but m e takes over in 2020 (I k now
the c ompetition very well), t here
will be a Market C rash the likes of
which h as not been seen b efore!”
Trump tweeted i n June.
He r olled out that line again a t
a rally in New Hampshire in mid-August.
Trump has also s et u p Federal
Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell
to blame if the economy f alters
next year, a lthough f ew
Americans k now who Powell is.
Democratic strategists and
economists s ay t hey are l ooking
for a line of a ttack similar to the
highly s uccessful one in the 2 018
midterm elections that cast the
GOP t ax cut as a giveaway to the
rich.
“Democrats absolutely can
make the c ase that on things t hat
are critical to people’s e conomic
lives — c ollege tuition, child-care
issues a nd health care — Trump is
not o nly doing nothing b ut
working a gainst t hem,” s aid Gene
Sperling, director o f the National
Economic Council under O bama
and President Bill Clinton.
[email protected]Before 2020, Tr ump is handing Democrats an opening on economy
JABIN BOTSFORD/THE WASHINGTON POST
President Trump has been sharpening his counterpunches on the economy, portending economic doom in tweets and rally speeches if a Democrat beats him.BY SEAN SULLIVAN
AND DAVID WEIGEL
philadelphia — Former vice
president Joe Biden and Sen. Ber-
nie S anders (I-Vt.) clashed sharply
over health care in separate ap-
pearances before union members
on Tuesday, i ntensifying o ne of the
central policy disputes in the
Democratic presidential r ace.
Speaking at a forum hosted by
the Philadelphia Council of the
AFL-CIO, Biden touted his plan to
expand the Affordable Care Act
with an optional public insurance
program. Without naming Sand-
ers and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-
Mass.), he eagerly criticized the
competing proposal they have
championed as injurious to orga-
nized labor.
“I have a significant health care
plan. But guess what? Under
mine, you can keep your health
insurance you’ve bargained for if
you like it,” Biden said. “If you
don’t, you can move it, a nd y ou can
buy i nto a public plan.”
Sanders promoted his Medi-
care-for-all proposal, under which
the government would be the sole
insurer for all Americans. And he
highlighted an ongoing labor dis-
pute in which health-care costs
have been shifted onto the union
backing s triking workers.
The collision showed how h eav-
ily health care is f actoring into the
crucial fall stretch of the race,
which polls show has at least tem-
porarily become a three-way com-
petition between Biden, Warren
and S anders.
In delivering their remarks be-
fore a union audience, Biden and
Sanders took their cases directly
to the w orking-class voters expect-
ed to play a significant role in the
nomination contest.
The former vice president told
the crowd, “You’ve broken your
neck to get” y our health-care plans
and “you’ve given up wages to get
it.” He added: “You should be enti-
tled to keep it. And no plan should
take it away f rom you i f that’s w hat
you decide.”
Biden’s remarks came on the
same day that a standoff between
the U nited A uto Workers a nd Gen-
eral Motors escalated, with GM
shifting health-care costs onto
striking workers. Later, when
Sanders spoke, he brought this up.
“That’s the kind of ugliness and
greed that we are seeing every
day,” Sanders said, prompting
boos about G M’s conduct from the
crowd. Sanders, who recently
changed how his Medicare-for-all
plan would protect union workers
— g iving them m ore leverage amid
concerns from some in organized
labor about his plan — d efended it
as the best path to achieve com-
plete c overage f or Americans.
Addressing reporters after-
ward, Sanders argued that under
his plan, the situation with GM
would be averted.
“Here you have the situation
where the UAW is now on strike,
49,000 workers. I’m sure that in
that 49,000, there are family
members who are seriously ill,” he
said. “Under Medicare-for-all,
whether you’re working, whether
you’re not working, whether you
go from one job to another job, it’s
right there with you.”
Sara Nelson, the influential
president of the Association of
Flight Attendants, an AFL-CIO
union, appeared to warn Biden
over his comments on Twitter. “A
note to anyone who wants to use
union members as a wedge to op-
pose #MedicareForAll: @UAW
has one of the best plans in the
country, b ut management can still
use it to hold workers hostage.
#M4A puts power back in our
hands,” s he wrote.
Several of t he unions represent-
ed at the forum also belonged to
affiliates that have endorsed some
form of single-payer health care.
Blossom Kaleo, 41, a part-time
teacher and member of the Phila-
delphia Federation of Te achers,
said it w as wrong to say that u nion
members were afraid to replace
their current coverage with a uni-
versal plan. The American Federa-
tion of Te achers has s upported the
Sanders bill. “I can’t even afford
what our union offers,” K aleo said.
“I’m for Medicare-for-all because
it’s a human right.”
Concluding his remarks at the
end of a question-and-answer ses-
sion Tuesday, Biden argued that
it’s not necessary to remove exist-
ing laws to make progress, empha-
sizing one o f the core t hemes of his
campaign.
“You don’t have to do it by tak-
ing down and ripping away every-
thing that’s been in place before.
That’s n ot necessary,” B iden said.
The Democratic candidates are
making more explicit appeals to
union workers than in past cam-
paigns, as the focus on working-
class voters has sharpened in theparty after President Trump in
2016 b enefited f rom the s upport of
many o f them.
Democratic activists felt the
party d id not speak to union work-
ers’ economic and s ocial c oncerns.
Attempts to correct that h ave been
evident in many of the platforms
the c andidates h ave embraced.
Biden and Sanders, the only
candidates who have won en-
dorsements from national unions
this year, have sought to portray
themselves as champions of work-
ers. Warren, who on Monday won
the endorsement of the Working
Families Party, also has under-
scored support for measures ben-
efiting working class Americans.
But most large unions are in no
rush to pick sides in the crowded
and fluid race. For the moment,
there does not appear to be a
consensus candidate in the labor
community. Four years ago was
different, as organized groups
largely lined up behind Hillary
Clinton.
For Sanders, the appearance
here marked his first campaign
stop since Sunday. With a voice
that was noticeably raspy at last
Thursday’s debate, Sanders can-
celed most of his Monday and
Tuesday schedule to rest his vocal
cords, his campaign said. The Ver-
mont senator returned to the trail
facing some new challenges and
turmoil. Warren’s Working Fami-
lies Party endorsement was a blow
to Sanders, who won the group’s
support i n the 2 016 campaign.
Sanders also shook up his cam-
paign in New Hampshire, a state
where he defeated Clinton by a
wide margin in 2016 but faces a
more competitive race this time.
His campaign replaced its New
Hampshire state director, Joe Cai-
azzo, with Shannon Jackson, who
managed Sanders’s 2018 Senate
reelection effort. The campaign
announced the move to support-
ers o n Sunday.
Tuesday’s event was the first
presidential s ummit hosted by the
Philadelphia Council AFL-CIO,
which includes more than 100 lo-
cal unions that represent nearly
200,000 workers. In addition to
Biden and Sanders, New York
Mayor Bill de Blasio, tech entre-
preneur Andrew Yang, Sen. Amy
Klobuchar (D-Minn.) and billion-
aire activist To m Steyer also field-
ed questions here.
[email protected]
[email protected]Biden, Sanders clash over health care at forum
Heather
Long
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