40 AMERICAN SPYseparate fact and analysis from his own personal opinion. He knew his job,
and he performed like a pro. He was an invaluable agent and source of
intelligence for the CIA. Our policy makers were fortunate to have access
to his information and analysis, which, in theory, should have guided them
to making enlightened policy decisions.
The most pressing scenario for discussion in Athens was to predict as best
we could how events would unfold in the various republics in light of clear
American insistence on recognizing only a single, unified Yugoslavia. Slovenia
made a clean break, but that was not surprising since there were few ethnic
Serbs in Slovenia, and President Slobodan Milošević was not going to expend
too much treasure, blood, or effort to keep Slovenia in the Yugoslav fold.
Croatia was another story, and everyone expected that war to be bloody
and violent. Sadly, our expectations were regularly met or exceeded until
that war ended four years later.
But in the summer of 1991, Bosnia was not really on anyone’s radar,
except for those of us paid to steal secrets and look into the future in Yugo-
slavia. Many people were familiar with Sarajevo—it had hosted the 1984
Winter Olympics. Those who lived in Yugoslavia viewed Sarajevo as a
charming, multicultural city on the top of everyone’s weekend getaway list.
But most of the world (including most of the US government) knew little
to nothing about Bosnia or how it fit into the scheme of things in volatile
Yugoslavia. They were about to find out.
After our meetings concluded, flights from Athens to and over Yugo-
slavia were canceled for two days because of the war and threat to civil
aviation. I was unable to return to Frankfurt prior to resuming my Belgrade
TDY. I took advantage of this forced delay by relaxing at the Astir Palace
Hotel in Vouliagmeni, on the “Athens Riviera” just south of the capital. I
felt as if I’d won the lottery. The anonymity and freedom from surveillance
along with the peaceful seaside setting were refreshing and rejuvenating.
My handful of stress-free days on the Aegean Sea provided a much-needed
calm before the storm.
When I finally made it back to Belgrade, I sat down in the station’s
tiny, cramped, windowless office to write my forecast of what we could
likely expect in Yugoslavia in the coming months and years. These occa-
sional “think pieces” reflecting a station’s candid war zone analysis were
called Aardwolfs and were different from typical nuts-and-bolts intelligence