14 | POLITICO | THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 19, 2019
For mer T r u mp ca mpa ig n
manager Corey Lewandowski on
Wednesday teased that he is “very,
very close” to announcing wheth-
er he will run for Senate in New
Hampshire and previewed that an
official announcement could come
as early as next month.
“I wanted to get through yester-
day before I made the final decision.
I’m very, very close to announcing
my decision on the U.S. Senate
race,” Lewandowski said on “Fox
& Friends.”
“This is the No. 1-rated television
show in America right now, and if I
was going to do it, I promise you I
would do it on this show,” he said.
“But the truth is, I’ve got to spend
a little more time with my family.”
His remarks regarding a poten-
tial challenge to Democratic Sen.
Jeanne Shaheen came after his ap-
pearance Tuesday on Capitol Hill,
where he offered combative testi-
mony before the House Judiciary
Committee regarding potential
obstruction of justice by President
Donald Trump.Lewandowski antagonized
Democratic lawmakers on the
panel and refused to answer their
questions about his conversations
with Trump, prompting Chairman
Jerry Nadler to deem his behavior
“completely unacceptable.”
Nadler also said he was consider-
ing holding Lewandowski in con-
tempt of Congress and suggested
the Trump confidant’s attempts
to stifle the Democratic inquiry
bolster the case that the presi-
dent should be impeached on the
grounds that the White House isobstructing congressional over-
sight efforts.
Lewandowski claimed he “actu-
ally spent a lot of time preparing”
for the Judiciary Committee pro-
ceedings, which he dismissed as a
“charade” on Wednesday.
“Now the House Judiciary Com-
mittee wants to go and talk about
impeaching the president of the
United States for something oth-
er than standing up and putting
America first, and if he is charged
with that, then he is guilty,” Le-
wandowski said. “Putting Americafirst is exactly what this president
has done.”
Amid his hourslong testimony,
Lewandowski tweeted out a link
to a website he said was “launched
to help a potential senate run,” en-
couraging his followers to “Sign up
now!” The formal beginning of that
campaign could begin in just two
weeks, he told “Fox & Friends.”
“I think the very beginning of
October, I’m going to let the Ameri-
can people and the people of New
Hampshire know my decision on
the U.S. Senate,” he said.BY QUINT FORGEY
Lewandowski ‘very, very close’ to announcing Senate decision
Arizona has long been touted as a
potential swing state in presidential
elections. Its time may have finally
come.
Demographic shifts, progres-
sive organizing efforts and Presi-
dent Donald Trump’s potential
weakness in the state appear to
be providing Democrats in 2020
with their best shot at capturing
the state since Bill Clinton won it
more than two decades ago.
A new poll, commissioned by
a state labor union and released
Wednesday, shows Trump run-
ning neck and neck with Elizabeth
Warren and Joe Biden in theoretical
matchups.
That poll follows several other
recent surveys with more bad
news for Republicans. A late July
survey — conducted by Trump’s
own pollster — showed the presi-
dent losing to Biden, and another in
August reported a tie. In Arizona’s
closely watched 2020 U.S. Senate
race, two of those polls show GOP
Sen. Martha McSally in a tie and a
third shows her trailing Democrat
Mark Kelly.
“Republicans are very con-
cerned,” said Chuck Coughlin, a
onetime top aide to Republican
Govs. Fife Symington and Jane
Hull. “The ground is shifting.”
The change has been gradually
building for years as more Lati-
nos, who tend to vote Democratic,
have registered and voted in larger
numbers.
During the midterm elections in
2018, Democrats for the first time in
recent memory won three statewide
elected offices in Arizona. Kyrsten
Sinema’s victory marked the first
time Democrats have won a U.S.
Senate seat from Arizona since
1988; the party also picked up a
handful of state legislative seats.
Two years earlier, Trump be-
came the first GOP presidential
nominee in 20 years to receive less
than 50 percent of the vote.
The polling suggests the days of
writing off Arizona as comfortably
Republican could be ending.
Republicans point out that regis-
tered Republicans vastly outnum-
ber Democrats in the state, Trump
fires up the base like no other can-
didate and the state continues to
be a mecca for retirees, who tend
to vote Republican.
But Trump’s approval rating is
underwater, with 45 percent of
Arizona voters holding a favorable
impression of him and 53 percent
having an unfavorable view — the
overwhelming majority of whom
hold a “very unfavorable view,” ac-
cording to a survey of 520 Arizona
registered voters by Bendixen &
Amandi International. The firm
— which typically surveys for
Democrats and was paid to conduct
this poll by SMART Local 359, the
International Association of Sheet
Metal, Air, Rail and Transporta-
tion Workers — conducted the poll
Sept. 9-12.
Trump is tied with Warren at
42 percent in a general election
matchup and is statistically tied
with Biden — 43 percent to 42 per-
cent — a lead well within the poll’smargin of error of plus or minus 4.
percentage points.
McSally is tied at 42 percent with
Kelly, a former astronaut and the
husband of former Arizona Rep.
and mass-shooting survivor Gabby
Giffords.
“Contrary to the conventional
wisdom that the presidential race
is down to only four swing states —
Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wiscon-
sin and Florida — this poll makes it
clear that Arizona is wide open,”
pollster Fernand Amandi said.
“Arizona is emerging as the new
battleground.”
Amandi’s numbers are in line
with a poll from OH Predictive In-
sights, a nonpartisan Arizona con-
sulting company that conducted a
survey last month showing Biden
at 45 percent and Trump at 43 per-cent. Warren, too, was statistically
tied with Trump, who had 44 per-
cent to her 43 percent. Both Aman-
d i’s pol l a nd OH P red ictive’s fou nd
that Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders
and other candidates fared more
poorly against Trump. OH Predic-
tive showed Kelly leading McSally
by 46 percent to 41 percent in the
Senate race.
In late July, Trump pollster
Tony Fabrizio surveyed Arizona
on behalf of AARP and found
Biden leading Trump, 50 percent
to 45 percent. That poll had an er-
ror margin of 4 percentage points
and found a statistical tie in the
Senate contest.
One quirk in the Senate race
weighing on McSally: She’s fresh
off a bitter 2018 Senate race loss
to Sinema, who has higher favor-ability ratings. McSally was later
appointed to fill the seat held by
Sen. John McCain after his death
and the resignation of his appointed
successor, Jon Kyl, in 2019.
In the Democratic presidential
primary, Amandi’s poll shows
Biden with a slight lead over War-
ren, with the former vice president
at 29 percent and the Massachu-
setts senator at 24 percent. Sanders
trails with 18 percent, followed by
a host of other Democrats who are
polling in the single digits.
“What this poll of Arizona and
what other polling across the coun-
try is suggesting is the Democratic
primary is becoming a two-person
race,” Amandi said.
As in other swing states and
battlegrounds, however, political
insiders wonder if Warren’s politics
are too progressive to carry Arizona
and its 11 Electoral College votes.
Regardless of whomever the Demo-
cratic nominee is, Republicans ex-
pect their base will come home to
Trump as he unloads his substan-
tial war chest on his opponent in
the general election.
“Trump’s numbers with inde-
pendents are terrible right now.
But we know what Trump is going
to do to the Democratic nominee.
Trump knows his universe of vot-
ers,” Coughlin said.
Sean Noble, who advised Repub-
lican Gov. Doug Ducey’s success-
ful campaign, said he believes the
recent polls could be off because
people are lying to pollsters and
that the surveys can’t reliably es-
timate the composition of the elec-
torate because turnout will likely
be at record highs.
Noble said tens of thousands of
Republicans and conservatives
didn’t vote in 2016 for Trump,
but he has brought them home in
Arizona thanks to his conservative
record of cutting regulations and
appointing conservative judges. He
said that should benefit McSally as
well.
“Trump will carry McSally,”
Noble predicted.
Chris Baker, a Republican politi-
cal consultant from Arizona, said
he believes the “polling is more a
reflection of Trump’s flavor of the
day — it will change. My guess is
things will stabilize in the presi-
dential race.”
As for the Senate race, Baker said,
he sees an even tighter race in this
political environment.
“With independent voters, their
eyes are wandering,” Baker said.
“With Democratic voters, there’s
a lot of intensity. But there’s a lot
of intensity on the right as well.”BY MARC CAPUTO
Arizona emerging as a 2020 trouble spot for Trump
Dems could have their
best shot at capturing
the state since 1996
when Bill Clinton won
MARK WILSON/GETTY IMAGES
In 2018, Kyrsten Sinema became the first Democrat elected to the Senate from Arizona since 1988, a sign of the
state’s changing demographics. Polls say a Democratic presidential nominee could win the state in 2020.