Jim_Krane]_Energy_Kingdoms__Oil_and_Political_Sur

(John Hannent) #1
SHIFTING GEARS IN SAUDI ARABIA123

pace at the top. Young Saudis embraced Twitter and Facebook at a level
unmatched nearly anywhere else. The religion- inspired ban on cinema
(only lifted in 2017) combined with excellent internet connectivity
allowed Saudis to become the world’s top per capita consumers of You-
Tube videos. The average Saudi watches at least six internet videos a
day, or 190 million daily for the kingdom.^12 These tools allowed Saudis
to fraternize with the opposite sex and, for a time, to shed their inhibi-
tions about criticizing the regime.
Western academics and other Saudi- watchers had long identified the
jump between generations as a potential trigger mechanism for a “suc-
cession crisis” that could bring down the monarchy.^13 Others, including
some in the region, saw the opposite. Saudi Arabia needed a jolt out of
its lethargy, someone who could realign its system with reality. Initially,
MbS convinced many that he was the right reformer for the job. He won
over skeptics by increasing social freedoms, allowing women to drive.
But gains were soon eclipsed by reckless actions, including repression of
critics and a clampdown on political speech.^14
This combination of power and support soon allowed MbS to over-
turn dramatically the hierarchy of succession that his father had set in
place. In June 2017, Muhammad bin Salman and others within the royal
family forced the removal of the crown prince, Mohammed bin Nayef.
Muhammad bin Salman assumed his uncle’s role as crown prince, posi-
tioning himself a heartbeat from the throne. Royal family sources told
the press that Nayef ’s dismissal had not come as a result of a naked power
grab but stemmed from Nayef ’s inability to end his stubborn addiction
to morphine, a painkilling drug he had been prescribed after being
wounded in a 2009 assassination attempt.^15 Whatever the case, MbS con-
tinued to consolidate power in early 2018 by ousting or detaining key
opponents.


THE PRINCE AND THE PRICE INCREASES

As Muhammad bin Salman came into power, the kingdom’s rising
energy consumption assumed the urgency of an impending train wreck.

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