4 ★ FINANCIAL TIMES Friday6 September 2019

T

he thing about grown-ups is they are supposed

to say when enough is enough.Jim Mattis adh

obviously had enough when he resigned as

Donald Trump’s secretary of defencein

December. Now the retired general — and the

former leading “adult” in Mr Trump’s administration —

says he owes a “duty of silence” to the government in

which he could no longer serve. Some attribute Mr Mattis’s

coyness to the military code of honour — though he retired

from the marines two years before Mr Trump picked him.

Either way he joins a small army of people who could dam-

age Mr Trump but have chosen not to.

Such self-effacement is only adding to America’s demo-

cratic crisis. In the past three years westerners have dis-

covered that their political systems rely less on the sanctity

of the law than on the mettle of people in office. This

applies as much to unelected officials in the judiciary, the

military and the civil service as to elected politicians. It

includes democracies with a written constitution, such as

the US, and ones that run by convention, such as Britain. It

also applies to people who have quit government. The

secret to a strong democracy is its norms, not its rules. To

paraphrase Edmund Burke, the only thing that is neces-

sary for liberal democracy’s demise is for good people to do

nothing.

Mr Mattis is in good company. His recent memoir,Call

Sign Chaos: Learning to Lead, was anticipated as a warning

about the direction in which Mr Trump is taking the US. In

the event, the only president Mr Mattis’s book criticises is

Barack Obama (for letting politics trump military strat-

egy). Mr Mattis thought it

would be inappropriate

to attack a “sitting presi-

dent”. He also thought he

had implied enough

ab out Mr Trump by

resigning as Pentagon

chief last year. The same

applies to Rex Tillerson,

Mr Trump’s first secre-

tary of state, who privately described the president as a

“f***ing moron” but has largely kept his counsel in public.

A similar meekness possessed Robert Mueller, the

former special counsel, when he testified about his report

to Congress in July. Instead of spelling out the contents of

his damning 448-page report, which few Americans have

read, Mr Mueller used recurring non-answers such as

“that’s outside my purview”. LikeMr Mattis, Mr Mueller

held a grenade in his handthat he chose to keep pinned.

Both men served their country with honour for decades.

Neither, it seems, could alter the habits of a lifetime to take

on the once-in-a-lifetime danger posed by Mr Trump.

America’s 45th president has changed the norms. The old

guard continues to function as if the old normal applies.

But the biggest abdication has come from elected

Republicans. Mitt Romney, the senator from Utah, once

called Mr Trump a “phoney” and a “fraud”. It is a fair bet

he still thinks that in private. In public, however, Mr Rom-

ney is a reliable supporter of most things Mr Trump does.

Mr Romney’s silence when Mr Trump smashes another

convention — telling non-white Democratic congress-

women to “go home” for example — is deafening. The same

applies to almost all of his 250 colleagues in Congress. Just

one, Justin Amash, has stood up to Mr Trump. He will not

run again. Mr Trump had made it plain he would back a

primary challenger to unseat him.

The contrast with the self-sacrifice of 21 Conservative

rebels in Britain’s parliament this week is stark. Each of

them knew they would e expelled from the party if theyb

voted against Boris Johnson, the prime minister. “No I

don’t recognise my party,” saidKenneth Clarke, who was

elected in 1970 when Mr Johnson was six. “It’s been taken

over by a knockabout character.” Mr Clarke, unlike

Mr Amash, is nearing the end of his career. Unlike Mr Mat-

tis, however, he was prepared to speak truth to power in

public.

The important lesson is that democracy is not a military

chain of command. The system stands or falls by the

actions of its servants. Shortly before Mr Mattis launched

his memoir, he rejoined the board ofGeneral Dynamics,

one of America’s largest defence contractors. Mr Mattis’s

worth to GD is inversely related to the value of what he can

say about the future of US democracy. The more he speaks

against Mr Trump, the likelier his company will suffer.

[email protected]

GLOBAL INSIGHT

WASHINGTON

Edward

Luce

Silence is golden for

Trump but perilous

for liberal democracy

Like Mr Mattis,

Mr Mueller held a

grenade in his hand

that he chose to

keep pinned

I N T E R N AT I O N A L

JA M E S P O L I T I— WASHINGTON
TO M M I TC H E L L— BEIJING

The US and China have agreed to
resume face-to-face negotiations in a
bid to ease tensions in their rapidly esca-
lating trade war, according to state-
ments from both Washington and Bei-
jing.
The decision to press ahead with a
new round of direct talks came after a
call between Liu He, China’s vice-pre-
mier, and top US officials including Rob-
ert Lighthizer, the US trade representa-
tive, and Steven Mnuchin, the US Treas-
ury secretary.
“They agreed to hold meetings at the
ministerial level in Washington in the
coming weeks,” a USTR spokesperson

said in a statement published on

Wednesday night. “In advance of these

discussions, deputy-level meetings will

take place in mid-September to lay the

ground work for meaningful progress,”

he added.

In its statement, China’s commerce

ministry was more specific with regard

to the timing, saying that the visit to

Washington by top Beijing officials was

set for early October.

Global stocks yesterday reacted posi-

tively. At one point the S&P 500 rose 1.

per cent, boosted by growth in US pri-

vate payrolls and a rebound in US serv-

ices. The CSI 300 benchmark of Shang-

hai- and Shenzhen-listed stocks closed

up 1 per cent and Japan’s Topix ended

the day 1.8 per cent higher.

The resumption of direct talks — the

first since negotiations in Shanghai in

late July — will offer some modest hope

that the US and China can avert a fur-

ther deepening of their trade conflict,

which has raged for a year and a half.

However, few expect the two countries

to move quickly back to the position

they were in last April, when they were

on the verge of adeal.

The decision to press ahead with more

talks comes amid growing alarm about

the impact of the US-China trade war on

the global economy. In the US, the pain

from the tariff battle is showing signs of

spreading from agricultural states,

which were hit hard by China’s retalia-

tory tariffs, to the manufacturing sector,

which is suffering from weakening

demand internationally.

This week, two Republican senators

travelled to Beijing for talks with senior

Chinese officials, including Mr Liu, in a

visit that was widely viewed as an effort

to lay the groundwork for a possible

detente.

“President [Donald] Trump and Pres-

ident Xi [Jinping] have developed a spe-

cial relationship, and we are hopeful

their renewed negotiations proceed to a

productive conclusion,” said David Per-

due, the Georgia senator and cousin of

Sonny Perdue, the US agriculture secre-

tary, adding that the US president

“deserves high marks for standing up

for American workers, farmers, and

manufacturers”.

If no breakthrough is reached in the

negotiations, further escalation is

already scheduled.

On October 1, the $250bn of Chinese

goods that have already been subject to

25 per cent levies will see those tariffs

rise to 30 per cent, further straining

both economies.

In mid-December, a new batch of Chi-

nese imports, worth $156bn, will be hit

by 15 per cent tariffs.

Last month r Trump ramped up theM

trade war, leading to a rapid cycle of tit-

for-tatescalations.

Additional reporting by Daniel Shane in

Hong Kong

Tariff wars

US and China agree to resume talks

If no breakthrough takes

place, further escalation of

spat is already scheduled

Few expect

the two

countries to

move

quickly

back to the

position

they were in

last April

on the verge

of a deal

M I L E S J O H N S O N— ROME

Politicians in Brussels breathed asigh of
relief this week when a new Italian coali-
tion government came together, banish-
ing into opposition the anti-migration
and euro-antagonist Matteo Salvini and
his League party.
Butquestions remain n the future ofo
a p act between the Five Star movement
and its once swornenemy, the centre-
left Democraticparty (PD).
Will the new coalition, led by peo-“
ple’s lawyer” Giuseppe Conte, who con-
tinuesas prime minister, be able to navi-
gateadjustment to public finances this
autumn without triggering anotherrow
with the EU? And if the oalitionc cannot
hold together, will Mr Salvini’s eagueL
party be soon swept back into power?

Who are the main figures in the new
government?
Mr Conte’s previous cabinet dubbed
itself “the government of change”, but

was seen by pponents as a dangerouso

collection of financially reckless popu-

lists. The composition of the “Conte 2”

cabinet is likely to soothe the nerves of

those in Brussels who had feared further

confrontations with Mr Salvini.

The appointment of Roberto Gualtieri

as economy minister, a longstanding PD

member of the European Parliament

and chair of its committee on economic

and monetary affairs, has placed a Brus-

sels veteran in a critical post ahead of

Italy proposing its annual budget this

autumn.Mr Gualtieriis unlikely to find

his every move stalked by Mr Salvini,

although he may yet face criticism from

more radical Five Star figures.

The move by Luigi Di Maio,Five Star

leader, from joint-deputy prime minis-

ter to foreign minister may ave raisedh

eyebrows among Italy’s European allies.

Last year he triggered the mostseri-

ous diplomatic crisis etween Italy andb

France in modern history by offering

support to thegilets jaunes rotesters,p

prompting Emmanuel Macron, France’s

president, to recall his ambassador tem-

porarily from Rome.

Domestically, the appointment of the

independent “technocrat” Luciana

Lamorgese as the replacement for Mr

Salvini at the interior ministry is a ignals

the government wants to calm the het-r

oric on immigration of her predecessor.

Ms Lamorgese is a lawyer who,at the

interior ministry, has dealt with the

technical aspects of implementing

immigration policy. Sheis expected to

differ rom Mr Salvini in political style.f

What will the new government mean

for the economy and ties with the EU?

Investors in Italian government debt

have ignalleds hey believe the newt

government will be less immediately

threatening to the economy than the

last. The interest rate Italy pays to

borrow over 10 years compared to

what Germany pays this week fell to a

lower level than at any time since the

coalition took office in June last year.

Based on the personalities in the

Conte 2 cabinet, many observers believe

the government will take a far more

conciliatory position when dealing with

Brussels on issues such as public

finances and immigration. Mr Conte

had already served as a calmer interme-

diary with Brussels last year when Mr

Salvini was launching blistering tirades

against European interference in the

Italian budget. Now, with Mr Gualtieri

as economy minister, it appears com-

promise ill be the new strategy.w

A draft programme released hist

weeksignalled the new coalition would

try socially inclusive economic policies

whileemphasising financial stability.

The document saidit would promote

an expansionary fiscal policy but “with-

out undermining the balance of public

finances”. It would also try to promote

an agenda inside Europe that would

overcome “excessive rigidity” in EU

budgetary rules, and promote “not only

stability but growth”. Draft policies

include a new minimum wage, lower

taxes for workers, a “green new deal”, a

reform to rules on conflicts of interest,

and promoting a co-ordinated Euro-

pean response to managing migration.

How long could the new government

last, and what could cause it to fall?

Many, including Mr Salvini, predict that

their differences will mean the new coa-

lition cannot last for long.

Its most important hallenge will bec

to pass a budget for next year nd toa

make enough adjustments to avoid a

mandatory increase in VAT.

The governmentmust find €23bn in

savings r additional revenue to avoido

the taxrises.

Any painful spending adjustments

the new governmentmakes may pro-

voke a political reaction, heightening

the risk that the partiessplit rather than

risk owning the responsibility.

Is Matteo Salvini now locked out from

power for the foreseeable future?

Mr Salvini and his party have been

pushed into opposition. But it would be

unwise to write off the League leader.

Opinion polls showthe League is

still Italy’s most popular party, with

above 30 per cent support, and would

still be expected towin ny futurea

elections.

Italy’s coalitionQuestions mount on whether partnership will flourish or succumb to Salvini

LucianaLamorgeseandLuigi Di Maio

serve in the new coalition cabinet

G U Y C H A Z A N— BERLIN

“We plead with you, Chancellor Merkel:
Please help us!”
These were the words of Joshua Wong
and other leaders of the Hong Kong pro-
test movement in anopen letter ot
Angela Merkel published this week in
theBild newspaper, just days before
Angela Merkel’s 12th official trip to
China.
It was well timed. Ms Merkel is the
first important western leader to visit
Beijing since the unrest began in Hong
Kong. And the domestic pressure is
growing on her to use the trip to show
solidarity with the pro-democracy pro-
testers nd to warn Beijing of grave con-a
sequences if it intervenes militarily.
The protesters scored a big victory on
Wednesday whenCarrie Lam, Hong
Kong chief executive,withdrew het
extradition bill that would have allowed
criminal suspects to be transferred to
mainland China for the first time. But
her concession was rebuffed by activists
as “too little, too late”.
Ms Merkel’s response to the Wong let-
ter, in which he asked for a meeting with
the German leader during her trip to
China, was cool. Steffen Seibert, her
spokesman, said she had “taken note” of
it but had no plans to change her travel
plans and meet the activists.
He added that Germany wanted to see
a negotiated end to the unrest in Hong
Kong, which began as a protest against
the extradition bill but which has since
morphed into a broad campaign for
greater democracy.
“We are in favour of a solution that is
based on dialogue and non-violence,
[and] the laws that apply to the people
of Hong Kong,” he added. People there
had a “long tradition of the rule of law”,
which was anchored in the “one coun-
try, two systems” Basic Law of 1997.
“That should, in our view, be the basis of
dialogue and rapprochement.”
Thatresponse reflects the bind Ms
Merkel is in. Ties with China are of the
utmost importance to Berlin, and Ms
Merkel’s government is at pains
to preserve a close rela-
tionship, especially at a
time when its econ-
o m y a p p e a r s t o

beheading for recession, buffeted by

fears of adisorderly Brexit nd thea

shockwaves of President Donald

Trump’s trade war with China.

In 2018, China was Germany’s biggest

trading partner for the third year run-

ning, with bilateral trade volume reach-

ing €199bn, a 6 per cent increase on

2017. Meanwhile, German investment
      in China rose from €30bn in 2010 to
      €81bn in 2017. China is by far the most
      important market for Germany’s big
      carmakers, and Ms Merkel will be
      accompanied on her trip by some of
      those bosses, as well as chief executives
      from the semiconductor, logistics,
      financial services and energy industries.
      Butshe hasfaced accusations from
      campaigners and opposition MPs that
      she has toned down her criticism of
      human rights abuses in China, such as
      the internment of some 1.5m Uighur
      Muslims in detention camps in Xin-
      jiang, for fear of harming the trad-
      ing relationship with Beijing.
      “Too often in the past the

German government has stayed silent

when it should have addressed undemo-

cratic developments,” said Omid

Nouripour, an MP who is the Greens’

spokesman on foreign affairs.

Berlin denies it is soft on China. “We

want [our two countries] to remain in

dialogue with each other... but a dia-

logue must allow for criticism,” said one

senior official.

Though she will not be meeting Mr

Wong, he stressed that Ms Merkel will

have several encounters with Chinese

civil society as part of her trip, including

a discussion with students at Wuhan

University.

Yet even from Ms Merkel’s own party,

the Christian Democratic Union, there

have been calls for her to get tough with

Beijing. Marian Wendt, a CDU MP, said

Germany should resist “kowtowing” to

China and insistit live up to its commit-

ment to the “one country, two systems”

approach that guarantees the rights and

freedoms of Hong Kong’s population.

“We should not shrink from clear

demands, for example on human rights,

out of our supposed economic inter-

ests,” he told the Rheinische Post.

A similar message came from the

Social Democrats, Ms Merkel’s junior

coalition partner. Nils Schmid, the SPD’s

foreign affairs spokesman said the chan-

cellor should make it “abundantly

clear” to the Chinese that Germany

would “not accept” any attempt by Bei-

jing to use troops from the mainland to

violently suppress the protests.

Meanwhile, in Berlin, the talk was all

of Mr Wong’s letter. In it, he appealed to

Ms Merkel to convey to the Chinese

leadership the protesters’ demands,

such as an independent inquiry into

police brutality. “You grew up in [com-

munist] East Germany,” he wrote. “You

experienced directly the terrors of a dic-

tatorial regime... We wish you would

show the same courage and determina-

tion against criminal authoritarian

regimes, which inspired Germany and

Europe before the end of the cold war.”

Editorial Comment age 8p

Sino-German ties. fficial visitO

Merkel faces Hong Kong dilemma in Beijing

Cross-party calls for chancellor

to get tough on China and

show solidarity with protesters

Angela Merkel:

under pressure

before meeting

President Xi

Jinping, below

Jens Büttner/Picture

Alliance/DPA

SEPTEMBER 6 2019 Section:World Time: 5/9/2019- 18:12 User:john.conlon Page Name:WORLD3 USA, Part,Page,Edition:USA, 4, 1