BBC Focus - 09.2019

DISCOVERIES

Whenvolcanoeserupt,themagma

doesn’talwaysshootdirectlyfromtheir

topsasis oftendepictedinthemovies.

It’scommonformagmatoeruptfrom

ventsformedonthevolcano’ssideor

eventravelsideways,forcingitsway

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breachingtheEarth’ssurface.

Asventscanopenanywhereona

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itscaldera– thecauldron-likehollow

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exactlywhereandwhenaneruptionwill

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Now,researchersat theGFZGerman

ResearchCentreforGeosciencesin

Potsdamhavedevelopeda multi-

disciplinarymethodbasedonphysical

andstatisticalanalysisthathasimproved

upontheaccuracyofcurrentmethods.

“Volcanologistsoftenassumethatthe

volcanowillbehavelikeit didinthe

past,” said lead researcher Dr Eleonora

Rivalta. “The problem is that often

only a few tens of vents are visible on

the volcano surface as major eruptive

episodes tend to cover or obliterate

past eruptive patterns. Hence, as

mathematicallysophisticatedasthe

procedurecanbe,sparsedataleadto

coarsemapswithlargeuncertainties.

Moreover,thedynamicsofa volcano

maychangewithtime,sothatvent

locationswillshift.”

Theteamtackledtheseproblemsby

producinga complexcomputermodel

basedonthemostup-to-datephysical

understandingofmagmabehaviour,

itslikelypathofleastresistance,and

statisticaldatagatheredfromprevious

eruptions.Theyappliedthemodelto

historicaldatagatheredfromCampi

Flegrei,a calderaclosetoNaples,Italy,

andwereabletocorrectlyforecastthe

locationofhistoricalventsthatwerenot

usedtotunethemodel.

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formulatethemethodina waythat

worksforallvolcanoesandnotjustone

• togeneraliseit,”saidRivalta.“Wewill
  now perform more tests. If our method
  works well on other volcanoes too, it
  may help [with] planning land usage
  in volcanic areas and forecasting the
  location of future eruptions with a higher
  certainty than previously possible.”

Scientists

develop new

method to help

predict volcano

eruptions

N A T U R A L D I S A S T E R S

GET T Y IMAGES X3, REUTERS, HELMHOLTZ CENTRE

The team tested their

method using data

from Campi Flegrei,

near Naples

Computer model applied to data

from Italian volcano correctly

forecasted the location of

historic vents