200 Chapter 6Chapter 6 || Public OpinionPublic Opinionknowledge of the attacks on September 11, 2001. (Needless to say, both claims are
false.)^2 Statistics like these lead some politicians to take little stock in polls: for example,
Donald Trump’s 2016 campaign allegedly did very little polling. Was Trump smart to
save money on useless polls, or was he just lucky?
Before we blame Americans for believing in conspiracy theories—or take pollsters
to task for mismeasuring public opinion—we need to determine how opinions are
formed and how they are expressed. What does it mean when someone reveals an
opinion, such as a statement about electoral fraud, a desire for change in some policy,
or support for a president? Answering this question requires an understanding
of how opinions are formed and what goes into them. We also need to determine
whether opinions are real, in the sense that they are considered judgments that shape
behavior, and what problems arise when we ask people what they think about politics.
Do Americans really hold the bizarre beliefs that are sometimes expressed in polling
results? Can we take polls seriously, if they produce results like these? Where does public
opinion come from? Can politicians trust it?What Is Public Opinion?
Public opinion describes what the population thinks about politics and government—
what government should be doing, evaluations of what government is doing, and
judgments about elected officials and others who participate in the political process, as
well as the wider set of beliefs that shape these opinions.
Public opinion matters for three reasons. First, citizens’ political actions—including
voting, contributing to campaigns, writing letters to senators, and other kinds of
activism—are driven by their opinions.^3 For example, as we discuss in more detail in
Chapter 8, party identification shapes voting decisions. A voter who thinks of himself
or herself as a Democrat is more likely to vote for Democratic candidates than a voter
who identifies as a Republican.^4 Therefore, if we want to understand an individual’s
behavior or analyze broader political outcomes, such as who wins an election or the fate
of a legislative proposal, we need good data on public opinion.
Second, examining public opinion helps explain the behavior of candidates,
political parties, and other political actors. Later chapters (particularly Chapter 9
and Chapter 11) show a strong link between citizens’ opinions and candidates’DEFINE PUBLIC OPINION AND
EXPLAIN WHY IT MATTERS IN
AMERICAN POLITICSpublic opinion
Citizens’ views on politics and
government actions.Are Americans poorly informed about
politics? One survey found that more
Americans could identify characters
on The Simpsons than could list which
liberties the Bill of Rights guarantees,
and another found most respondents
unable to name any Supreme Court
justices.Full_07_APT_64431_ch06_198-231.indd 200 16/11/18 1:37 PM