What is public opinion? 201campaign strategies and their actions in office. Politicians look to public opinion
to determine what citizens want them to do and how satisfied citizens are with
their behavior in office. For example, in Chapter 11 we see how congressional
representatives are reluctant to cast votes that are inconsistent with their
constituents’ preferences, especially on issues that constituents consider
important. Therefore, to explain a legislator’s votes you need to begin with his
or her constituents’ opinions.
Third, because public opinion is a key to understanding what motivates both citizens
and political officials, it can shed light on the reasons for specific policy outcomes.
For example, changes in the policy mood—the public’s demand for new policies—are
linked to changes in government spending.^5 When people want government to do more,
spending increases more rapidly; when people want government to do less, spending
goes down (or increases more slowly).Different Kinds of Opinion
Modern theories of public opinion distinguish between two types of opinions: opinions
that are preformed and opinions that are formed on the spot as needed. The first kind
of opinions are broad expressions, such as how a person thinks about politics, what a
citizen wants from government, or principles that apply across a range of issues. These
kinds of beliefs typically form early in life and remain stable over time. Some of these
beliefs are obviously political, such as party identification, liberal or conservative
ideology, and judgments about whether elected officials lose touch with citizens.
Liberal or conservative ideology is a good example of a stable opinion: the best way to
predict an American’s ideology at age 40 is to assume it will match his or her ideology at
age 20. The same is true for party identification.
The most important thing to understand about public opinion is that although
ideology and party identification are largely consistent over time, these particular
kinds of opinions are exceptions to the rule.^6 The average person does not maintain
a set of fully formed opinions on all political topics, such as evaluations of all the
candidates for state or local office or assessments of the entire range of government
programs. Instead, most Americans’ political judgments are latent opinions: they are
constructed only as needed, such as when answering a survey question or deciding
on Election Day how to vote. For example, when most people are asked about climate
change, they probably do not have a specific response in mind simply because they have
not thought much about the question. They might have, at best, some vague ideas about
whether climate change is a problem and what should be done about it. Their opinions
become concrete only when they are asked about them.
People who follow politics closely have more preformed opinions than the average
American, whose interest in politics is relatively low. But very few people are soWhoever can change public
opinion can change the
government.—President Abraham Lincolnliberal or conservative
ideology
A way of describing political beliefs
in terms of a position on the spectrum
running from liberal to moderate to
conservative.latent opinion
An opinion formed on the spot, when
it is needed (as distinct from a deeply
held opinion that is stable over time).Politicians read public-opinion
polls closely to gauge whether
their behavior will anger or please
constituents. Few politicians always
follow survey results—but virtually
none would agree with Calvin’s father
that polls should be ignored entirely.Full_07_APT_64431_ch06_198-231.indd 201 16/11/18 1:37 PM