Measuring public opinion 211president. The shift in Democrats’ opinions was much smaller because their opinions
were driven by competing considerations: the changes in Syria (positive) and the move
to a Republican president (negative).
Studies of public opinion confirm the opinion-formation strategies that we’ve just
discussed: most people form the bulk of their opinions on the spot using a wide range
of considerations. Consider the following findings: Attitudes about immigration are
shaped by evaluations of the state of the economy.^30 People judge government spending
proposals differently depending on whether a Republican or a Democrat made the
proposal, using their own party identification as a consideration.^31 Evaluations of
affirmative action programs vary depending on whether the survey question reminds
respondents that their own personal economic well-being may be hurt by these
programs.^32 Voters’ party identification and ideology influence their evaluations
of candidates.^33 Individuals’ willingness to allow protests and other expressions of
opinions they disagree with depends on their belief in tolerance.^34 And if people feel
obligated to help others in need, they are more likely to support government programs
that benefit the poor.^35
In sum, public opinion at the individual level is driven by many considerations.
In the case of gun control, for example, beliefs are likely to depend on individuals’
backgrounds—whether they own a gun, hunt, or know someone who does; their political
beliefs, including their tolerance for government regulation of individual behavior
and even their partisanship; and horrific events involving guns. Thus, although public
opinion may shift somewhat in response to events such as a mass shooting or domestic
terror attack, such events are only one factor that shapes opinion. As a result, even if an
event is momentous, the shift in opinion may be quite small and transitory.“Why
Should
I Care?”
How people form opinions matters because understanding what people say about
politics on the news, or in the classroom, or around the dinner table depends on where
they are coming from. Perhaps an important event has shaped their opinion, maybe
their parents or connection to a social or generational group has influenced them,
or maybe a combination of all of these and more has affected them. Knowing what’s
behind someone’s opinions and arguments on an issue can help you decide how you
feel about that issue and whether or not the other person’s argument carries weight.Measuring Public Opinion
For the most part, information about public opinion comes from mass surveys—
in-person or phone interviews with a relatively small number of individuals that aim
to measure the attitudes of a large population or group of people, such as the residents
of a particular congressional district, evangelicals, senior citizens, or even the
entire adult population in America (see How It Works: Measuring What a Nation of
330 Million Thinks: A Checklist). For large groups such as these, it would be impossible
to survey everyone. So surveys typically involve samples of between a few hundred
and several thousand individuals. One of the principal attractions of mass surveys
is that they can, in theory, provide very accurate estimates of public opinion for a
large population (such as a state or even the entire United States) using relatively
small samples. This property of surveys is detailed in Nuts & Bolts 6.1. For example,population
The group of people whom a
researcher or pollster wants to study,
such as evangelicals, senior citizens,
or Americans.DESCRIBE BASIC SURVEY
METHODS AND POTENTIAL
ISSUES AFFECTING
ACCURACYmass survey
A way to measure public opinion by
interviewing a relatively small sample
of a large population.sample
Within a population, the group of
people surveyed in order to gauge
the whole population’s opinion.
Researchers use samples because it
would be impossible to interview the
entire population.Full_07_APT_64431_ch06_198-231.indd 211 16/11/18 1:38 PM