William_T._Bianco,_David_T._Canon]_American_Polit

Electoral campaigns 309

Electoral campaigns

This section explores the campaign process and what candidates do to convince

people to vote for them on Election Day. Our emphasis is on things that candidates do,

regardless of the office they are running for, across the entire election cycle: the

two-year period between general elections.

The “Fundamentals”

Before talking about all the things candidates and their supporters do to shape

election outcomes, it is crucial to understand that many important factors are

beyond their control. Political scientists call these factors the fundamentals. In part,

the fundamentals include the rules that govern elections. Photo ID requirements

for voting, which shape voter turnout in ways that hurt some candidates (usually

Democrats) and help others, are one good example of electoral rules that affect

outcomes. Another fundamental is how many people in a candidate’s district share

his or her party ID. As we showed in Chapter 8, an individual’s party ID is a strong

influence on his or her voting decisions. Particularly in presidential elections,

economic conditions also have a strong effect on who wins. As you can see in the What

Do the Facts Say? feature, a stronger economy benefits incumbent presidents running

for reelection (for example, Obama in 2012), while a weak economy hurts incumbents

(Jimmy Carter in 1980) and their successors (John McCain in 2008).

Candidates might like to think that they can convince people to vote for them

regardless of circumstances. But the fundamentals like party ID and economic

conditions tell us which candidates face an uphill fight or an easy ride—either

because voters are well aware of these factors before the campaign begins or because

campaigns are mechanisms by which voters become informed about them.^15 It may not

be fair to reward or blame candidates for the state of the economy, as even presidents

have only limited control over economic growth or unemployment levels. For better or

worse, however, a significant fraction of American voters behave this way.^16

It’s important to remember, though, that the fundamentals are not the final word

in an election. The backgrounds of the candidates, their qualifications for office, and

the decisions they make about their campaigns sometimes have significant, even

decisive effects. For example, Democrat Conor Lamb won a 2018 special election in

a strongly Republican Pennsylvania congressional district—President Trump won

there in 2016 by a 20-point margin. At least part of Lamb’s victory was due to a decline

in Trump’s popularity and the resignation of the district’s Republican incumbent due

DESCRIBE THE FEATURES,

STRATEGIES, AND

FUNDING OF CAMPAIGNS

FOR FEDERAL OFFICE

election cycle

The two-year period between general

elections.

“Why

Should

I Care?”

American elections incorporate a complex set of laws, rules, and procedures. And

these rules matter—the candidates who win under current rules might lose given

other reasonable ways to conduct elections. For example, in 2016, Democrat Hillary

Clinton won the popular vote but lost the electoral vote (and the election) due to

close losses in Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Even small changes

in voter registration, voter ID regulations, and other laws in these states might have

given Clinton victories in these states—and the presidency.

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