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to scandal. But Lamb, who took moderate positions on issues such as gun control, was

widely regarded as the stronger, more energetic candidate. Under these conditions,

Republican voters might well have seen Lamb as someone who would do a better job

protecting their district’s interests, and supported him on that basis.

Setting the Stage

On the day after an election, candidates, party officials, and interest groups all start

thinking about the next election cycle. They consider who won and who lost the

election, which incumbents look like safe bets for reelection and which ones might be

vulnerable, who might retire soon or run for another office in the next election, and

whether the election returns reveal new information about what kinds of campaigns or

issues might increase voter turnout or support.

These calculations reflect the costs of running for office. Challengers for House and

Senate seats know that a campaign will consume at least a year of their time and deplete

their financial resources. Presidential campaigns require even more money and effort.

If a potential challenger already holds elected office, such as a state legislator running

for the House or a House member running for the Senate, that person may have to give

up his or her current office to run for a new one.^17

Party organizations and interest groups also face time and money constraints both

in recruiting candidates and in discouraging some people from running. They do

not have the funds to offer significant support to candidates in all 435 congressional

districts, in 33 or 34 Senate races, and in a presidential contest.^18 So which races draw

their attention? The answer depends on many factors, including how well incumbents

did in the last election, how much money those who won have available for the

next election, whether party affiliation in the state or district favors Republicans or

Democrats (and by how much), and whether the newly elected officeholders are likely

to run for reelection.

Party committees and candidates also consider the likelihood that incumbents

might retire, thereby creating an open seat. In the run-up to the 2018 election, some

senior citizen legislators such as Senator Orrin Hatch (R-UT, 84 years old) announced

their retirement, as did younger incumbents who planned to run for another office,

became embroiled in a scandal, or decided to retire from politics. Open seats are of

special interest to potential candidates and other political actors because incumbents

generally hold an election advantage.^19 When a seat opens up, candidates from the

party that does not control the seat know that they may have a better chance to win

because they will not have to run against an incumbent. The incumbent’s party leaders,

in turn, have to recruit an especially strong candidate in order to hold the seat. Thus, in

an election in which a relatively large number of members of Congress choose to retire

(as did Republicans in 2018), the party with fewer retirements is in the better position

because it has fewer open seats to defend.

Presidential campaigns also take incumbency into account. Virtually all first-

term presidents run for reelection. Potential challengers in the opposing party

study the results of the last election to see how many votes the president received

and how this support was distributed across the states to determine their own

chances of winning against the incumbent. Candidates in the president’s party

make the same calculations, although no sitting president in the twentieth century

was denied renomination. Nonetheless, some presidents (Harry Truman in 1952,

Lyndon Johnson in 1968) retired because their chances of being renominated were

not good, while others (Gerald Ford in 1976, Jimmy Carter in 1980) faced tough

primary contests.^20

open seat

An elected position for which there is

no incumbent.

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